Space · resolved market
Will SpaceX have 12 or more launches in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x998eb8421a4c090d5c200844a280ed2ee81fff438e6f0ae047832178bda75a65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 3,802$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…f352backed Yes | 69c | 2,604$1,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926a…3b1ebacked No | 15c | 1,676$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc351…08f7backed No | 15c | 1,197$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked No | 15c | 1,178$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x446e…0dbcbacked No | 50c | 1,004$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed No | 15c | 934$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 8c | 923.11$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed No | 15c | 825$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427e…5ab4backed No | 15c | 823$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed No | 15c | 816$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa098…81e4backed No | 15c | 793$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked No | 15c | 749$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked No | 28c | 679.74$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed No | 11c | 655$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…b418backed No | 15c | 606$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf328…2b78backed Yes | 40c | 602.08$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +149.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed No | 15c | 519$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…3b33backed No | 15c | 517$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…b9a4backed No | 5c | 499.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…c13fbacked No | 15c | 439$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…4942backed No | 15c | 432$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…6f61backed No | 3c | 425.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed No | 15c | 404$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 19c | 401.09$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed No | 15c | 401$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…c888backed No | 15c | 356$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70e7…4a70backed No | 15c | 342$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked No | 15c | 335$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 35c | 332.29$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.58 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8433…6e0fbacked No | 12c | 310$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 52c | 277.87$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf088…32d1backed Yes | 70c | 274.47$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked No | 15c | 263$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 18c | 262.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9a…6fb2backed No | 14c | 252$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed No | 15c | 246$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b5…6cb5backed No | 11c | 235.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed No | 11c | 224.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…be04backed No | 15c | 214$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…9769backed No | 20c | 203.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…eb3abacked No | 15c | 203$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 24c | 200.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd070…715dbacked No | 7c | 184.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…ae40backed No | 15c | 181$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked Yes | 44c | 180$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed Yes | 29c | 174.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d48…d6f1backed No | 15c | 172$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 72c | 169.52$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked Yes | 56c | 167.25$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked No | 15c | 165$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 24c | 163.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e0…ad86backed No | 15c | 163$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 7c | 156.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…80febacked No | 44c | 128$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcc…8ef0backed No | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 39c | 80.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc259…24aabacked Yes | 29c | 79.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed Yes | 30c | 76.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 29c | 75.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb667…90a7backed Yes | 38c | 71.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93be…5f73backed Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 59c | 67.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcda…60a8backed Yes | 32c | 62.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cd…3884backed Yes | 67c | 59.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a7…8f74backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 70c | 49.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3f52backed Yes | 69c | 42.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fc…f6f2backed Yes | 27c | 37.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…c567backed No | 70c | 36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc1…1977backed No | 63c | 31.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Yes | 68c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc1…fd19backed Yes | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX have 12 or more launches in January?this page
- Will SpaceX have exactly 10 launches in January?No won
- Will SpaceX have exactly 11 launches in January?No won
- Will SpaceX have exactly 8 launches in January?No won
- Will SpaceX have exactly 9 launches in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.