TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2d4b…ca7a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
897
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Middle East, grading 76 out of 100 (+0.24 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 76 out of 100; worst Tweets at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT30649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
Middle East — the 306 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$560Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+201%+$1,125.71
Will Trump and Netanyahu hug on Tuesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+63.5%+$8.39
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$147.46
Israel enacts military exemption for Yeshiva students by Sep 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,260Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,260
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$194.93
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.56
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$16.55
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$325Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+138.8%+$451.37
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$2,250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,250
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+232.8%+$61.05
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$444Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$444.45
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$244.57
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$132.49
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$361Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$2,646.92
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$208.47
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$668Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$667.75
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$312.24
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$640Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$639.99
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$270.63
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$240
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$2,080Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,080
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,288Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,287.67
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,701Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,700.73
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$249Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$248.99
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$143.49
Showing 25 of 306 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT11349.6%56 W · 57 L+28.4wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+106.5%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
World Politics — the 113 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nigel Farage win 40–50% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$82.43
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$2,114Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+113.6%+$2,402.4
Will Catherine West be in the Burnham cabinet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$216.61
Will Heidi Alexander be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$6.78
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$564Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+159.2%+$898.88
Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,271Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,270.93
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,575Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,575.31
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,016Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,015.96
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+902.4%+$902.37
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+488.8%+$669.81
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$50.84
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$289.29
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$761Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+203.1%+$1,545.73
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+328%+$281.17
Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+177.4%+$638.48
Will Acción Popular (AP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$21.35
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$293.33
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+569.1%+$388.22
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$8,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+474.7%+$37,975.16
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.89
Will the Social Democrats (SD) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+525%+$104
Will the Democrats (D) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
Will the Pirate Party of Slovenia (PPS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.46
Will The Left (Levica) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.74
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election by less than 10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$31.02
Showing 25 of 113 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT9745.4%44 W · 53 L+22.0wins+0.23per pick23cpaid+88%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
Movies — the 97 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.3
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+528.9%+$772.84
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.81
Will Frankenstein win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+202.2%+$141.52
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+482.5%+$147.97
Will Train Dreams win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+270.7%+$309.33
Will One Battle After Another win Best Original Score at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$32.63
Will Sentimental Value win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$32.63
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$53.74
Will Michael B. Jordan attend the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$708Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$708.39
Will Priyanka Grandhi get engaged on Love is Blind: Ohio?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$198.2
Will Dynasty Ballard get engaged on Love is Blind: Ohio?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.41
Will Araminta Gun get engaged in Bridgerton: Season 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$55.05
Will Timothée Chalamet win Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$69.32
Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+566.7%+$68.95
Will Violet Bridgerton get engaged in Bridgerton: Season 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$57.07
Will a contestant numbered 151 - 175 win Beast Games: Season 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$47.4
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+525%+$105
Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 39m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+203%+$64.81
Will "Crime 101" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+264.6%+$252.69
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$168
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$140
Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$88
Will "Overboard" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (February 10)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+203%+$41.89
Showing 25 of 97 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT8247.6%39 W · 43 L+19.9wins+0.24per pick23cpaid+108.3%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
AI — the 82 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+397.1%+$551.78
Will Waymo launch in Denver by June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.3
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$229.6
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,684Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,684.36
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$434Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+525%+$2,278.21
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$238Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+286.7%+$680.98
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.54
Polymarket surpasses Robinhood on Similar Web in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+204.1%+$195.52
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$409Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+1,108.6%+$4,532.23
Will Artemis II launch by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+306.2%+$116.07
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+618%+$88.27
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.42
GPT-5.4 released by March 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$296.88
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+370.7%+$980.02
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$196.97
GPT-5.3 released by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$47.67
Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+201.1%+$319.84
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+156.4%+$117.15
Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.75
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$278Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+420.1%+$1,169.42
Will Artemis II launch by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+163.2%+$65.26
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+300.4%+$122.26
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$886Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$885.51
Showing 25 of 82 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT5038%19 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+39.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 50 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Putin not meet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$353Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+488.5%+$1,725.39
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$417Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+522.4%+$2,178.5
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.01
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.85
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,666Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,665.55
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$583Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$582.79
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,080Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,080
Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$240
Will Switzerland join the Board of Peace?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Russia join the Board of Peace?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$211Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+194.4%+$409.29
Will India join the Board of Peace?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$56.92
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$123.47
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$560Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$560
Will Russia capture Rodynske by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,042Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,041.5
Will Ukraine re-enter Novomykolaivka by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$240
Will Russia capture Drobysheve by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$102.78
Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+150%+$85.65
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+354.4%+$478.18
Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+163.2%+$24.4
Will Russia enter Bilytske by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$740Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$740
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the February Meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$50.55
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+258.9%+$379.71
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$55.51
Showing 25 of 50 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3930.8%12 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+30.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Steven Tisch be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.53
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$848Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$847.57
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
U.S. Congress member out over Epstein files by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$20.25
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.75
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
Will the number of US flights delayed on April 4 be between 4,500 and 5,000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$230.35
Will John Fetterman vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$86.27
Will the DHS shutdown last 44 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$72.92
Will less than 5000 US flights be delayed on March 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$21.38
Will Bill Gates be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+233.3%+$45.03
Will Bill Clinton Testify to Congress about Epstein?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+207.4%+$98.77
Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+566.7%+$115.29
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+525%+$91.19
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+558.6%+$1,057.06
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$345Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$345.16
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+344.6%+$694.03
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$43.12
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$28.57
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT3724.3%9 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be less than 15k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.8
Will 'Nothing's About To Happen To Me' - Mitski debut week album sales be less than 20k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$96
Will 'Nothing's About To Happen To Me' - Mitski debut week album sales be at least 40k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$96
Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$82.05
Will ‘The Fall-Off’ debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$48
Will Kendrick Lamar win 6 or more Grammys?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+150%+$25.3
Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+378.5%+$162.19
Will Wildflower (Billie Eilish) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$203.22
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$666Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$665.99
Will Olivia Dean win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+289.2%+$430.18
Will "Parachute - Hayley Williams" win Best Alternative Music Performance at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$328Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$327.56
Will "Telemann: Ino - Opera Arias For Soprano - Amanda Forsythe" win Best Classical Solo Vocal Album at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$370Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$369.79
Will "Music By John Williams - John Williams" win Best Music Film at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$400
Will "As Alive As You Need Me To Be - Nine Inch Nails" win Best Rock Song at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$399.99
Will "Sinners" win Best Compilation Soundtrack For Visual Media at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$439Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$438.6
Will "Palabra De To's - Seca - Carín León" win Best Música Mexicana Album at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$400
Will "End Of Summer - Tame Impala" win Best Dance/Electronic Recording at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+203%+$81.21
Will "Anxiety - Doechii" win Best Music Video at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$453Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$452.63
Will Amy Allen win Songwriter of the Year, Non-Classical at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$157.81
Will "Golden - Huntrix: Ejae, Audrey Nuna & Rei Ami" win Best Pop Duo/Group Performance at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$49.82
Will "Manchild - Sabrina Carpenter" win Best Music Video at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$399.99
Will "End of Beginning - Djo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+600.9%+$547.1
Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be between 175k and 200k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+163.2%+$28.26
Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be at least 200k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$64.03
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST3450%17 W · 17 L+8.3wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+102.7%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
Weather — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be at least 1,150 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$116.68
Will there be at least 1,100 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$360
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+284.6%+$34.98
Will there be 18–20 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$378Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+553.6%+$2,090.11
Will there be 20 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$65.5
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+150%+$44.03
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$294Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$293.89
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+177.8%+$30.74
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+205.4%+$49.97
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$20.19
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on February 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$39.49
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 54°F or higher on February 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$210.2
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on February 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$400
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on February 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+150%+$27.47
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on February 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$10.97
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 3 of the 2026 flu season be between 40 and 50?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Will there be 14 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+241.2%+$168.82
Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+529.2%+$618.45
Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$42.78
Will there be 11-13 inches of snow in D.C. this weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+172.8%+$48.35
Will there be less than 4 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+165.5%+$94.46
Will there be 8-10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+194.1%+$38.82
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+595.3%+$302.99
Will there be at least 40 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$42.85
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+256.9%+$79.45
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT2657.7%15 W · 11 L+9.0wins+0.34per pick23cpaid+138.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$79.56
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$925Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT+221.8%+$2,052.11
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$134.9
Will Jabarie Walker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.18
Will Nicholas Sciretta be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.01
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,492Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+243.8%+$3,636.91
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+216.4%+$63.71
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$42.61
Will Janeese Lewis George win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$88.31
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$735.97
Will Eric Swalwell advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.91
Will Derek Grasty advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$540Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$540
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+300%+$84.06
Will Tony Thurmond advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.84
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$274.88
Will Zach Lahn win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$257.68
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$468Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+480.5%+$2,248.66
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$280.97
Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.57
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.14
Will Jace Yarbrough be the Republican Nominee for TX-32?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.78
Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 0% and 5.00%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$270.62
Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 5% and 10.00%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$205.71
Will James Mendrick win the 2026 Illinois Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$31.8
Will Donald Trump make no endorsement or endorse someone other than Ken Paxton, John Cornyn, or Wesley Hunt for the Texas Republican Senate primary by March 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+233.3%+$90.02
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2441.7%10 W · 14 L+4.6wins+0.19per pick22cpaid+70.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+492.2%+$344.5
Trump announces new drug boat strike by March 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.88
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$205.73
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+181.3%+$47.5
Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$129.96
U.S. forces seize another oil ship by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+322.5%+$94.71
U.S. forces seize another oil ship by January 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$162.41
Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+257.1%+$27.69
Will John Ratcliffe visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$199.99
U.S. forces seize another oil ship by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+409.1%+$65.11
U.S. forces seize another oil ship by January 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$57.14
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$91.1
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$160.61
Maduro out by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$157.14
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$28.57
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+527.5%+$150.69
Maduro leaves Venezuela by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+186.7%+$26.66
Will there be exactly four announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+253.6%+$180.92
Will there be zero announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$28.57
Trump announces new drug boat strike by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$28.63
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by December 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+245.5%+$98.68
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$17.93
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+207.8%+$44.52
All 24 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT2437.5%9 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+65.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Commodities — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$414Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$414.39
Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$2,005Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,004.8
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$551Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$550.5
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$354Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$354.17
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$155
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$445Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$444.82
Will Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$435Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$435.36
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$320
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.75
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$840Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$840
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+400%+$200.74
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$633Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$632.82
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,680Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,679.99
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on April 12, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$384Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$384.03
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$484Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$483.9
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$249.89
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$413Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+172.2%+$710.47
Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.55
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$166Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+185.3%+$307.66
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$140.07
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+360.2%+$688.44
Will Iran strike gulf oil facilities by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+400%+$290.67
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by Feb 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$397Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+651.4%+$2,584.19
Will Gold close between $4800 and $4900 at the end of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+189.7%+$81.28
All 24 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT2227.3%6 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.77
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$3,085Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,084.66
Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.5
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.05
Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$45.36
Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$186.84
Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$902Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$901.88
Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+233.3%+$88.39
Will the US lose jobs in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+188.6%+$96.01
Will the US add more than 125k jobs in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$422Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$421.54
Will the January 2026 unemployment rate be ≤4.2%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+197.6%+$210.87
Will monthly inflation be between 2.9% and 3.1% in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+283.1%+$81.25
Will Germany GDP growth in Q4 2025 be exactly 0.2%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$71.43
US fertility rate up in Q3 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+391.7%+$95.19
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.75–3.00 in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$14.28
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50–2.75 in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$93.47
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+390.8%+$390.78
Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be 4.6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$14.29
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.25–3.50 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$23.79
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.75–3.00 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$28.57
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$49.99
All 22 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT1172.7%8 W · 3 L+5.4wins+0.49per pick23cpaid+236.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+244.2%+$130.35
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$24.85
Fed cuts 25 bps in March Odds >15% by February 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$328Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$328
Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve before February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+431.2%+$95.45
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$53.03
Will three people dissent the January Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+217%+$303.81
Will two people dissent the January Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$71.67
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+330.9%+$67.55
Will the December 2025 FOMC decision result in a 25bp cut with >2 dissents?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+513.5%+$128.36
Will the December 2025 FOMC decision result in a 25bp cut with ≤2 dissents?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+404.9%+$159.03
Will two people dissent the December Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+569.1%+$142.23
All 11 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick24cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin outperform Silver in March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.51
Will Affirm Holdings (AFRM) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+254.1%+$47.27
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.46
Will Meta Platforms (META) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of March 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$1,500
Will Microsoft (MSFT) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of March 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,215Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$1,215.2
Will Amazon (AMZN) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of February 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$415Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$414.87
Will Microsoft (MSFT) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of February 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+163.2%+$78.31
Will Microsoft (MSFT) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of January 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+164.4%+$83.41
All 8 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.28per pick30cpaid+87%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST50%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will State Street (STT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Forsen be the NLC 2026 Winter Split MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.29
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.