TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$190,824
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$188,386

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $190,824 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 319 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f2a…58afbacked No0c20,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-42.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7902…ef0dbacked No18c7,386$1,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,361.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes47c4,085$1,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,156.532552%13 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes37c3,677$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,307.2611425.4%29 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab19…3b87backed No71c3,041$2,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,152.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick71cpaid-57.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x438c…aa9ebacked No2c3,017$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes16c2,712$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,278.218247.6%39 W · 43 L+19.9wins+0.24per pick23cpaid+108.3%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0xf6d2…7048backed No1c2,518$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.861010%1 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-73.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes28c2,120$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,532.21241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+93.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x53a3…e5afbacked No1c2,008$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.613438.2%13 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No1c2,004$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3122019.5%43 W · 177 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes77c1,880$1,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.66785.7%6 W · 1 L+3.3wins+0.47per pick39cpaid+165%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x47ae…ee94backed No67c1,809$1,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.011643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes27c1,739$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,273.069333.3%31 W · 62 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes27c1,569$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,146.873652.8%19 W · 17 L+5.5wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+23.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x852e…80a6backed No70c1,498$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes77c1,386$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.821435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa94…3601backed No45c1,345$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-62.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x575f…9287backed Yes12c1,279$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+301.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e32…8a33backed Yes40c1,241$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.651735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-43.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc62a…2638backed No1c1,191$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e84…ef69backed Yes21c1,179$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.991315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-41%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed No34c1,170$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.9790%0 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No5c1,154$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.145012%6 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f68…2238backed Yes55c1,137$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.65955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6813…39e6backed Yes62c1,096$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.481442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid+11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fbf…7328backed No38c1,089$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.191735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98cb…a127backed Yes58c1,064$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.88580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c48…cf0cbacked Yes76c1,036$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.02450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-24.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6159…7501backed No38c1,028$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.641330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes36c1,000$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.6111549.6%57 W · 58 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-2.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes56c984.17$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.3715047.3%71 W · 79 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8196…ab69backed Yes63c975.98$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.241540%6 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-46.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1555…7d82backed Yes32c911.92$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.772100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+505.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x43a6…8b32backed No67c899.99$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.1887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick66cpaid+42.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x34fc…d14dbacked Yes58c894.99$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.91464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ad5…6f41backed No19c851$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.691844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes12c847.82$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.769632.3%31 W · 65 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-21.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x997f…b3c2backed No45c809$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.05450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbecc…f560backed Yes18c800$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6561361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick39cpaid+54.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc94a…ac22backed No42c796$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.32944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+57.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e36…2479backed No19c792$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.481735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ef6…c761backed No46c790.46$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3601735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-44.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58fe…a8c5backed Yes56c753$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.321181.8%9 W · 2 L+4.1wins+0.37per pick44cpaid+96.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x6177…c22abacked Yes63c751$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.87944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+40.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f51…c63cbacked Yes32c742$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.56757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+112.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ca3…9546backed No68c742$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.561040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59ad…e59abacked Yes55c721$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.451838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-38.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2756…42efbacked Yes55c709$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.051145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e9e…9b4ebacked No67c699.99$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa277…1182backed No51c697.74$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3592254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fdb…8ffcbacked Yes75c697.09$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.05966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xecb6…cfe8backed No44c679$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.761127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38c1…2f84backed No37c678$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ee…9238backed No45c678$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.11442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2cb…6e8fbacked No60c672.06$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.081030%3 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick59cpaid-59.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd11f…2d2cbacked No37c671$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.27560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed Yes62c666$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.083540%14 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x03d9…e8c1backed No72c662.09$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.741250%6 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fcc…8ef0backed Yes61c627$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.53366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+44.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16a0…72f1backed No42c615$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.32263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+40.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed No41c602$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.99837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-38.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed No37c590$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.623336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0285…59d6backed No37c569$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.531050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33e2…e1babacked No45c561$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.451338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6435…cbc8backed No10c560.24$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.951741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0787…0ca3backed Yes44c555$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.361384.6%11 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.24per pick61cpaid+38.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9bbc…d620backed No68c543$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.24825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid+10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes36c521.41$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.0621035.7%75 W · 135 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes30c517.01$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.3929430.6%90 W · 204 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4061…f5ebbacked Yes55c508$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.61625%4 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-52.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6478…49f3backed Yes63c479.75$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.511250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x252c…391abacked Yes61c465$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.351154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x12c2…aa71backed No37c455$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.791353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb8…f285backed No45c443$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.352665.4%17 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+33.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd07…0058backed Yes55c443$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.351936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd96e…1ea6backed No40c432$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+54.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes33c428.67$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.5757426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Yes39c427.92$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.296841.2%28 W · 40 L+8.4wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+54.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xedab…8926backed No32c418$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked Yes35c415.65$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.267020%14 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No22c406.4$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.2320731.9%66 W · 141 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes23c402.66$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.4547938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes11c399.98$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.983540%14 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No13c398$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6218311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86dd…1af2backed Yes44c391.52$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.781747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x272c…7f07backed Yes22c388.33$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.895735.1%20 W · 37 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72cd…ba23backed Yes29c380.82$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.722100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+147.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x26ad…990ebacked Yes61c362$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.182638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39be…5e7bbacked Yes63c354$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.981060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes49c350.15$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.519040.5%77 W · 113 L+14.4wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+0.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3df6…0f0fbacked No39c346$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.94520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid0%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4346…2241backed No39c346$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.942254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddf7…5122backed Yes63c342$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.54333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1ac…d8c5backed No45c340$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1531241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+98.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd41…3796backed Yes63c336$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.321662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.20per pick42cpaid+40.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes34c333$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.787132.4%23 W · 48 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+49.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaec9…3213backed No39c332$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.481136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No21c329.43$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1811720.5%24 W · 93 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-60.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8ae…bb88backed No19c329$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.512138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-25.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.