TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x34fc…d14d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
150
Categories scored
28
Categories below 50
15

Best Category: AI, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category AI at 57 out of 100; worst NFL at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$192.4
Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 11m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$194.22
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.52
Will Marty Supreme win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.19
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$73.92
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.1
Will Hudson Williams attend the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$202.52
Will Jacob Elordi win Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+58.7%+$111.74
Will "One Battle After Another" win Best Film at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$237Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+38.9%+$92.12
Will "I Swear" win Best Casting at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$436Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$436.02
Will "Sentimental Value" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$80.08
Will Eva Victor - Sorry, Baby win Best First-Time Director of a Theatrical Feature Film at the 78th DGA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+455.6%+$323.9
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$22.04
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$111.94
Will Rose Byrne be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+143.9%+$214.82
Will Jacob Elordi be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+100%+$14.5
Will 2000 Meters to Andriivka be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$66.42
Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$289Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+38.9%+$112.28
Will Apocalypse in the Tropics be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+38.9%+$4.48
Will Wagner Moura be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$35.84
Will Jay Kelly be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$33.81
Will Train Dreams be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$21.15
Will Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) win Best Actress – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$127.8
Will Wicked: For Good be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+69.5%+$22.55
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 143m and 157m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+170.3%+$22.05
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1540%6 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.15
Will Mark Daignault win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.04
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$166Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$58.24
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.92
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$125.4
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.16
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$53.72
Will the Washington Wizards have the worst record in the NBA?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$132
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.7
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.2
Will the Chicago Bulls make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.14
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$251Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$83.5
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025–2026 NBA Northwest Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.47
Will the Utah Jazz win more than 18.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+92.3%+$48.48
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+251.7%+$158.88
All 15 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT1464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$263Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$141.75
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.4
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.68
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$287.91
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$618Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$174.24
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$519Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$375.9
Will Artemis II launch by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$221Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+203%+$448.9
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.50 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.8
Will Jensen Huang say "Training" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.25
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$41
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$15.69
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+29.9%+$39.79
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+27.1%+$41.96
Will Sam Altman say "Nvidia" or "Bubble" on The Tonight Show on December 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+85.2%+$126.96
All 14 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT1435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$302Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$560.95
Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.93
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.01
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.62
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+75.4%+$116.1
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$16.74
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$61.77
Hezbollah strike on Israel by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$77.88
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+78.6%+$32.12
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+400%+$100.8
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+96.1%+$117.11
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$106.92
Will Trump say "Think about" during meeting with Netanyahu?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$146.16
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$134.64
All 14 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT1435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.16
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$317Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$94.76
Canada recession before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$275.04
Will United Left (BSP) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$90.39
Will Starmer say "Passover" or "Easter" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.48
Will Tisza win at least 100 seats?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$621Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$305.91
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$386Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$207.9
Will Democrats 66 (D66) win the most seats in Amsterdam’s 2026 municipal election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.4
Will the Labour Party (PvdA) win the most seats in Amsterdam’s 2026 municipal election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$92.8
Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.5
Will GL/PvdA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$61.74
Will the Japan Innovation Party be part of the governing coalition as a result of the 2026 Japanese snap election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$31.21
Will Daniel Băluță get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$166.95
Will Catalin Drula finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$69.7
All 14 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Solstice launch a token by December 31 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.07
Octra FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.03
Infinex FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$17.28
Infinex FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$34.81
Ranger FDV above $30M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$30.21
Will Infrared launch a token by September 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+72.4%+$37.43
Will Almanak FDV above $120M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+185.7%+$177.45
Will Stable launch a token in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$20.1
Over 30,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+270.4%+$121.18
Over $5M committed to the Makina public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$61.56
All 10 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick35cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Seattle have less than 2.5 inches of precipitation in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$527Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$148.5
Will there be at least 1450 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.62
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$425Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$424.72
Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+156.4%+$86.62
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+244.8%+$268.38
Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$12.99
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.8
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+53.8%+$38.5
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$61.08
All 9 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-78.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-73%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+153.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Asian League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+179.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blackburn Beavers vs. Eastern Illinois Panthersbacked Eastern Illinois Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,041Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+25.3%+$263.41
Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks vs. North Carolina Central Eaglesbacked Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.75
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs. Grambling State Tigersbacked Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+614.3%+$298.42
All 3 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+121.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin outperform Silver in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.36
Will Tesla (TSLA) hit a 52-Week High by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+343.3%+$428.26
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 19, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+56.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Borussia Dortmund advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$418Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$417.56
Will Club Brugge advance to the round of 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$585Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+31.6%+$184.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$704.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Igor Jesus score the most goals in the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$203Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$331.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+77.9%+$84.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$896Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$267.49
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 28, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$15.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$82.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will two people dissent the December Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$56.43
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tyler1 shave his head by June 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$255.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahcebacked Fenerbahce · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$545Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$544.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: sleepers vs M80 (BO3) - VCL North America Playoffsbacked M80 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$193.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.