AI · resolved market
Will Sam Altman say "Nvidia" or "Bubble" on The Tonight Show on December 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b4c326eca78842f7338b7b9b3a4fa0b205da1d847ac25c3750ca226a46cc945
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 51c | 920$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.32 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +39%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…6a86backed Yes | 47c | 654.99$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.1 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 55c | 598.88$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.25 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes | 52c | 581.11$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 48c | 382.84$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.99 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked No | 54c | 276$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.96 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43c4…ea38backed No | 45c | 219.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked No | 51c | 210$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.9 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f93…3300backed Yes | 50c | 200.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd21…007abacked Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…c3d2backed Yes | 53c | 189.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d5f6backed No | 77c | 183$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ee…953bbacked No | 69c | 181.12$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes | 46c | 177$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed No | 47c | 163.77$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed No | 76c | 130.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x303c…4487backed Yes | 29c | 130$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 22c | 124$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…0ab2backed No | 78c | 124$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…ff72backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d6…f54ebacked Yes | 46c | 99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d3…53dcbacked Yes | 22c | 98.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…601fbacked Yes | 54c | 92.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133d…cb66backed Yes | 57c | 66.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8912…1712backed No | 47c | 63.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed No | 49c | 61.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked No | 77c | 59.95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.8wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +180.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…c41fbacked Yes | 50c | 59.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 57c | 58.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked No | 56c | 56.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…35c0backed Yes | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1645…9022backed Yes | 54c | 48.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37cc…c07abacked Yes | 44c | 45.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf0…fd08backed No | 47c | 42.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed No | 40c | 41.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd042…215fbacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc12…eb59backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 51c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…45e9backed Yes | 55c | 36.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Yes | 56c | 35.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.4wins | -0.40per pick | 49cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed No | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481e…be0fbacked Yes | 58c | 32.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7b…a54bbacked Yes | 62c | 32.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…2b5dbacked Yes | 32c | 31.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…a0e2backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…9429backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x17c6…b9ddbacked Yes | 52c | 28.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6484…e7fabacked No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1f…6823backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e3…cb1abacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf810…e877backed Yes | 66c | 24.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…a981backed Yes | 79c | 24.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sam Altman say "Nvidia" or "Bubble" on The Tonight Show on December 8?this page
- Will Sam Altman say "API" or "AGI" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Car" or "Tesla" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "ChatGPT" 10+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Creativity" or "Artist" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Deep Fake" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Elon" or "Musk" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Meme" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "OpenAI" 4+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Polymarket" or "Bet" on The Tonight Show on December 8?Yes won
- Will Sam Altman say "Robot" or "Robotic" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Silicon Valley" or "Nerd" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Sora" 3+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Terminator" or "Movie" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Trump" or "Election" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.