AI · resolved market
Will Sam Altman say "ChatGPT" 10+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98bcf1e2e6cc84f054f0e3ada87bfec5132509be7cf743fd981e2269964ca459
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 79c | 1,240$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.81 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2eb…cd8dbacked Yes | 20c | 712.39$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.07 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…0e32backed Yes | 19c | 513.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…9559backed Yes | 14c | 499.83$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 79c | 468.15$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.85 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8d…edbebacked Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…33a7backed No | 74c | 369.99$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…1146backed Yes | 11c | 325$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 17c | 292.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…e70fbacked Yes | 26c | 260$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8901…e16bbacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9851…1320backed Yes | 16c | 127.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…601fbacked Yes | 20c | 124.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…e8cfbacked No | 79c | 120.69$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +69%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd666…d9d6backed Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked Yes | 17c | 113.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe355…7625backed Yes | 28c | 112.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…7c40backed Yes | 19c | 110.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x982c…82f2backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc5…4626backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked No | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52c4…a3a0backed Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 96.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6205…6778backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…e194backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 35c | 94.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed Yes | 28c | 90.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed Yes | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc84b…946cbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…73adbacked Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98fd…b1a1backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae86…9deabacked Yes | 23c | 76.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…c3d2backed Yes | 27c | 75.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked Yes | 28c | 71.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab9…1419backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c51…51f4backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…31e6backed No | 77c | 57.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 73c | 54.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfab4…564fbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8997…b5f3backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x103d…b4a9backed Yes | 23c | 49.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…1acdbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc12…eb59backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sam Altman say "ChatGPT" 10+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?this page
- Will Sam Altman say "API" or "AGI" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Car" or "Tesla" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Creativity" or "Artist" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Deep Fake" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Elon" or "Musk" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Meme" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Nvidia" or "Bubble" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "OpenAI" 4+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Polymarket" or "Bet" on The Tonight Show on December 8?Yes won
- Will Sam Altman say "Robot" or "Robotic" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Silicon Valley" or "Nerd" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Sora" 3+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Terminator" or "Movie" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Trump" or "Election" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.