AI · resolved market
Will Sam Altman say "Robot" or "Robotic" on The Tonight Show on December 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x523fe19de93b1ad4f3cd7239fd2cc78c7bfe7df3d6d2035457a14b15c6f396c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c60…f27ebacked No | 50c | 7,576$3,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,788 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd41f…989dbacked Yes | 50c | 3,793$1,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,896.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…be8fbacked Yes | 50c | 3,783$1,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,891.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2eb…cd8dbacked Yes | 47c | 1,976$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.56 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.19per pick | 13cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x60b7…ff2fbacked No | 49c | 999.97$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.99 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.28 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +39%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 44c | 261.65$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.46 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 59c | 222.82$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.16 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…e8a8backed Yes | 55c | 180.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked No | 54c | 147.44$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…d3aabacked Yes | 42c | 99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.38per pick | 44cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf049…29fdbacked No | 58c | 99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ee…953bbacked No | 54c | 93.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 55c | 79.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked No | 78c | 51.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.8wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +180.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd042…215fbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc01a…5fcfbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 49c | 43.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…a0e2backed Yes | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 42c | 41.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…e633backed Yes | 59c | 39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…5f02backed No | 41c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ba…0c1bbacked Yes | 51c | 37.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 46c | 34.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…df3bbacked No | 44c | 30.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked Yes | 57c | 29.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…84aabacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3091…013cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4626…d40bbacked Yes | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sam Altman say "Robot" or "Robotic" on The Tonight Show on December 8?this page
- Will Sam Altman say "API" or "AGI" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Car" or "Tesla" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "ChatGPT" 10+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Creativity" or "Artist" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Deep Fake" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Elon" or "Musk" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Meme" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Nvidia" or "Bubble" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "OpenAI" 4+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Polymarket" or "Bet" on The Tonight Show on December 8?Yes won
- Will Sam Altman say "Silicon Valley" or "Nerd" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Sora" 3+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Terminator" or "Movie" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Trump" or "Election" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.