AI · resolved market
Will Sam Altman say "Polymarket" or "Bet" on The Tonight Show on December 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9914d326ccdbdee546c4acd309175a2a8b3a7dc68fe2f6acff0344fa98fb13ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 10c | 2,061$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,853.63 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.8wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +180.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0e…c45bbacked Yes | 77c | 1,532$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d1…4069backed Yes | 17c | 1,197$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +177.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…e9adbacked Yes | 24c | 846.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked No | 8c | 700$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…578fbacked No | 74c | 641.09$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…e8cfbacked Yes | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +69%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…c003backed No | 4c | 392.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 77c | 350$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.66 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +39%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 15c | 347.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.76 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 76c | 323.43$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.64 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…8733backed Yes | 21c | 321.35$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.29 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…4afbbacked Yes | 24c | 210$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…31e6backed No | 79c | 199.99$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 21c | 199.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.68 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 78c | 170$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.94 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes | 19c | 165.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ee…953bbacked No | 79c | 158.23$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 78c | 147.1$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.3 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca9a…dc46backed No | 71c | 144.83$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb9…74bfbacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…87d5backed Yes | 16c | 123.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.36 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5b…afe2backed Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8dd…2813backed Yes | 22c | 119.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +186.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 79c | 113.18$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.41 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 11c | 101.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.51 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…ff72backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.86 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5d…0049backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 67.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 22c | 51.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x278c…a9a1backed No | 79c | 50.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c4…77f9backed No | 79c | 50.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb42d…f33ebacked Yes | 23c | 49.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…e255backed No | 79c | 38.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…d96cbacked Yes | 30c | 36.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +231.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4626…d40bbacked Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 71c | 33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc12…eb59backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…99bebacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…8639backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4b…f574backed No | 75c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sam Altman say "Polymarket" or "Bet" on The Tonight Show on December 8?this page
- Will Sam Altman say "API" or "AGI" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Car" or "Tesla" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "ChatGPT" 10+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Creativity" or "Artist" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Deep Fake" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Elon" or "Musk" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Meme" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Nvidia" or "Bubble" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "OpenAI" 4+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Robot" or "Robotic" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Silicon Valley" or "Nerd" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Sora" 3+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Terminator" or "Movie" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Trump" or "Election" on The Tonight Show on December 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.