TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2853…3482

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
233
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Middle East, grading 64 out of 100 (+0.12 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 64 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST3663.9%23 W · 13 L+7.0wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+75.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$955Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+78%+$745
Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$167.38
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$356Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$355.5
Will a handshake between Trump and Mamdani only be photographed on November 21 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$76.78
Will Trump and Mamdani not shake hands on November 21 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$85.16
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+1,920.2%+$570.29
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Subway" during his victory/concession speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+218.3%+$89.06
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Fascism" or "Fascist" during his victory/concession speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+53.8%+$17.06
Will Andrew Cuomo say "Thank you" 5+ times during his victory/concession speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$347Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+51.1%+$177.23
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$266Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$265.65
Will Trump visit the Western Wall by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.4
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$510Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+41.1%+$209.6
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$54
Will Trump talk to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$35
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+83.8%+$61.23
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$848Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+194%+$1,644.83
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+100%+$11
Will Trump say "AUKUS" during Australia PM events on October 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+242.3%+$176.6
Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+42.6%+$57.79
Will Trump say "Where are you from" during Australia PM events on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.49
Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 10+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$393Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+44.2%+$173.77
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 4+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+38.4%+$81.82
Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.46
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during announcement today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$122.6
Will Trump say "Tomahawk" or "Patriot" during announcement today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT+27.4%+$13.83
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT3461.8%21 W · 13 L+7.2wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+62.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
Middle East — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Netanyahu visit NYC by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.34
Will FIFA ban or suspend Israel in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+58.7%+$14.8
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by December 29, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$557Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+27.8%+$154.93
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$56
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+354.5%+$62.4
Will Trump say "31 years" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+38.9%+$28
Will Trump say "President Xi" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$21
Will Trump say "Crime" or "Stabbed in the ass" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$61.5
Will Trump say "Kennedy" or "Autism" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$92.36
Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$297Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+34.7%+$103
Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+240.7%+$158.95
Will Trump say "War" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+152%+$39.67
Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+112.8%+$13.25
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 2+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$242Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+35.3%+$85.36
Will Trump say "Erdogan" first during Saudi PM events on November 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$366Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+110.5%+$404.25
Will Trump say "Two Weeks" first during Saudi PM events on November 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+96.1%+$13.82
Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$336Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$336.22
Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$31.55
Will Donald Trump say "Eight wars" during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$47.09
Will Donald Trump say "Abraham Accords" during Syria President events on November 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+60.6%+$28.31
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Egypt summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$81.45
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+52.7%+$13.8
Will Trump say "Department of War" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.65
Will Trump say "Hostage" 6+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+240.9%+$424
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+888.5%+$154.68
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST2744.4%12 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Music — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olivia Dean win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$108.4
Will Let God Sort Em Out (Clipse Pusha T Malice) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$44
Will BTS release a new song in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+300%+$75
Will Rihanna release an album in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.33
Will a Sabrina Carpenter song reach #1 again this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$130.85
Will Underneath the Tree - Kelly Clarkson be in the Billboard Top 10 for the week of January 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$435Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$435
Will All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey be the #1 song on Spotify this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$215
Will DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS by Bad Bunny be the top Spotify album for 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+63.9%+$67.07
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+47.1%+$32
Will Drake release an album by October 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.16
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3250000 and 3500000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.59
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 2750000 and 3000000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.96
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3000000 and 3250000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.19
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 2500000 and 2750000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.57
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be 4000000 or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$960Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT+105.9%+$1,017.22
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3750000 and 4000000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$219.39
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be under 2500000?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$691Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT+183.9%+$1,271.66
Will “The Fate of Ophelia” have 1.5 Million Likes on Friday at Noon?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+108.7%+$118.51
Will Bad Bunny say "Puerto Rico" during SNL appearance on October 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$27.5
Will Taylor Swift release a new original song by October 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,927Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT+301.6%+$5,812.11
Will Swag II first-week album sales be between 75000 and 100000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT+1,833.7%+$201.76
Will Swag II first-week album sales be between 100000 and 125000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.47
Will Swag II first-week album sales be under 75000?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$519Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT+115.5%+$599.2
Sabrina Carpenter's 'Man's Best Friend' >375k first week sales?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$446Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT+132.1%+$588.43
Will Taylor Swift release a new original song by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.18
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST2454.2%13 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+59.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
AI — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$372Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$372.26
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+38.9%+$56
Will Sam Altman say "OpenAI" 4+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+341.5%+$270.24
Will Sam Altman say "Deep Fake" on The Tonight Show on December 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$23.3
Will Sam Altman say "Nvidia" or "Bubble" on The Tonight Show on December 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+112.8%+$86.8
Will Sam Altman say "Meme" on The Tonight Show on December 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$11.1
Will Sam Altman say "Polymarket" or "Bet" on The Tonight Show on December 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+805.5%+$90.51
Will F1 be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+25%+$6
Will Superman be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$497Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+27.2%+$135.18
Will Andy Byron rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$144
Will Kendrick Lamar rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$427Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$427
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,276Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$1,276.15
Will Elon Musk rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+69.5%+$102.49
Will Taylor Swift rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$741Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+30%+$222.69
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,119Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+82.5%+$923.31
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$751Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$751.08
Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+296.4%+$247.1
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$21.02
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$108
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+115.1%+$214
Will Sam Altman say "OpenAI" 5+ times during TBPN appearance on October 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+535.2%+$258.04
Will Sam Altman say "GPT" 7+ times during TBPN appearance on October 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.26
Will anyone say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$173Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT+43.1%+$74.74
All 24 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST2321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Switzerland" this week? (January 18)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+124.8%+$23.32
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$24.08
Will Trump say "Invest" or "Investment" during oil executive meetings on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$25
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$955Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$954.5
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+284.6%+$148
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$88
Will Trump say "Trump Family" this week? (December 22 - 28)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$116.22
Will Trump say "Jesus Christ" this week? (December 22 - 28)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$27.84
Will Trump say "Happy New Year" this week? (December 22 - 28)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+57%+$75.12
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$28.53
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+122.2%+$110
Will Trump say "Golden Dome" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+63.9%+$108.55
Will Trump say "Thank you" or "Please" 18+ times at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$40.71
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$109
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$16.02
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$19.86
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$876Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$876.35
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$97.9
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$105.83
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$82.82
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$83.5
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$15.93
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$419.56
All 23 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2152.4%11 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick37cpaid+34.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$27.5
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$12.09
Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$32.07
Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 6 and 8 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will Trump say "Please" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$217Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+103.8%+$224.8
Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$287Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+103.5%+$297.02
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+62.7%+$119.57
Will Trump say "Stupid" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$29
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+67.9%+$56.6
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+444%+$191.71
Will Trump and Zelenskyy hug on Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$46
Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.7
Will Trump say "Hottest Country" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.99
Will Trump say "Crimea" or "Donetsk" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$83.75
Will Trump say "Marco" or "Rubio" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.83
Will Trump say "Rare Earth" or "Mineral" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$97.8
Will Trump say "Thousand / Million / Billion" 12+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,077Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+166.1%+$1,789.27
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+118.7%+$124.19
Will Trump say "Pakistan" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+177.1%+$87.47
Will Trump call Putin “strong” on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+297.8%+$125.37
All 21 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick59cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+257.1%+$287.99
Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,646Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+138%+$2,271.39
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$451Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+43.6%+$196.74
Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,304Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+30.7%+$399.99
Will Powell say "Sorry" during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+49.1%+$52.7
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during September press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$446Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+39.1%+$174.48
Will Powell say "Goal" 15+ times during September press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,200Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+25.8%+$309.94
Will Powell say "Recession" during September press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+103%+$156.05
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during September press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$163.7
Will Powell say "Downbeat" during September press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+100%+$20
Will Powell say "Anchored" 3+ times during September press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+55.9%+$8.33
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during September press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$241Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+74.3%+$179.31
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during September press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.92
Will Powell say "Probability" during September press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
All 14 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Movies — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$30.5
Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+47.1%+$8.32
Will Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+122.2%+$27.5
Will Frankenstein be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$36.5
Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$156.53
Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+38.9%+$84
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+53.8%+$27.4
Will "Sean Combs: The Reckoning: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+117.4%+$13.35
Will "The Spongebob Movie: Search for SquarePants" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 21m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$27.62
Will 'Wicked: For Good – The Soundtrack' debut at No. 1 on the Billboard 200?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+33.7%+$29
Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$17
Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $70m and $75m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT+55.2%+$37.34
All 12 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.09
Will Trump say "King" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.02
Will Trump say "North Korea" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+40.3%+$72.59
Will Trump say "Hell" 4+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$66.02
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.09
Will Trump say "Tariff" 10+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$96.89
Will Trump say "Google" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+147.3%+$81.4
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+84.8%+$91.8
Will Marco Francis win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.23
Will the Progress Party (FrP) win 22% or more of vote in Norwegian election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$29
Will another pairing advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2025, EDT+78.3%+$43.9
All 12 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST1030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-58.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$34
Will anyone say "Crypto" or "DOGE" during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.24
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Trump" 5+ times during Fighting Oligarchy town hall on September 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT+39.6%+$39.8
Will Zohran Mamdani say "ICE" during Fighting Oligarchy town hall on September 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.64
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Pizza" or "Hamburger" during Fighting Oligarchy town hall on September 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.12
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Fascism" or "Fascist" during Fighting Oligarchy town hall on September 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$72.25
Will Zohran Mamdani say "New York" or "New Yorker" 12+ times during Fighting Oligarchy town hall on September 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT+49.9%+$26.08
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Thousand / Million / Billion" 8+ times during Fighting Oligarchy town hall on September 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.75
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Homeless" or "Homelessness" during Fighting Oligarchy town hall on September 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.33
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Socialist" or "Socialism" during Fighting Oligarchy town hall on September 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT+25.9%+$43.98
All 10 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT7100%7 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+76.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.42per pick42cpaid+94.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
UFC — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea beat PSG?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+25%+$11.87
FIFA Club World Cup: Chelsea vs. PSG – To Lift Trophy backed Chelsea · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$39.89
All 2 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 28, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will EA say "Acquisition" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$16.39
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.