Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Erdogan" first during Saudi PM events on November 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb70ed64e30027c6a20ae4d1ff7ca68a8e64111652f517b3692e9aa5f47455212
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc164…d0e3backed Yes | 2c | 3,149$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.67 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 63c | 1,650$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 51c | 1,530$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.5 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 44c | 800$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 50c | 799.99$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.3 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed No | 48c | 770$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.25 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 51c | 712.82$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.22 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…98fdbacked Yes | 54c | 628.51$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 48c | 532.18$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.83 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad9…410abacked Yes | 58c | 312.57$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…0ebcbacked Yes | 10c | 210$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…87b9backed Yes | 10c | 209.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…fa1bbacked Yes | 10c | 209$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…2cfabacked No | 42c | 198$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.17 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…9cebbacked Yes | 31c | 173.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8a…5af6backed Yes | 40c | 121.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes | 12c | 120.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d5…af7fbacked Yes | 45c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c07…0cbcbacked Yes | 9c | 119$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cea…48bcbacked Yes | 56c | 30.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…8aacbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Erdogan" first during Saudi PM events on November 18?this page
- Will Trump say "Apple" or "Nvidia" first during Saudi PM events on November 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" first during Saudi PM events on November 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamala" first during Saudi PM events on November 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Rare Earth" first during Saudi PM events on November 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Transgender" first during Saudi PM events on November 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Two Weeks" first during Saudi PM events on November 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say none of the listed terms during Saudi PM events on November 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.