Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say none of the listed terms during Saudi PM events on November 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd93ad69534d180c71a59557c5c875a10a622397f9e083b33ca2c1f2244d129e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x779f…5971backed Yes | 2c | 939$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 55c | 603.04$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.85 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c3…812dbacked Yes | 44c | 578.57$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…4f29backed Yes | 2c | 494.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc833…0234backed No | 53c | 490.16$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.38 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…f54abacked Yes | 47c | 213.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +68%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 45c | 194.54$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.24 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ba…9d46backed No | 62c | 184.18$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked Yes | 48c | 130$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 52c | 129.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed No | 52c | 125.57$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 40c | 115.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb195…6f85backed Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -6.2wins | -0.44per pick | 51cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…423fbacked Yes | 46c | 100.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd5…aa6fbacked Yes | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…0c51backed Yes | 42c | 61.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…3cc0backed Yes | 50c | 54.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf760…bf84backed Yes | 40c | 50.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x446b…8b5dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…5b7cbacked Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f4…8558backed Yes | 47c | 46.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked No | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3b…a0d7backed No | 57c | 44.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb241…7d46backed No | 64c | 43.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98a…9e86backed Yes | 47c | 43.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Yes | 45c | 39.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Yes | 46c | 39.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 54c | 37.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadc8…6785backed Yes | 44c | 34.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 54c | 31.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…26c9backed No | 63c | 29.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 54c | 26.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd348…b807backed Yes | 47c | 25.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0816…377abacked No | 61c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say none of the listed terms during Saudi PM events on November 18?this page
- Will Trump say "Apple" or "Nvidia" first during Saudi PM events on November 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" first during Saudi PM events on November 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Erdogan" first during Saudi PM events on November 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamala" first during Saudi PM events on November 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Rare Earth" first during Saudi PM events on November 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Transgender" first during Saudi PM events on November 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Two Weeks" first during Saudi PM events on November 18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.