TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x75ac…33d7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
1,411
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: China Taiwan, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category China Taiwan at 60 out of 100; worst Fed Rates at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT49023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 490 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$467Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$467.02
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,095Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,095.08
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$6.62
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.67
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$754Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$753.69
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.99
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+47.8%+$73.8
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$315Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+380.1%+$1,197.51
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.51
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+332.9%+$537.71
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$244.46
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.76
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+133%+$103.82
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.19
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+214.5%+$244.92
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$70
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$90
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$114.17
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.97
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$321Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$321.18
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$646Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$646.04
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$326Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$325.92
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.78
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.44
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.35
Showing 25 of 490 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT32029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 320 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$73.2
Will Bill Clinton say "Epstein" or "Island" 10+ times during his Epstein testimony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$16.95
Will Bill Clinton say "Wedding" during his Epstein testimony?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+42.9%+$12.83
Will Bill Clinton say "Hillary" during his Epstein testimony?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+47.1%+$32
Will Bill Clinton say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Epstein testimony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$12.5
Will Bill Clinton say "President" or "Trump" 3+ times during his Epstein testimony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$18.35
Will Bill Clinton's remarks not air?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$21.99
Will Hillary's remarks not air?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$57.72
Will Hillary say "Secretary" during her Epstein testimony?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+35%+$18.48
Will Hillary say "FBI" during her Epstein testimony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$16.97
Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$226.16
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–45.9% on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$224.82
Will Trump’s approval rating be 42.0–43.9% on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$364Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+204.4%+$744.74
Will Trump’s approval rating be 40.0–41.9% on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.87
Will Elon register the America Party in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,501Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+231.4%+$3,473.18
Will Tony Blair be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+208.9%+$403.4
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$84
Will Tom Hanks be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26.38
Will Sean Combs be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.67
Will David Koch be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$46.2
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$62.93
Nothing Ever Happens: Conspiracy Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$31.88
Will Henry Kissinger be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.51
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$55
Showing 25 of 320 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT19026.3%50 W · 140 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 190 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Warsh say "Echo of History" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+74.8%+$45.82
Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Warsh say "Spending" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+190.1%+$98.04
Will Warsh say "Innovation" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+43.2%+$51.07
Will Warsh say "Projection" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,049Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,048.97
Will Warsh say "Recession" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.5
Will Warsh say "Renovation" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.79
Will Warsh say "Iran" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+25%+$6
Will Warsh say "Task Force" 20+ times during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.75
Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$51.76
Will Warsh say "Independence" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+69.4%+$43
Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$304Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$303.98
Will Warsh say "Consumer Confidence" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.8
Will Warsh say "Tax" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.32
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.82
Will Warsh say "President" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.49
Will Warsh say "Progress" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$159.6
Will Warsh say "Productivity" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Will Warsh say "Uncertainty" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.11
Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+400%+$41.05
Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$13.61
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$42.21
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.99
Showing 25 of 190 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jun 26, 2026, EDT7733.8%26 W · 51 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 77 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.8
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$2,160Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$3,840
Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.3
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$59
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$640Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$640
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$85.5
Zelenskyy wears a suit and tie during next Trump meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$85.17
Will Trump and Zelenskyy’s handshake last 15 seconds or longer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$37.27
Will Trump and Zelenskyy’s handshake last 6–10 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$132.16
Will Trump and Zelenskyy’s handshake last 10–15 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$56.23
Will Trump and Zelenskyy’s handshake last 2–6 seconds?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$261.87
Will Donald Trump say "suit" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$69
Will Donald Trump say "Donbas" or "Crimea" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$79.2
Will Donald Trump say "Biden's war" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$55.4
Will Donald Trump say "dictator" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+28.2%+$9.15
Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+157.3%+$292.86
Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" or "boat" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+58.3%+$99.89
Will Donald Trump say "Kiev" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$77.82
Will Donald Trump say "card" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+26.6%+$30.52
Will Donald Trump say "tariff" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+89.1%+$131.89
Will Donald Trump say "Tomahawk" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+26.6%+$11.36
Will Donald Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$87.52
Will Donald Trump say "two weeks" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$99.48
Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$205.42
Will Donald Trump say "beautiful" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+98.2%+$91.44
Showing 25 of 77 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT6627.3%18 W · 48 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+112.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 66 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$123.15
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+2,400%+$941.91
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$247Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+187.2%+$462.17
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$236.73
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.87
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$163.92
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.05
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+6,566.7%+$984.98
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$73
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+351.1%+$426.96
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.92
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.98
Will Trump say "Auto" or "Automobile" during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+61.3%+$22.37
Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$31.96
Will Trump say "Cook" or "Jensen" during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+29.9%+$3.15
Will Trump say "Woke" or "DEI" during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$24.5
Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$26.15
Will Trump say "High IQ" during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$71
Will Trump say "Google" during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+47.4%+$43.4
Will Trump say "Hottest" during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+156.4%+$21.92
Will Trump say "Dell" during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$61.29
Will Trump say "Tariff" during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10.1
Will Trump say "Anthropic" or "Woke" during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$82.07
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$44.47
Will Trump say "xAI" during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$72.62
Showing 25 of 66 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT5916.9%10 W · 49 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-42.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 59 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.09
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$258Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+231.7%+$598.52
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$29.5
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$248.49
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$263.68
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$360
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$277Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$276.63
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$549Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$548.96
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$319Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+225.3%+$718.78
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+191.2%+$82.48
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$243.64
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$219.39
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.4
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.51
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.8
Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
Will Oman send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Will Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.06
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.8
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$721Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$720.72
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$99
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.31
Showing 25 of 59 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT4725.5%12 W · 35 L+6.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+32.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 47 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x China tariff agreement by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.3
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Walmart acquire TikTok?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.36
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.65
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+302.7%+$135.64
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$294Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+2,720.4%+$7,992.85
Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.32
Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.48
Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.06
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.69
Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.06
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$138.5
Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.01
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$273Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$273.3
Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.41
Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$88
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$179.43
Will Trump say "Forbidden City" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.8
Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.1
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.4
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.14
Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.75
Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.17
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$383Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$382.69
Showing 25 of 47 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT4134.1%14 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.78
Body-cam footage of Maduro capture released by Jan 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$112.95
Will Trump say "Sanction" during oil executive meetings on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$142.85
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+187.8%+$251.07
Will Trump say "Minnesota" or "ICE" during oil executive meetings on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+170.3%+$110.71
Will Trump say "Tariff" during oil executive meetings on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$55.36
Will Trump say "Invest" or "Investment" during oil executive meetings on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$220.5
Will Trump say "Oil" 15+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$87.31
Will Trump say "Stolen" or "Steal" during oil executive meetings on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+212.5%+$77.52
Will Trump say "Biden" during oil executive meetings on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$59.13
Will Trump say "Border" during oil executive meetings on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$71.99
Will Trump say "Maduro" or "Dictator" during oil executive meetings on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$34
Will Trump say "Doug" or "Burgum" during oil executive meetings on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$154
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Russian" during oil executive meetings on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$23.68
Will Trump say "Venezuela" 7+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$67.39
Will Trump say "Gallon" or "Barrel" during oil executive meetings on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$30.99
Maduro mugshot released by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$84
Will Donald Trump say "F-35" or "drone" or "helicopter" at least five times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$64
Will Donald Trump say "Maria" or "Corina" or "Machado" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$13.46
Will Donald Trump say "CIA" or "FBI" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+783.6%+$239.81
Will Donald Trump say "cocaine" at least five times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$140
Will Donald Trump say "Minnesota" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will Donald Trump say "border" at least five times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$71.47
Will Donald Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$87.79
Will Donald Trump say "fentanyl" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+595.7%+$684.98
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST3528.6%10 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Earnings — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pathward Financial (CASH) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+234.1%+$27.38
Will Exxon Mobil (XOM) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$9.72
Will Kinder Morgan (KMI) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$65
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$334Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+229.5%+$765.5
Will Omnicom Group (OMC) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$103.31
Will Concentrix (CNXC) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.55
Will Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.32
Will Citizens Financial Group (CFG) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+33.9%+$21.5
Will Bank of America (BAC) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$42
Will Delta Air Lines (DAL) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.5
Will PepsiCo (PEP) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$81.2
Will Constellation Brands (STZ) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$21
Will Accenture (ACN) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Will Jabil (JBL) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$125.45
Will Micron Tech (MU) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$149.93
Will Fedex (FDX) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2025, EDT+100.1%+$101
Will Bullish (BLSH) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$49.4
Will General Mills (GIS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$152.68
Will anyone say "Alexa Plus" during the Q2 2025 Amazon earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.39
Will anyone say "M3" during the Q3 2025 Apple earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT+284.6%+$73.26
Will anyone say "Grocery" during the Q2 2025 Amazon earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT+1,328.6%+$151.01
Will anyone say "Manufacturing" during the Q3 2025 Apple earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$66
Will anyone say "Tariff" during the Q3 2025 Apple earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.5
Will anyone say "iPhone" during the Q3 2025 Apple earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.76
Will anyone say "Scout" during the Q2 2025 Meta earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.58
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT3423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$130
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.5
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$181.52
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$105
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$489Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$488.73
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$200.22
Will Keir Starmer say "G20" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+143.9%+$74.59
Will Keir Starmer say "United Kingdom" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+222.6%+$25.94
Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$138
Park Sung-jae in jail by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$88.5
Will Trump say "North Korea" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.95
Will Trump say "Hell" 4+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$82.92
Will Trump say "Boeing" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.9
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$42.53
Will Trump say "Kim Jong Un" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.2
Will Trump say "Tariff" 10+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+197.8%+$23.71
Will Trump say "Google" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$64.99
Will Trump say "Nvidia" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.02
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$66.36
Kweon Seong-dong in jail by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$112
Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.78
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.99
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.15
Will Lee Jun-seok be arrested by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$141
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2026, EDT2817.9%5 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid+59.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pamela Evette replace Graham as South Carolina Senator?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+53.6%+$13.96
Will Trump be impeached by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$338Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$338.17
Will Trump endorse a candidate for NYC Mayor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+89.6%+$11
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$205.03
Mike Huckabee confirmed as ambassador to Israel?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.19
Elise Stefanik confirmed as UN ambassador?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2025, EDT+3,663.8%+$5,008.23
Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$452Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST-100%-$452
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$470Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$469.59
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$676Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$676.48
Pam Bondi confirmed as Attorney General?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$217.01
Doug Collins confirmed as Secretary of Veterans Affairs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$90.45
Lee Zeldin confirmed as Administrator of the EPA?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$174.89
Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$211.21
John Ratcliffe confirmed as director of the CIA?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$117.17
Will Jane Timken be appointed as the next Ohio senator?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$26.76
Will James Uthmeier be appointed as the next Florida senator?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$112.17
Will Roy Altman be appointed as the next Florida senator?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$40.64
Will Matt Gaetz be appointed as the next Florida senator?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$54.61
Will Steve Daines be the next Senate Majority Leader?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$96.6
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$468Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$467.52
Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$403Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$403.27
Will Republicans have between 215 and 219 seats in House after election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$35.6
Will Republicans have between 220 and 224 seats in House after election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,601Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+59.8%+$957.42
Will Republicans have between 225 and 229 seats in House after election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$81.32
Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$2,631Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$2,630.88
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2024, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-70.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Oct 9, 2024, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+92.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$126
Will Ethereum dip to $2300 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+284.6%+$296
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 15, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain participate in Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$92.19
Will Israel participate in Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$50.02
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Sep 20, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+123.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT+123.7%+$176.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 17, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,201Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT+38.3%+$460.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson fight rigged?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$289Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST-100%-$288.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Discord IPO in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$98
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.