China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d3a7b23a4dfef29d54d1c3acc3fe6f987481ccadd551795b1a6c96bdc3580b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 2c | 4,250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes | 21c | 2,492$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.72 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -5.6wins | -0.19per pick | 23cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 68c | 1,777$1,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.31 | 18 | 94.4%17 W · 1 L | +7.5wins | +0.42per pick | 53cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 62c | 1,100$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +9.7wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 72+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 74c | 875.66$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.47 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +4.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +135.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5d…1aaabacked Yes | 41c | 776.05$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 30c | 600$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 433.33$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…ea47backed Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 66c | 396.19$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.95 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +5.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +413.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…908bbacked Yes | 39c | 375.24$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 57c | 371.24$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.41 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd2…9693backed Yes | 23c | 329.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…324ebacked No | 70c | 199.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…7c43backed No | 75c | 168.06$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6985…afdfbacked No | 72c | 166.86$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed No | 68c | 143$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +223.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 38c | 131.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 64c | 127$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.7wins | +0.36per pick | 56cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x70ec…1ed5backed Yes | 32c | 123$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 70c | 116.57$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 79c | 108.66$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +5.6wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f8…a031backed Yes | 34c | 102.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9611…1c01backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…2f9fbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec70…e529backed No | 52c | 96.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfde6…7ed6backed No | 65c | 96.62$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…c1e1backed Yes | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 72c | 88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 64c | 85.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 58c | 81.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 68c | 76.75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 56c | 74.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 77c | 72.14$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…6bfdbacked Yes | 27c | 65.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5197…0ce6backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbedd…58a4backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked No | 73c | 57.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +4.2wins | +0.46per pick | 43cpaid | +140.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8c…541cbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 72c | 53.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +4.2wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +152.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 32c | 51.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd93a…39ddbacked Yes | 35c | 45.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…fdecbacked No | 71c | 39.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.31per pick | 60cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2e…d3cabacked Yes | 29c | 34.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x920e…7873backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 28.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 25.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked No | 77c | 24.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 70c | 18.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Forbidden City" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.