TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$229,924
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$220,970

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $229,924 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1fa1…1fa9backed Yes8c10,969$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.8460%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8874…ab1dbacked Yes6c10,515$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes1c7,285$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.544725.5%12 W · 35 L+6.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+32.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes6c5,745$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.5490%0 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x058a…3405backed Yes4c5,498$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes10c5,402$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.59293.4%1 W · 28 L-5.6wins-0.19per pick23cpaid-94.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe191…df7ebacked Yes10c3,356$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf4d…1ee4backed Yes5c3,256$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd421…191cbacked Yes6c2,944$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18080%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9612…205abacked Yes3c2,944$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x604a…d5f8backed Yes4c2,605$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.5990%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1575…cc76backed Yes5c2,373$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd712…df34backed Yes5c2,019$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2140%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72ef…f569backed Yes5c2,000$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes2c1,866$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.954723.4%11 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24bd…d33bbacked Yes6c1,705$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes5c1,626$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50e9…ec47backed Yes9c1,576$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes6c1,554$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.381612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-59.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb99…6e8cbacked Yes13c1,516$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf137…b4b0backed Yes6c1,457$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e89…9a0bbacked Yes7c1,347$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x523a…8e28backed Yes8c1,300$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.46714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-58%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e02…098cbacked Yes5c1,230$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes1c1,200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5568.9%5 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bb4…cb1ebacked Yes7c1,192$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9360…96d5backed Yes9c1,158$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f11…4529backed Yes7c1,146$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47a5…e1febacked Yes5c1,137$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba45…87f3backed Yes2c1,056$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd637…7617backed Yes5c1,054$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd112…6622backed Yes11c1,027$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11330%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43bb…26dbbacked Yes4c1,020$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5802…baebbacked Yes10c1,006$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes5c1,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…5c2abacked Yes4c988.75$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaa7…e4adbacked Yes11c950.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5197…0ce6backed Yes11c921.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002714.8%4 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x62f8…2928backed Yes7c911.27$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc80f…93c8backed Yes4c849.37$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7190%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c846.05$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.971277.9%10 W · 117 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf479…0fe3backed Yes7c832.14$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe182…b624backed Yes3c800$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed1f…893cbacked Yes4c789.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301163.6%7 W · 4 L+5.1wins+0.47per pick17cpaid+365.2%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xf165…26bfbacked Yes7c775.64$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes4c750$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfda…eb15backed Yes10c738.55$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c4a…bdf8backed Yes4c722$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe56a…2ba5backed Yes4c721.21$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x108f…7937backed Yes7c717.29$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3000…9eb1backed Yes4c700$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-55%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0bc…b904backed Yes7c672.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd109…6fa0backed Yes4c651.4$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.391127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21f4…81a6backed Yes8c650.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe976…ce2bbacked Yes8c642.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa465…6b06backed Yes3c614.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd46…6956backed Yes4c597.02$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38c5…09cabacked Yes8c593.12$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x977b…0f75backed Yes4c585.8$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6348…6871backed Yes3c522.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f8…a031backed Yes8c517.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9650%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e22…237ebacked Yes5c505.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadd3…7961backed Yes10c504.65$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b6…2f9fbacked Yes10c500$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf50…e71dbacked Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39d7…14a9backed Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x725b…f2e9backed Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x576a…c4f0backed Yes6c497.06$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a7…6655backed Yes10c495.66$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes5c490.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.52875%6 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+60.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes8c490$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.98633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+36%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5289…8a8ebacked Yes3c488.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c81…ff3dbacked Yes6c479.37$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x01f2…66e9backed Yes4c448.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa448…9eeebacked Yes4c445.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf75a…4061backed Yes5c441.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0677…2a28backed Yes5c425.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4047…b217backed Yes5c420.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3615…c2c3backed Yes5c418.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f93…b91fbacked Yes9c418$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.491010%1 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick28cpaid-39.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4833…74bfbacked Yes9c411.16$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5278…b8c1backed Yes8c406.38$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45e7…090fbacked Yes5c400.09$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48c7…e4b0backed Yes10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-79.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10c9…e999backed Yes6c388$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f79…5487backed Yes8c381.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb777…3ff9backed Yes3c380.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.791338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Yes4c375$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3590…d307backed Yes5c363.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes5c362.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-69.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x018c…9794backed Yes6c352.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7191…53b4backed Yes10c333.74$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd99f…dc99backed Yes5c322.1$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9522…7af0backed Yes5c320$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca37…ab34backed Yes8c312.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb291…cdcabacked Yes4c309.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24bb…34f7backed Yes5c305$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2530%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Yes4c300$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6954…f394backed Yes5c300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c0…b412backed Yes8c298.72$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.