TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$64,016
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$67,132

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,016 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes0c8,384$26 inLost-$25.924725.5%12 W · 35 L+6.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+32.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x80aa…e8eabacked No1c2,870$15 inWon+$2,854.672100%2 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.99per pick1cpaid+15,809.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x604a…d5f8backed Yes3c1,953$49 inLost-$49.1390%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a7…8819backed Yes2c1,368$30 inLost-$3090%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…eb9cbacked Yes1c1,338$20 inLost-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes2c1,189$23 inLost-$23.04911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-69.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e1f…a8b0backed Yes2c1,002$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes1c998.98$10 inLost-$10.431513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-80.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xafd2…9693backed Yes2c900$21 inLost-$20.7175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick20cpaid-80.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a92…8586backed No3c722.32$21 inWon+$701.323100%3 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+2,084.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5197…0ce6backed Yes6c624.1$40 inLost-$402714.8%4 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes5c600$30 inLost-$30110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4e4…2e35backed Yes2c501.78$10 inLost-$1030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34d…7484backed Yes2c463.68$10 inLost-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97f4…1bf3backed Yes5c422.74$23 inLost-$23.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf50…e71dbacked Yes3c393.89$10 inLost-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x601e…7773backed Yes3c357.14$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5278…b8c1backed Yes3c354.97$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99c4…0c89backed Yes4c318.88$14 inLost-$13.88166.3%1 W · 15 L-4.4wins-0.28per pick34cpaid-91.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3ad8…5004backed Yes7c223.72$15 inLost-$14.54333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes5c216.57$10 inLost-$10.12524%6 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2116…eb8fbacked No9c197.44$19 inWon+$178.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick19cpaid+502.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfe8…6d0abacked No50c25.52$13 inWon+$12.76560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+20.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1620…227bbacked No75c15.09$11 inWon+$3.77966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.