China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5341e90b72330a8eb96cb685dcffe51ad41783cc12e91b6858b9bd996b3d5b63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,968,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,781,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,968,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 901 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08ff…ba79backed Yes | 0c | 887,263$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…cb5cbacked Yes | 0c | 490,083$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96cf…644abacked Yes | 1c | 400,619$2,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,952.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 1c | 310,113$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,919.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafd2…9693backed Yes | 0c | 300,757$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.75 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…18f1backed Yes | 1c | 173,376$1,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,940 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa851…87d2backed Yes | 0c | 166,000$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…179abacked Yes | 2c | 162,256$2,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,883 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5d…ea9ebacked Yes | 0c | 137,449$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…8c20backed Yes | 4c | 117,154$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 0c | 112,853$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 0c | 112,000$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.33 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes | 0c | 111,259$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…fbf2backed Yes | 0c | 103,167$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 2c | 89,150$1,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,594.14 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0381…0802backed Yes | 3c | 88,555$2,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,633 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 1c | 88,050$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.33 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de4…8864backed Yes | 5c | 79,795$3,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,740.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc6…7306backed Yes | 1c | 77,587$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 0c | 76,538$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.44 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaa…c521backed Yes | 2c | 72,519$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,535.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x806d…38f3backed Yes | 3c | 71,892$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb617…a5bdbacked Yes | 0c | 68,820$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 1c | 66,637$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.19 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 63c | 65,962$41,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,434.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x737c…a65dbacked Yes | 2c | 65,872$1,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,524.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0166…799cbacked Yes | 0c | 62,424$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 2c | 56,541$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7368…8b3bbacked Yes | 9c | 54,852$5,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,198 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…d9dabacked Yes | 0c | 51,580$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 1c | 50,171$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.58 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…27a3backed Yes | 36c | 50,134$17,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,874.59 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xecb5…72d7backed Yes | 2c | 50,000$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…5df1backed Yes | 2c | 48,364$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee5b…61c9backed Yes | 0c | 47,680$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…04ffbacked Yes | 2c | 43,222$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.28 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x963b…ff0dbacked Yes | 0c | 41,490$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac11…9d3abacked Yes | 4c | 40,000$1,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,779.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…87c3backed Yes | 1c | 38,724$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0be1…c6aabacked Yes | 0c | 38,698$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 38,541$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.91 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…89cfbacked Yes | 17c | 37,980$6,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,299.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x875d…9b53backed Yes | 0c | 36,095$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…ec6dbacked Yes | 0c | 35,870$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x092d…3044backed Yes | 3c | 35,775$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8d…9c0bbacked Yes | 2c | 34,619$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes | 4c | 31,852$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.19 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c75…5d0bbacked Yes | 1c | 31,818$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -68%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa6…2663backed Yes | 2c | 30,141$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4e…818abacked Yes | 34c | 26,738$8,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,958.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…91e3backed Yes | 0c | 26,400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…03b2backed Yes | 0c | 26,148$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576a…c4f0backed Yes | 1c | 26,036$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f43…9b11backed Yes | 0c | 26,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a74…ae2bbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…4255backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 0c | 24,444$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed4d…1a9dbacked Yes | 2c | 23,925$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…f85fbacked Yes | 0c | 23,923$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…7328backed Yes | 1c | 23,379$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x624c…593cbacked Yes | 0c | 21,890$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…7e75backed Yes | 0c | 21,111$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 77c | 21,010$16,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,910.46 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.7wins | +0.36per pick | 56cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…169abacked Yes | 0c | 20,938$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.34 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3658…5c34backed Yes | 1c | 20,769$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…ef02backed Yes | 0c | 20,566$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…a99cbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e26…3edfbacked Yes | 0c | 19,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes | 1c | 19,409$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9785…2c5abacked Yes | 1c | 19,264$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff2…68a2backed Yes | 1c | 18,016$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.55 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 30c | 17,937$5,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,602.1 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 30cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…7b4dbacked Yes | 3c | 17,800$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 17c | 17,624$3,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,608.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +506%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 19c | 17,585$3,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,264.74 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…8c51backed Yes | 0c | 17,288$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x217c…fb9ebacked Yes | 0c | 16,930$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 34c | 16,820$5,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,060.6 | 18 | 94.4%17 W · 1 L | +7.5wins | +0.42per pick | 53cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…3e7bbacked Yes | 0c | 16,718$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…7c8dbacked Yes | 0c | 16,680$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf60…a254backed Yes | 0c | 16,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a32…54fcbacked Yes | 1c | 16,178$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…3830backed Yes | 0c | 16,158$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…b428backed Yes | 3c | 15,787$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.74 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…37a1backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f9…1783backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01d9…27a3backed Yes | 2c | 14,932$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…725abacked Yes | 2c | 14,922$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…29edbacked Yes | 0c | 14,771$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a5…31dabacked Yes | 0c | 14,660$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee9…7434backed Yes | 0c | 14,600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99dd…4303backed Yes | 4c | 14,400$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked Yes | 3c | 14,249$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 14cpaid | +355.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes | 10c | 14,005$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.28 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -5.6wins | -0.19per pick | 23cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2e…2581backed Yes | 0c | 14,000$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes | 1c | 13,209$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac57…5522backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 0c | 12,574$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 35cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Forbidden City" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.