China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d4e7d08ce914c00765fce64ab320336749a017df579faceddf0601adc6c768f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7cf1…8286backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 1c | 7,088$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.06 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 74c | 1,626$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.31 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafd2…9693backed Yes | 18c | 719.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x523a…8e28backed Yes | 29c | 681.47$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 7c | 540.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 8c | 521.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 516.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58cb…6397backed Yes | 20c | 507.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 25c | 473.69$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.34 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 396.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 7c | 340.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 7c | 323.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.38per pick | 22cpaid | +196.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…7190backed Yes | 13c | 286.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…a387backed Yes | 21c | 282.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…fd17backed Yes | 16c | 263.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca22…e78fbacked Yes | 10c | 251.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb16b…3a57backed Yes | 17c | 217.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3068…083dbacked Yes | 32c | 205.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…8174backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +8.3wins | +0.38per pick | 53cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes | 30c | 199.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -5.6wins | -0.19per pick | 23cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xed1f…893cbacked Yes | 15c | 193.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.47per pick | 17cpaid | +365.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x30da…a11dbacked Yes | 11c | 187.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…33b5backed Yes | 8c | 180.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 71c | 174.47$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 13c | 160$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…3b0dbacked Yes | 13c | 156.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…1445backed Yes | 27c | 149.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 75c | 145$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa89a…d889backed Yes | 43c | 136.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.5wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…0b31backed No | 69c | 100.76$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed No | 75c | 99.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x662a…f9b7backed Yes | 12c | 99.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 63c | 92.35$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…2223backed No | 75c | 78.21$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…d2bdbacked Yes | 15c | 70.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5197…0ce6backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bff…7cd6backed No | 73c | 44.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa0…fc82backed Yes | 30c | 40.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde6…7ed6backed Yes | 31c | 34.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 79c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 54c | 26.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x44ee…05a8backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 62cpaid | -59%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5949…7a47backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be2…82fabacked No | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -4.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed No | 68c | 19.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…87cdbacked No | 69c | 17.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 75c | 15.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39f4…6a91backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0254…efdbbacked No | 77c | 14.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked No | 73c | 14.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Forbidden City" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
- Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.