TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$102,027
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$87,622

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,027 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes1c9,817$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.874725.5%12 W · 35 L+6.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+32.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x411a…5a86backed Yes1c5,928$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4980%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0800…d75bbacked Yes0c3,915$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacd1…0689backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No77c1,557$1,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick69cpaid+28.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes13c1,507$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.953043.3%13 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-6.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes19c1,447$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.390%0 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe6e…074ebacked Yes21c1,370$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes15c1,300$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.99293.4%1 W · 28 L-5.6wins-0.19per pick23cpaid-94.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes5c1,143$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.33911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-69.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72de…a5edbacked Yes19c1,040$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43bb…26dbbacked Yes14c999.97$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5ef…c56abacked Yes13c916$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.6260%0 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes9c800$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee0…49d4backed No76c780.75$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+42%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0298…93c4backed No74c705.32$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.381471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.8wins+0.27per pick44cpaid+82.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x506f…e8bbbacked No77c666.86$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.391030%3 W · 7 L-3.2wins-0.32per pick62cpaid-59%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed No80c650.75$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.151894.4%17 W · 1 L+7.5wins+0.42per pick53cpaid+107.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x7c3d…2d7dbacked Yes19c586.49$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbdd7…6497backed No79c578.87$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.05520%1 W · 4 L-2.6wins-0.53per pick73cpaid-74.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xafd2…9693backed Yes14c559.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick20cpaid-80.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1101…9218backed Yes13c540.71$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x95cd…8efebacked Yes19c525.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-35.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe192…c237backed Yes10c517$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86c1…fec1backed Yes12c501.83$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.61333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cc2…e3e3backed No79c500$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes4c465$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.36568.9%5 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b4a…c962backed Yes5c421.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed Yes14c406.15$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0150%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes6c373.83$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.842123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb659…48e5backed Yes23c371.46$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6909…0f72backed Yes15c367.33$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x045c…3977backed Yes13c361.41$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes8c344.28$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.54563.6%2 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8df3…887abacked Yes10c316.59$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7191…53b4backed Yes18c314.58$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211560%9 W · 6 L+5.7wins+0.38per pick22cpaid+196.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x3c5d…1aaabacked Yes25c300$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7550%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes23c297.5$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.433327.3%9 W · 24 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-40.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes13c288.87$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5580%0 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5298…93f8backed Yes7c288.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60cd…93f5backed No78c256.52$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.52450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x731e…f12ebacked Yes16c256.16$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2640%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1f7…2d3cbacked Yes23c255.78$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.83520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-74.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a7e…f25fbacked No79c253.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.16887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick60cpaid+67.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe976…ce2bbacked Yes20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd67…d72dbacked Yes6c249.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f5…a8d5backed Yes13c236.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5351…c7edbacked No79c231.54$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.57633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47a5…e1febacked Yes6c230.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes5c221.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.412733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+88.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d22…7ca1backed Yes13c215.11$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd421…191cbacked Yes14c214.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3080%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc1e…08f0backed Yes10c212.86$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-74.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ffe…e3febacked Yes14c207.64$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1855…68a0backed Yes14c207.14$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2950%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22fc…8f75backed Yes12c205.23$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd109…6fa0backed Yes7c201.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.721127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa18d…9b51backed Yes21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-52.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a47…235bbacked Yes16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9260%0 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x99c4…0c89backed Yes17c199.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34166.3%1 W · 15 L-4.4wins-0.28per pick34cpaid-91.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x07b9…0fbbbacked No78c199.99$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+119.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x07e0…1db9backed Yes8c199.94$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+122.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x526e…7c43backed No78c197.14$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.61030%3 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick58cpaid-56.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x36b4…ac80backed Yes8c195.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Yes24c185.8$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.761464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+80.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc80f…93c8backed Yes10c183.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5690%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x274a…45e5backed Yes17c176.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick42cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes12c168.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.223432.4%11 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…eb9cbacked Yes24c167.78$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3df…b52abacked Yes12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8521…9c0dbacked Yes9c159.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c46…5053backed Yes26c151.18$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No80c147.28$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.462347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+35.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6618…da0fbacked Yes25c141.38$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067e…625bbacked Yes11c132.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf954…ba33backed Yes23c129.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2034…8e5dbacked Yes9c125.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8e6…fa4cbacked Yes16c123.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f79…5487backed Yes26c115.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a2e…d3cabacked Yes9c112$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3280%0 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9177…b89bbacked Yes13c111.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac61…4f1bbacked Yes18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2179…a75fbacked Yes19c109.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f6c…aaf2backed Yes23c108.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5197…0ce6backed Yes19c105.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202714.8%4 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd712…df34backed Yes18c105.34$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.840%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9a…b78ebacked Yes12c104$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4850%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x027e…c97fbacked Yes19c103.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95c5…bd53backed Yes29c103.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes17c103$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.891277.9%10 W · 117 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6117…ed81backed Yes20c100.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce6b…53b2backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1360%0 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6d3c…8b2bbacked Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa06f…cbadbacked Yes22c99.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-58.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0e…49e3backed Yes17c99.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5202…7975backed Yes21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4b36…d61fbacked Yes18c85.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa92…779bbacked Yes22c83$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb17…3bb6backed Yes24c82.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.