TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$300,336
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$277,451

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $300,336 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 677 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed No62c18,483$11,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,076.371580%12 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+21.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes1c14,470$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.994725.5%12 W · 35 L+6.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+32.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf978…f941backed Yes0c13,728$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No44c12,044$5,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,693.111687.5%14 W · 2 L+6.9wins+0.43per pick44cpaid+154.9%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xa2ae…961fbacked Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes24c6,597$1,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,598.24911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-80.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed No44c5,963$2,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,342.361894.4%17 W · 1 L+7.5wins+0.42per pick53cpaid+107.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes0c5,928$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.841526.7%4 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick26cpaid-52.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No48c5,522$2,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,866.481963.2%12 W · 7 L+4.6wins+0.24per pick39cpaid+69.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x8785…0cabbacked Yes1c4,619$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bd7…a265backed Yes65c4,556$2,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,938.6940%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No30c4,547$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,184.493043.3%13 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-6.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeaaf…20c0backed Yes76c3,747$2,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,832.6580%0 W · 8 L-4.1wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No66c3,456$2,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,164.991464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.24per pick41cpaid+75.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x12e4…dfc2backed No21c3,234$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,552.071566.7%10 W · 5 L+5.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+683.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xac11…9d3abacked Yes60c3,000$1,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,804.99616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-77.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85b9…b428backed No38c2,897$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,796.891030%3 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-37.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5207…686bbacked No36c2,868$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,849.042584%21 W · 4 L+9.7wins+0.39per pick45cpaid+94.5%equal weight72+0.19 edge/pick
0xc6fd…53dfbacked Yes1c2,656$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5039…946dbacked No21c2,571$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,025.88683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick48cpaid+84.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No30c2,567$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,785.541833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-27.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No16c2,533$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,137.64450%2 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+268.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6967…1986backed Yes77c2,499$1,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,912250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-34.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70df…9803backed Yes72c2,400$1,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,737.99366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0298…93c4backed No24c2,380$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,813.641471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.8wins+0.27per pick44cpaid+82.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf0d5…c665backed No37c2,351$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,481.82650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+53.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1925…b15dbacked Yes79c2,194$1,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,736.110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes53c2,180$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.531741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No56c2,169$1,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.621650%8 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe350…c0c8backed No27c2,036$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,493.331050%5 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+49.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes20c2,024$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.334723.4%11 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb41…8536backed Yes23c1,951$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec3d…0a55backed Yes1c1,911$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed No27c1,866$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,361.56785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.39per pick47cpaid+117.1%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x447e…2372backed Yes27c1,836$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick37cpaid-72.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5874…6b11backed No52c1,752$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.1311100%11 W · 0 L+5.4wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+413.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xf658…dcfebacked No51c1,715$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.1411100%11 W · 0 L+4.2wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+70.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x997d…5d15backed No20c1,604$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.148100%8 W · 0 L+4.5wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+192.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes42c1,537$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-56.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea47…5728backed Yes50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d5b…5d41backed No48c1,500$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.111586.7%13 W · 2 L+5.1wins+0.34per pick53cpaid+70%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x466a…c444backed No57c1,359$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.92757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick30cpaid+131.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a19…a53ebacked Yes1c1,359$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes59c1,282$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.94128.3%1 W · 11 L-4.2wins-0.35per pick43cpaid-85.5%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xfeac…2713backed Yes79c1,273$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29b6…302fbacked Yes39c1,108$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.2840%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c16…a981backed Yes75c1,106$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.7130%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes43c1,100$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.99293.4%1 W · 28 L-5.6wins-0.19per pick23cpaid-94.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcac5…590ebacked No23c1,088$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+326.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe405…1864backed Yes79c1,061$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x165e…f5aabacked No36c1,055$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.22988.9%8 W · 1 L+4.2wins+0.46per pick43cpaid+140.2%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No21c1,040$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.2910100%10 W · 0 L+5.7wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+216%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x7353…4b0dbacked Yes45c1,020$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.81911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.22per pick33cpaid-78.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0952…a44bbacked No25c999.99$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.993100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+206.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b72…beddbacked No22c994.53$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.73580%4 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.55per pick25cpaid+228.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa94f…6d6fbacked Yes51c980.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x60cd…93f5backed Yes16c960.78$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes23c958.15$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.822123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7af…0158backed Yes39c956.76$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda64…b94cbacked Yes15c955.11$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.5270%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf0c…f7e4backed Yes32c953.94$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.3940%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb9cf…cbfdbacked Yes69c900$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick47cpaid-77.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No52c881.23$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.372733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+88.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked No19c863.83$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.7666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.39per pick27cpaid+158%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes9c842.21$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.06911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-69.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8344…1e09backed Yes77c822.12$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63520%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No21c810.83$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.043444.1%15 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3f9…45a7backed Yes62c809.02$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0a9…0fdcbacked No48c759.79$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.221241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f2c…c700backed Yes40c758.8$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.0240%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked No33c755.58$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.359100%9 W · 0 L+4.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+135.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x407d…1baebacked No51c755.29$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.73475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+78.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes9c735.79$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.81568.9%5 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca38…0b7dbacked Yes41c726.49$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe9b…cb15backed Yes77c723.36$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0622…ed05backed Yes60c705.75$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc43…2b23backed Yes74c705.32$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.2220%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7726…4aeebacked No22c700$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5461070%7 W · 3 L+3.5wins+0.35per pick35cpaid+79.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7e31…454dbacked Yes65c699.99$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.99520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-70.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No21c699.92$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.943100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+161.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2cf…3ea6backed No58c688.31$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.459100%9 W · 0 L+3.1wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+56.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe515…3e99backed Yes27c682.72$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e34…36b1backed Yes76c679.89$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfde6…7ed6backed Yes6c668.21$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.661338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e6d…76f5backed Yes11c659.98$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.150%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b60…a55bbacked Yes34c634.34$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc624…ee24backed No44c628.07$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3501392.3%12 W · 1 L+5.3wins+0.41per pick52cpaid+106.2%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x406f…327dbacked Yes30c593.23$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.940%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c97…5de2backed Yes69c579.97$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39860%0 W · 6 L-3.3wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed No27c579.04$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.822544%11 W · 14 L+5.0wins+0.20per pick24cpaid+30.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x225b…422abacked No18c572.87$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.444100%4 W · 0 L+3.3wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+471.7%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked Yes51c559.3$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.921414.3%2 W · 12 L-4.3wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-75.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1028…8afcbacked Yes9c556.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc23…6043backed No68c548.43$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.951070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94e7…a5c3backed Yes36c548.11$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20060%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb83…77eebacked No72c524.58$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.47728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick57cpaid-59.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Yes79c505.25$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400812.5%1 W · 7 L-4.2wins-0.52per pick65cpaid-84.3%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x3000…9eb1backed Yes32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-55%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x70ff…b65fbacked No23c500$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3851533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+16.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a75…5271backed Yes65c500$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.