TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6967…1986

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
55
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Middle East, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 55 out of 100; worst Commodities at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$122.5
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+28.9%+$173.61
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$6,721Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+59.9%+$4,026.52
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$240
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,244Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+36.7%+$456.78
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$5,645Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+27%+$1,526.72
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$3,336Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,335.84
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$5,941Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+27.1%+$1,607.78
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$600
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$254.55
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+203%+$1,015.15
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$134.78
All 13 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2026, EDT1353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)backed Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$388Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+100%+$388
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$501Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$564.46
Hornets vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2024, EST+35.1%+$78
Kings vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2024, EST-100%-$83.79
Celtics vs. Bucksbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST+56.3%+$115.22
Rockets vs. Pistonsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST+63.9%+$121.48
Magic vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$284Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2024, EST+38.9%+$110.44
Hawks vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2024, EST-100%-$200
Pistons vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2024, EST-100%-$200
Rockets vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$136
Lakers vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2024, EDT+58.7%+$73.98
Lakers vs. Sunsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$300
Trail Blazers vs. Kingsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$50
All 13 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick67cpaid-42.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-39.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$480Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$480
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$768Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+56.2%+$431.99
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-34.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,200
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$524Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$524
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarovabacked Alexandra Eala · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,160Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$840
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$3,417Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$1,395.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$165
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: BBL Esports vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$2,770Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,770.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winnerbacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$690Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$689.99
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.