Commodities · resolved market
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x924a2942747dd75703321a7c8d809c68f6a514c3b0f2a2e64274e02310634669
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,005,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,680,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,005,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 9,028 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 1c | 1,593,795$12,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,219.12 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -7.1wins | -0.22per pick | 46cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 18c | 858,032$150,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150,767.56 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…e798backed Yes | 6c | 714,373$40,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,757.73 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 29c | 526,447$151,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151,036.3 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…47cebacked Yes | 24c | 514,431$123,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123,584.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…be95backed Yes | 24c | 501,073$122,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122,400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 20c | 441,548$88,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88,305.14 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked Yes | 23c | 430,818$98,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98,990.38 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 78c | 420,612$328,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92,152.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 22c | 407,093$91,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91,133.14 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 24c | 399,607$96,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96,648.94 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 20c | 367,756$73,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73,738.39 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 17c | 326,525$55,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55,372.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 32c | 293,789$93,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93,463.94 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 10c | 258,849$26,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,120.63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 19cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 11c | 212,338$22,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,639.26 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 26c | 208,170$53,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,319.96 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 78c | 205,458$160,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,443.11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 24c | 201,041$48,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,247.08 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 23c | 199,353$46,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,572.08 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf661…2259backed No | 76c | 196,920$149,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,083.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed Yes | 11c | 185,038$21,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,006.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 12c | 175,201$21,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,773.08 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6151backed Yes | 0c | 152,066$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 22c | 136,619$29,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,818.71 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 1c | 124,728$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859b…6bbabacked No | 76c | 123,792$93,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,173.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430f…5947backed No | 64c | 122,959$78,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,448.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 24c | 122,006$29,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,123.18 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 29c | 121,007$34,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,920.25 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…6d64backed Yes | 23c | 120,933$27,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,617.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…11d7backed No | 78c | 113,794$89,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,552.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 19c | 112,162$21,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,489.76 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed Yes | 30c | 110,199$33,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,409.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…d531backed Yes | 23c | 100,320$22,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,956.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 73c | 98,952$72,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,462.62 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 28c | 97,083$27,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,628.89 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…b18fbacked Yes | 27c | 96,514$26,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,379.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…03dcbacked No | 72c | 92,044$65,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,105.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…7674backed No | 79c | 90,500$71,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,911.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 67c | 89,374$59,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,799.11 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc065…0fcabacked Yes | 1c | 88,000$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 28c | 87,394$24,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,538.63 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6adc…bebabacked Yes | 50c | 87,148$43,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,550.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…89a1backed No | 75c | 86,552$65,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,260.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked No | 74c | 85,900$63,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,690.37 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed No | 67c | 85,693$57,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,371.52 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 80c | 84,159$67,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,022.23 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…804cbacked Yes | 35c | 83,994$29,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,233.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 30c | 82,358$24,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,607.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7536…d984backed Yes | 23c | 80,555$18,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,125.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 40c | 79,425$31,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,419.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4b…541bbacked No | 77c | 77,997$59,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,107.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1faf…3b02backed Yes | 1c | 77,317$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 27c | 76,380$20,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,901.1 | 119 | 21%25 W · 94 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…7997backed Yes | 52c | 74,310$38,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,400.79 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 41cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 30c | 73,510$21,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,924.81 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f5…2e8dbacked Yes | 24c | 71,901$17,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,418.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f75…af7ebacked Yes | 36c | 70,003$24,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,977.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 1c | 68,556$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.99 | 70 | 7.1%5 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…7994backed Yes | 25c | 67,289$17,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,157.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…bb81backed No | 78c | 63,847$49,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,328.46 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 24c | 63,806$15,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,310.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a2…b04dbacked Yes | 1c | 63,117$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9b…1d68backed Yes | 24c | 61,480$15,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,019.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 68c | 59,933$40,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,428.58 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 39cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed Yes | 31c | 58,710$18,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,165.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7400backed Yes | 60c | 58,319$34,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,976.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb3…0519backed Yes | 4c | 58,250$2,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,178.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 4c | 57,790$2,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,404.16 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…218dbacked Yes | 54c | 53,778$29,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,008.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed No | 72c | 53,733$38,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,081.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…e0b2backed Yes | 26c | 52,465$13,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,797.94 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…a51cbacked Yes | 35c | 51,512$18,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,268.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 15c | 51,425$7,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,662.35 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a3…66a5backed Yes | 11c | 50,558$5,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,430.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558e…2ee7backed Yes | 0c | 50,330$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bd…1fecbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5c…8a51backed Yes | 23c | 49,687$11,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,427.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce3…966bbacked Yes | 35c | 48,821$16,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,890.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…8d46backed Yes | 26c | 48,001$12,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,473.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 19c | 47,632$8,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,938.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 50c | 46,861$23,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,430.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 2c | 46,538$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.74 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…d3cebacked Yes | 19c | 46,166$8,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,605.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd71…d127backed No | 47c | 45,703$21,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,143.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e2…6e12backed No | 72c | 45,602$32,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,955.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…68ecbacked Yes | 22c | 44,600$9,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,812 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 27c | 44,164$11,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,847.77 | 94 | 8.5%8 W · 86 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…c454backed No | 74c | 42,723$31,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,281.67 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…60eebacked Yes | 25c | 39,984$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 75c | 39,204$29,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,773.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…f884backed Yes | 24c | 39,000$9,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,360 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827d…13debacked Yes | 33c | 38,847$12,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,686.47 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…6603backed No | 73c | 38,186$27,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,237.92 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee96…0634backed Yes | 10c | 38,173$3,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,931.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 9c | 38,092$3,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,383.49 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed Yes | 31c | 37,945$11,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,754.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c4…0926backed No | 76c | 37,700$28,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,023 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +250.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ece…3ff8backed Yes | 51c | 37,573$19,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.