TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf673…68ec

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
113
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: NFL, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 54 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT4645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 46 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$422Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+474%+$1,999.52
Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)backed Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+105.8%+$211.51
Spread: Raptors (-2.5)backed Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$284.5
Spread: Hawks (-8.5)backed Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,324Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$1,324.08
Spread: Pistons (-10.5)backed Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$400
Clippers vs. Lakersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$2,090Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$2,089.87
Spread: Lakers (-6.5)backed Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+108.4%+$1,300.83
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
Bucks vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$15,226Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$15,226
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)backed Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$468Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+92.3%+$431.72
Cavaliers vs. Hornets: 1H Moneylinebacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$343Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$343
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)backed Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Pelicans vs. Bucksbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$250
Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+92.3%+$276.92
76ers vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Spread: Lakers (-8.5)backed Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Spread: Heat (-1.5)backed Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+96.1%+$288.24
Nuggets vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+53.8%+$161.54
Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)backed Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+99.5%+$397.91
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)backed Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Spread: Pistons (-13.5)backed Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)backed Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Spread: Hawks (-1.5)backed Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+94.7%+$378.85
Hawks vs. Pacersbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Cavaliers vs. Suns: O/U 223.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Showing 25 of 46 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST2751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kraken vs. Kingsbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,622Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+31.9%+$516.98
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)backed Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$250
Bruins vs. Panthersbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Canadiens vs. Wildbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Sabres vs. Panthersbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+100%+$200
Islanders vs. Capitalsbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$350
Senators vs. Penguinsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+85.2%+$170.37
Canadiens vs. Sabresbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+108.3%+$216.67
Predators vs. Islandersbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+108.3%+$216.67
Capitals vs. Red Wingsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+117.4%+$234.78
Avalanche vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+112.8%+$225.53
Blackhawks vs. Penguinsbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Predators vs. Devilsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Utah vs. Hurricanesbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Kings vs. Sabresbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Flyers vs. Bruinsbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Jets vs. Lightningbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Avalanche vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+132.6%+$265.12
Flyers vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Rangers vs. Islandersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Jets vs. Devilsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+117.4%+$234.78
Kings vs. Red Wingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+112.8%+$338.3
Utah vs. Panthersbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+143.9%+$287.8
Islanders vs. Flyersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+104.1%+$208.16
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)backed Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-64.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-52.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Patriots (-3.5)backed Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+100%+$300
Spread: Rams (-3.5)backed Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+108.3%+$243.75
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+171.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockiesbacked Colorado Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$217.6
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astrosbacked St. Louis Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$82.94
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$570Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$569.68
FC Barcelona vs. FC København: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$200
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$9,812Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$9,812
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Hellas Verona FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$310
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Miami vs. Indiana: O/U 46.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$300
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-01-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$300
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.