TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gen.Gof Gen.G, BNK FEARX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$482,045
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$552,834

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $482,045 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 284 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x72ab…edaabacked BNK FEARX1c63,813$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.13280%0 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Gen.G79c46,005$36,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,755.1564155.7%357 W · 284 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked BNK FEARX16c39,887$6,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,188.491,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d36…68fdbacked BNK FEARX24c30,022$7,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,174.2125751%131 W · 126 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7412…85d0backed BNK FEARX21c12,190$2,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,613.4215829.1%46 W · 112 L-12.8wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-27.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed BNK FEARX21c10,336$2,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,127.2925446.1%117 W · 137 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked BNK FEARX7c10,163$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.931,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Gen.G72c9,699$6,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,702.811,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b5e…83f8backed Gen.G75c8,731$6,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,182.7812850%64 W · 64 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa69d…509bbacked Gen.G79c8,000$6,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6801338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Gen.G76c7,758$5,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,841.7631153.4%166 W · 145 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed BNK FEARX25c7,200$1,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,812.13,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked BNK FEARX27c7,000$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,889.9949940.7%203 W · 296 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked BNK FEARX22c6,350$1,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,396.9819150.8%97 W · 94 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked BNK FEARX17c6,141$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.512,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed BNK FEARX27c6,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,62018945.5%86 W · 103 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed BNK FEARX22c5,994$1,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,318.745248%217 W · 235 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed BNK FEARX9c5,197$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.31,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed BNK FEARX21c4,762$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00085746.3%397 W · 460 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed BNK FEARX23c4,650$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.281,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5f…8a41backed BNK FEARX11c4,477$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.5316040%64 W · 96 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked BNK FEARX8c4,358$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.571,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed BNK FEARX21c4,088$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.696541.5%27 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbd6…5f73backed Gen.G77c4,003$3,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.79439.4%37 W · 57 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-32.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked BNK FEARX26c4,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04066437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1281…8d51backed BNK FEARX25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006735.8%24 W · 43 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed Gen.G73c3,963$2,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.111,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Gen.G80c3,800$3,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76644047.5%209 W · 231 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Gen.G80c3,777$3,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.644264.3%27 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed Gen.G73c3,069$2,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.5139851.8%206 W · 192 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Gen.G75c2,801$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.1681143.5%353 W · 458 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked BNK FEARX4c2,798$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.3959952.8%316 W · 283 L-3.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Gen.G77c2,789$2,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.571,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed Gen.G73c2,750$2,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.59852%51 W · 47 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed Gen.G74c2,677$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.4939749.1%195 W · 202 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf344…13ffbacked Gen.G74c2,552$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.3528166.5%187 W · 94 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Gen.G79c2,544$2,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.61,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f6…71eebacked BNK FEARX21c2,500$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52514041.4%58 W · 82 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x689a…97a4backed BNK FEARX7c2,415$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.029741.2%40 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x910d…cfc0backed Gen.G74c2,348$1,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.4418451.6%95 W · 89 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d75…cf0bbacked BNK FEARX1c2,200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.21766.3%11 W · 165 L-0.5wins0.00per pick7cpaid-46.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Gen.G77c2,187$1,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.9282352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Gen.G78c2,113$1,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.872,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed BNK FEARX5c1,985$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.571,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed BNK FEARX18c1,984$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3661,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xede1…7dd1backed BNK FEARX17c1,800$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31042924.2%104 W · 325 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1626…c80dbacked BNK FEARX23c1,784$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked BNK FEARX23c1,730$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.9553640.3%216 W · 320 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed BNK FEARX25c1,688$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.897052.9%37 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Gen.G77c1,548$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.351,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4283…fbd4backed BNK FEARX22c1,509$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.1845041.1%185 W · 265 L-25.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf673…68ecbacked BNK FEARX21c1,421$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.33633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0002…103ebacked BNK FEARX19c1,376$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.259743.3%42 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed Gen.G78c1,365$1,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.0216155.3%89 W · 72 L-0.6wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8a1…2974backed BNK FEARX23c1,345$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31110030%30 W · 70 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x741e…9014backed BNK FEARX3c1,340$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.88121%17 W · 64 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed BNK FEARX23c1,304$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Gen.G78c1,256$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.361,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed BNK FEARX4c1,200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5294134.5%325 W · 616 L+33.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf540…cc07backed BNK FEARX25c1,200$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30015846.8%74 W · 84 L-0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed BNK FEARX18c1,186$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.472,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed BNK FEARX13c1,170$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.7424750.6%125 W · 122 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd69f…734bbacked BNK FEARX22c1,133$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed BNK FEARX28c1,085$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3009962.6%62 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+2.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe11a…53ebbacked Gen.G76c1,051$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.322060%12 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed BNK FEARX25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25049549.1%243 W · 252 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d01…27cbbacked BNK FEARX27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27029236%105 W · 187 L-0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7689…af2abacked BNK FEARX22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.1417535.4%62 W · 113 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe486…0c26backed BNK FEARX2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202193.2%7 W · 212 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Gen.G79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21079653.1%423 W · 373 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f2f…552cbacked BNK FEARX21c1,000$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.2516349.7%81 W · 82 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Gen.G78c1,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2201,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8804…a3a7backed BNK FEARX21c952.38$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20015450%77 W · 77 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed BNK FEARX15c900$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13440347.4%191 W · 212 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aab…773bbacked BNK FEARX27c885.76$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.16911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-71.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4989…8ff0backed Gen.G74c884.6$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.9912356.9%70 W · 53 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0563…8b03backed BNK FEARX21c882.94$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.4268443.6%298 W · 386 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1090…3ad3backed BNK FEARX12c858.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011243.8%49 W · 63 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc926…8058backed Gen.G73c813.8$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.7325560.8%155 W · 100 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0b4…834ebacked Gen.G74c810.81$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.812470.8%17 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick70cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed BNK FEARX20c799.97$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.991,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked BNK FEARX25c797.99$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.541,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Gen.G76c771.2$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.71,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Gen.G76c760.7$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.6885442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe2b…3be8backed BNK FEARX8c750$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.251947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-27.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Gen.G78c700$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1541,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7d5…d4d3backed Gen.G73c684.21$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.747656.6%43 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x16d8…ba9ebacked Gen.G80c627.64$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.3411141.4%46 W · 65 L-8.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1918…9568backed Gen.G79c620.25$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.257437.8%28 W · 46 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf33c…4c38backed BNK FEARX28c611.13$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.1224065%156 W · 84 L+24.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x77c0…af29backed BNK FEARX12c607.23$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4521819.3%42 W · 176 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed BNK FEARX20c600$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12030050.3%151 W · 149 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed Gen.G78c600$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13264453.9%347 W · 297 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1da7…2e56backed Gen.G73c589.89$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.277663.2%48 W · 28 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Gen.G70c582$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.62343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed BNK FEARX3c577.07$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7814644.5%65 W · 81 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bfc…ce53backed Gen.G72c549.97$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.9914158.2%82 W · 59 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked BNK FEARX11c547.26$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.21,44713.3%192 W · 1,255 L-109.5wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd9de…90ebbacked BNK FEARX28c535.71$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501631.3%5 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x520e…d75abacked Gen.G74c530$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.128837.5%108 W · 180 L-16.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.