TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gen.Gof Gen.G, BNK FEARX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$656,453
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$730,937

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $656,453 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 288 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1b4d…e246backed BNK FEARX24c69,015$16,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,561.429534.7%33 W · 62 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d36…68fdbacked BNK FEARX23c44,188$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00025751%131 W · 126 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Gen.G76c42,010$32,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,929.281,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…edaabacked BNK FEARX0c40,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180280%0 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked BNK FEARX1c34,776$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.0525244.4%112 W · 140 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Gen.G77c26,713$20,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,143.9764155.7%357 W · 284 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked BNK FEARX16c18,393$3,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,022.641,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed BNK FEARX10c16,142$1,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,672.871,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafd7…211cbacked BNK FEARX10c13,620$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,322.41741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Gen.G76c12,222$9,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,933.2831153.4%166 W · 145 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked BNK FEARX13c11,034$1,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,467.752,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b5e…83f8backed Gen.G76c10,000$7,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40012850%64 W · 64 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed BNK FEARX24c9,908$2,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,376.046541.5%27 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked Gen.G75c8,603$6,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,150.8318961.4%116 W · 73 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed BNK FEARX23c7,988$1,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,867.213,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5f…8a41backed BNK FEARX13c7,906$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,051.3516040%64 W · 96 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd812…2558backed BNK FEARX7c7,764$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.9421137%78 W · 133 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked BNK FEARX11c7,322$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.541,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked BNK FEARX26c6,843$1,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,757.6949940.7%203 W · 296 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f28…9291backed Gen.G78c6,420$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419.91560%3 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick75cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked BNK FEARX9c5,751$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.271,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked BNK FEARX2c5,733$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.36297%44 W · 585 L-2.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Gen.G76c5,325$4,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,276.794264.3%27 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Gen.G79c5,155$4,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.021,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked BNK FEARX21c5,000$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.566437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb589…91e3backed BNK FEARX21c4,500$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.9951348%246 W · 267 L+25.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Gen.G76c3,947$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.3752848.9%258 W · 270 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed BNK FEARX19c3,577$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.5282352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed BNK FEARX7c3,511$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.721,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed BNK FEARX24c3,400$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81685746.3%397 W · 460 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x910d…cfc0backed Gen.G78c3,305$2,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.1818451.6%95 W · 89 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde6e…0169backed BNK FEARX12c3,000$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.3140435.1%142 W · 262 L-1.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1281…8d51backed BNK FEARX25c3,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7606735.8%24 W · 43 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Gen.G76c3,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.9981143.5%353 W · 458 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed BNK FEARX15c2,938$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.511,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed BNK FEARX22c2,910$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.239239%153 W · 239 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71c0…13b5backed Gen.G78c2,855$2,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.4221954.3%119 W · 100 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90f6…71eebacked BNK FEARX21c2,800$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58814041.4%58 W · 82 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed BNK FEARX13c2,676$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.572,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed Gen.G72c2,605$1,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.241,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3b8…b4d8backed Gen.G77c2,597$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.3943151.3%221 W · 210 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4991…d4dcbacked BNK FEARX5c2,492$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.713112.9%4 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+331.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed BNK FEARX22c2,237$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5031,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed BNK FEARX10c2,199$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21085652.2%447 W · 409 L+34.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Gen.G78c2,100$1,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4622,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed Gen.G79c2,096$1,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43745248%217 W · 235 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked Gen.G80c2,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4101,00748.2%485 W · 522 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed BNK FEARX2c2,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.187869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa394…89e9backed BNK FEARX23c2,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.994744.7%21 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed BNK FEARX17c1,941$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.2725952.9%137 W · 122 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed BNK FEARX19c1,900$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3581,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed Gen.G77c1,761$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39816155.3%89 W · 72 L-0.6wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked BNK FEARX19c1,756$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.9653640.3%216 W · 320 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1626…c80dbacked Gen.G79c1,755$1,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.22742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa50b…74b2backed BNK FEARX23c1,739$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010443.3%45 W · 59 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked BNK FEARX16c1,727$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.271,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed BNK FEARX8c1,635$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.814644.5%65 W · 81 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Gen.G77c1,627$1,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.171,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed BNK FEARX21c1,536$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.0826942.4%114 W · 155 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed BNK FEARX22c1,500$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33049549.1%243 W · 252 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13d6…926ebacked BNK FEARX17c1,500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25510631.1%33 W · 73 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed BNK FEARX24c1,500$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.991,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c3a…2296backed BNK FEARX7c1,488$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.941533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe11a…53ebbacked Gen.G78c1,413$1,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.22060%12 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6b…9c23backed BNK FEARX11c1,379$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.24714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-52.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf344…13ffbacked Gen.G76c1,356$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.3328166.5%187 W · 94 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Gen.G78c1,355$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.741,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0775…b0c5backed BNK FEARX23c1,353$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.6125547.8%122 W · 133 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed BNK FEARX16c1,251$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.092,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed BNK FEARX20c1,202$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.4371249.2%350 W · 362 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed BNK FEARX21c1,200$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25244047.5%209 W · 231 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f7c…5a30backed BNK FEARX7c1,143$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3328942.6%123 W · 166 L+11.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbd6…5f73backed BNK FEARX10c1,051$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.339439.4%37 W · 57 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-32.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d01…27cbbacked BNK FEARX25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25029236%105 W · 187 L-0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xede1…7dd1backed BNK FEARX20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20042924.2%104 W · 325 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed BNK FEARX7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7021754.8%119 W · 98 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed BNK FEARX19c1,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1901,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0563…8b03backed BNK FEARX13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13068443.6%298 W · 386 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Gen.G79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21079653.1%423 W · 373 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…aecebacked BNK FEARX21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed BNK FEARX20c999.99$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19730050.3%151 W · 149 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed BNK FEARX18c974.25$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.3648448.6%235 W · 249 L+12.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x76d0…c092backed BNK FEARX24c959.54$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.291735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f2f…552cbacked BNK FEARX19c900$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.5416349.7%81 W · 82 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc926…8058backed Gen.G79c886.96$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.2625560.8%155 W · 100 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked Gen.G77c860$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.896057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x98a0…0be8backed Gen.G80c851.98$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.4666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c0…af29backed BNK FEARX17c848.2$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14121819.3%42 W · 176 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Gen.G73c835.41$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.7426354%142 W · 121 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1918…9568backed Gen.G76c810$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.47437.8%28 W · 46 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4283…fbd4backed BNK FEARX25c800$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20045041.1%185 W · 265 L-25.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7745…230bbacked BNK FEARX23c799.99$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1842941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad99…74c1backed BNK FEARX1c750$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-65.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed BNK FEARX24c740.53$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.7340232.8%132 W · 270 L-21.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Gen.G73c700$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18924941.4%103 W · 146 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc872…0cc9backed BNK FEARX12c700$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825648.2%27 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Gen.G77c700$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1611,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a4b…03d6backed BNK FEARX8c700$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543729.7%11 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-35.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0002…103ebacked Gen.G76c650$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1569743.3%42 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7d5…d4d3backed Gen.G77c646.49$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.497656.6%43 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.