TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Raptors (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Raptorsof Raptors, Bucks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,633
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,379

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,633 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Raptors55c9,251$5,079 inWon+$4,172.039,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Bucks45c9,074$4,083 inLost-$4,083.2427747.7%132 W · 145 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Bucks44c4,309$1,896 inLost-$1,896.011,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Raptors56c4,000$2,240 inWon+$1,7601,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Bucks52c3,664$1,890 inLost-$1,889.952,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Raptors48c2,107$1,011 inWon+$1,095.434,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Raptors49c1,472$721 inWon+$750.683,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks45c1,243$563 inLost-$562.656,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Bucks45c1,045$474 inLost-$473.954,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf673…68ecbacked Bucks28c1,000$285 inLost-$284.54645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Raptors72c933$667 inWon+$265.7483039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79b0…ea3bbacked Bucks47c639.99$301 inLost-$300.7915154.3%82 W · 69 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bucks45c304.6$137 inLost-$137.074,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Bucks45c270$122 inLost-$121.545646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Raptors54c250$135 inWon+$11510348.5%50 W · 53 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Raptors54c185.19$100 inWon+$85.191,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Bucks44c175.72$78 inLost-$77.873,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Raptors56c175$98 inWon+$771,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Raptors64c148.55$95 inWon+$53.553,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Bucks45c135$61 inLost-$60.7556547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa0…d504backed Bucks44c120$53 inLost-$52.88350.6%42 W · 41 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Raptors55c91.05$50 inWon+$40.921,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86d9…b214backed Raptors56c80$45 inWon+$35.221854.6%119 W · 99 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Raptors62c77.67$48 inWon+$29.868,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x635b…195dbacked Bucks49c63$31 inLost-$30.8738252.4%200 W · 182 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Raptors56c60$34 inWon+$26.41,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Raptors56c60$34 inWon+$26.42,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Bucks50c59$29 inLost-$29.351,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Bucks50c50.13$25 inLost-$25.0729352.6%154 W · 139 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Raptors53c50$27 inWon+$23.53,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfffb…5f95backed Raptors54c37.04$20 inWon+$17.0424150.2%121 W · 120 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c4c…b7b8backed Raptors53c28.3$15 inWon+$13.315054%81 W · 69 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf73e…43f1backed Raptors52c28.12$15 inWon+$13.616052.5%84 W · 76 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eb7…d529backed Raptors53c27.78$15 inWon+$13.0529351.9%152 W · 141 L+1.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Bucks45c26.1$12 inLost-$11.741,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Bucks52c21.98$11 inLost-$11.471,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a55…fe8bbacked Raptors54c20.76$11 inWon+$9.5516552.1%86 W · 79 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Raptors53c19.99$11 inWon+$9.3945251.1%231 W · 221 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.