NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Bucks: O/U 221.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56c45718d6e9e13309acd38b593bf4bd3ebfd6f186645562e94708b1ce2f1342
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2795…fd6bbacked Under | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 49c | 2,857$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.93 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 52c | 1,834$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.11 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Under | 55c | 1,734$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.39 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 49c | 1,100$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.02 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Over | 51c | 990$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.9 | 348 | 55.2%192 W · 156 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 826.57$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.29 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 765.56$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.69 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 52c | 752$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.96 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 48c | 687.75$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.08 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 45c | 582.42$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.03 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 54c | 472.94$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.22 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 48c | 442.55$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.41 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 387.92$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.7 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over | 65c | 280$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 42c | 225.94$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.33 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 52c | 166.19$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.77 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Over | 45c | 152.71$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 293 | 52.6%154 W · 139 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 148.34$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.84 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 49c | 113.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 111.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 42c | 109.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 49c | 98.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Over | 51c | 82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 81.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 56c | 80.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c894backed Over | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 52c | 59.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 44c | 53.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 42c | 47.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59d0…a871backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Under | 56c | 40.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 156 | 62.8%98 W · 58 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Over | 45c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 49c | 35.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 56c | 30.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…d8f4backed Under | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…2e45backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Over | 49c | 22.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Over | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 67c | 20.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Bucks: O/U 221.5this page
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Brandon Ingram: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Raptors vs. BucksRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Bucks: O/U 212.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Bucks: O/U 218.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Bucks: O/U 219.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Bucks: O/U 220.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5Under won
- Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.