NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf41d94c28e48bd78e577d8d000ba7e0f035c1d228ed7c5d15f3ec182ad3da5d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Under | 56c | 28,981$16,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,751.78 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 56c | 14,345$7,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,362.17 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x433a…3bd8backed Under | 58c | 10,006$5,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,197.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a95…000bbacked Over | 42c | 10,000$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,200 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 7,918$3,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,588.49 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked Over | 44c | 6,316$2,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,778.93 | 247 | 44.1%109 W · 138 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 43c | 5,908$2,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,553.5 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Over | 44c | 5,520$2,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,428.8 | 316 | 44.6%141 W · 175 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Over | 44c | 5,386$2,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,369.66 | 378 | 42.9%162 W · 216 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Over | 44c | 4,511$1,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,985 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 1c | 2,466$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…6448backed Over | 50c | 2,065$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…ad46backed Under | 50c | 2,065$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Over | 43c | 1,780$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.63 | 249 | 42.2%105 W · 144 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 42c | 1,698$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.26 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 46c | 1,549$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…0127backed Over | 42c | 1,180$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.6 | 221 | 43%95 W · 126 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…1769backed Over | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.9 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 44c | 1,050$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 44c | 795$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.8 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…8793backed Over | 48c | 725.85$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.41 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Over | 44c | 700.23$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.1 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 655.07$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.62 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 44c | 618.18$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…19a0backed Over | 49c | 511.21$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 260 | 44.6%116 W · 144 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 44c | 445.15$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.57 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bde…237abacked Over | 44c | 345$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.8 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 57c | 332.57$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.41 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 315.91$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.42 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 59c | 303$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.23 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 41c | 296$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.36 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 47c | 276.63$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.38 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 256.28$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.75 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2641…062fbacked Over | 40c | 249.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d3…9af1backed Under | 59c | 247.01$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.58 | 126 | 42.1%53 W · 73 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 60c | 208.33$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 395 | 52.2%206 W · 189 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 43c | 202.29$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.98 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Over | 40c | 160$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 244 | 28.7%70 W · 174 L | -22.4wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 41c | 148$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Over | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 434 | 47.5%206 W · 228 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…8158backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -6.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Over | 41c | 102$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Over | 45c | 87.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 53c | 74.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…5ebbbacked Over | 41c | 74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c894backed Over | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2d…ee4cbacked Over | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 53.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Over | 49c | 50.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 293 | 52.6%154 W · 139 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Over | 50c | 50.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…2398backed Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 48c | 45.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…38b2backed Over | 47c | 40.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 40c | 39.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…3acebacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 59c | 32.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Over | 42c | 30.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…0921backed Under | 53c | 26.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf804…8758backed Over | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49cb…dd4dbacked Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Under | 50c | 23.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Under | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 51c | 19.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a70…8847backed Under | 59c | 19.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5this page
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Brandon Ingram: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Raptors vs. BucksRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Bucks: O/U 212.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Bucks: O/U 218.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Bucks: O/U 219.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Bucks: O/U 220.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Bucks: O/U 221.5Under won
- Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.