NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Bucks: O/U 219.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89fe0c8c1836be8719fff160bc116a409c973a14937ae81fdfe901567b14dbd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 50c | 20,000$9,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,917.57 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 52c | 13,626$7,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,540.71 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Over | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 357 | 44.3%158 W · 199 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 51c | 5,355$2,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,624.02 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 5,286$2,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,619.65 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Under | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777d…5143backed Over | 49c | 3,900$1,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,911.16 | 197 | 54.3%107 W · 90 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Under | 51c | 2,588$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,268.23 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 49c | 2,467$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208.93 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 51c | 1,078$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.43 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 50c | 1,000$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.33 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 48c | 766$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.68 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 49c | 588.16$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.2 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d9…b214backed Over | 50c | 396.7$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.35 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 46c | 220.56$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.46 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 51c | 209.44$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.26 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b0…ea3bbacked Under | 52c | 153.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.48 | 151 | 54.3%82 W · 69 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Over | 48c | 134$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 49c | 125$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb1…c109backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 49c | 100.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 293 | 52.6%154 W · 139 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Under | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 255 | 59.2%151 W · 104 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c61…4fa6backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 83.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 165 | 55.2%91 W · 74 L | -12.1wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1a…7ddebacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 227 | 56.8%129 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 50c | 50.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 51c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 49c | 47.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcf…47ddbacked Over | 51c | 45.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b8…3c28backed Over | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfffb…5f95backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 241 | 50.2%121 W · 120 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Over | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…4793backed Over | 67c | 37.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Under | 52c | 32.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 355 | 51.3%182 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 33c | 30.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…64acbacked Over | 50c | 24.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 51cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…e4c9backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 215 | 53.5%115 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a67…52edbacked Over | 52c | 19.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Bucks: O/U 219.5this page
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Brandon Ingram: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Raptors vs. BucksRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Bucks: O/U 212.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Bucks: O/U 218.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Bucks: O/U 220.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Bucks: O/U 221.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5Under won
- Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.