NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Bucks: O/U 220.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0729c11b037cbbb6af36c6ac222dd56df095bfe8e108ed291be722f0fde22e17

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Feb 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $31,966
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $32,657

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,966 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa710…23c4backed Under	52c	20,158$10,482 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,675.76	326	53.1%173 W · 153 L	+19.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	48c	9,776$4,665 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,664.93	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under	53c	3,000$1,590 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,410	691	49.1%339 W · 352 L	-8.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Over	47c	1,474$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	348	54%188 W · 160 L	+15.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over	46c	1,470$676 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$676.2	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Under	54c	1,470$794 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$676.2	185	36.8%68 W · 117 L	-11.8wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Over	48c	839.58$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$403	293	47.4%139 W · 154 L	-5.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Over	48c	828.77$398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$397.81	426	48.1%205 W · 221 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Under	53c	754$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$354.38	172	33.7%58 W · 114 L	-9.7wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Under	53c	749.99$397 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$352.5	1,085	63.6%690 W · 395 L	+86.7wins	+0.08per pick	56cpaid	+13%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Under	53c	566.04$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$266.04	649	44.7%290 W · 359 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Over	48c	496$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.08	547	47.5%260 W · 287 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over	47c	483.6$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.29	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4e1abacked Over	47c	395.17$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.73	151	47%71 W · 80 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	54c	356.43$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.96	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbec4…637fbacked Under	49c	242.2$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.38	531	49.3%262 W · 269 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed Over	48c	208.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	187	49.2%92 W · 95 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over	47c	193.92$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.6	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	47c	191.01$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.78	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Over	48c	159.05$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.35	1,197	48.9%585 W · 612 L	-14.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c39…20eebacked Over	46c	124.69$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.36	358	43.6%156 W · 202 L	-8.0wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under	52c	123.12$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.1	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over	47c	106.38$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82f6…1848backed Over	48c	104.17$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	121	52.1%63 W · 58 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Over	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	955	48.5%463 W · 492 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae9a…7ceabacked Under	54c	92.68$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.69	78	47.4%37 W · 41 L	-4.3wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2d8…480bbacked Under	54c	92.59$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.59	14	78.6%11 W · 3 L	+2.7wins	+0.19per pick	60cpaid	+39.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	47c	89.94$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.51	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	54c	81.43$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.25	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Under	55c	63.64$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.64	456	51.1%233 W · 223 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over	51c	61.18$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.2	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Under	53c	49$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.03	1,018	51.6%525 W · 493 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e2…3c77backed Over	48c	45$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	59	44.1%26 W · 33 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2,468	50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L	+38.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x536d…4430backed Over	47c	40$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.8	45	51.1%23 W · 22 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfffb…5f95backed Under	55c	36.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	241	50.2%121 W · 120 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05c9…1ebbbacked Under	54c	27.78$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.78	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+2.4wins	+0.17per pick	47cpaid	+24.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed Over	47c	24$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.28	193	52.8%102 W · 91 L	+11.7wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+13%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Raptors vs. Bucks: O/U 220.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event