TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Utah vs. Hurricanes

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hurricanesof Utah, Hurricanes
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$521,567
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$542,255

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $521,567 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 434 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Utah39c150,000$58,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,499.9510840.7%44 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Utah71c49,648$35,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,249.781,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Hurricanes60c42,189$25,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,934.142,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Utah39c41,315$16,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,112.691,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hurricanes39c22,636$8,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,748.61,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Hurricanes61c21,825$13,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,511.9426849.6%133 W · 135 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Hurricanes60c21,524$12,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,609.7747951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba81…dc35backed Hurricanes29c17,500$5,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,434.55364.2%34 W · 19 L+6.4wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+34.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x17e0…80aebacked Hurricanes28c15,412$4,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,023.6732744%144 W · 183 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Hurricanes61c14,868$9,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,798.5261953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Hurricanes61c13,107$7,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,111.71,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Hurricanes61c11,800$7,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,6028453.6%45 W · 39 L-6.2wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Utah0c11,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Hurricanes61c10,543$6,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,111.6162249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Utah39c10,122$3,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,956.3661748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Utah38c9,860$3,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,746.7767051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Hurricanes61c9,633$5,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,783.211,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Utah40c8,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20021036.2%76 W · 134 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf69…9076backed Utah40c7,515$2,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,991.021442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Utah38c6,500$2,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4701,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Hurricanes61c6,212$3,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,422.6879350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Hurricanes61c5,578$3,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,175.4228251.8%146 W · 136 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Utah38c5,526$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,099.9333243.7%145 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hurricanes61c5,478$3,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,155.522,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2953…5344backed Hurricanes61c5,115$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,994.852965.5%19 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Hurricanes59c5,000$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,05031654.7%173 W · 143 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Hurricanes27c5,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6508134.6%28 W · 53 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Utah40c4,987$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,994.7912047.5%57 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Hurricanes61c4,098$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,598.3650049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35ac…92a7backed Hurricanes61c4,000$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,56027548.7%134 W · 141 L+0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Hurricanes61c4,000$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5601,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Hurricanes60c3,980$2,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,591.965242.3%22 W · 30 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Utah40c3,875$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,55028152%146 W · 135 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Utah39c3,684$1,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,419.351,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Hurricanes61c3,526$2,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,390.4345955.1%253 W · 206 L+1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Hurricanes60c3,490$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,410.0813954%75 W · 64 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xedf0…1e2abacked Utah39c3,400$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32614940.9%61 W · 88 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Hurricanes57c3,317$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,436.5557157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hurricanes42c3,306$1,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,905.071,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d98…4d2dbacked Hurricanes62c3,218$1,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,222.742871.4%20 W · 8 L+4.8wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+37.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb123…0a15backed Hurricanes61c3,000$1,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1706443.8%28 W · 36 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Hurricanes7c2,917$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,716.0589636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x778d…cbe2backed Hurricanes60c2,700$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.043458.8%20 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+17.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b28…66f0backed Hurricanes62c2,581$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.6510850.9%55 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Hurricanes62c2,523$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.991,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x164f…deb3backed Utah40c2,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00025446.5%118 W · 136 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d3a…64b7backed Utah40c2,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012041.7%50 W · 70 L-10.9wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Hurricanes61c2,500$1,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97521048.1%101 W · 109 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Utah39c2,500$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97584953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Hurricanes60c2,500$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00020552.2%107 W · 98 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Hurricanes61c2,400$1,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93660249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4b7…3c8bbacked Utah38c2,347$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.87347.9%35 W · 38 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Hurricanes5c2,224$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,102.960337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6e3…6dfebacked Hurricanes61c2,016$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.394856.3%27 W · 21 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Hurricanes45c2,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,10033345.6%152 W · 181 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Hurricanes61c2,000$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78063249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8758…01e0backed Utah38c1,991$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.582524%6 W · 19 L-5.7wins-0.23per pick47cpaid-38.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Hurricanes23c1,974$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,518.793,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Hurricanes34c1,930$649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,281.2511533.9%39 W · 76 L-9.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x30ce…fdcebacked Hurricanes16c1,911$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,596.6115057.3%86 W · 64 L+14.8wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+44.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x293f…3e52backed Utah40c1,875$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7505736.8%21 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x765c…0779backed Hurricanes61c1,800$1,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70240049.3%197 W · 203 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Hurricanes61c1,800$1,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70243548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f4…5bc0backed Utah40c1,710$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6847138%27 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Hurricanes60c1,700$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68044551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x019e…af1dbacked Hurricanes60c1,688$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.25154.9%28 W · 23 L-0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Utah44c1,679$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.711,10752%576 W · 531 L+63.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4fbe…b84fbacked Hurricanes62c1,646$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.3618258.2%106 W · 76 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf62b…844abacked Hurricanes62c1,613$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.914654.1%79 W · 67 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Hurricanes61c1,485$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.361,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Utah53c1,479$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.052,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcb2f…936abacked Hurricanes63c1,444$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.558664%55 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+30.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Hurricanes57c1,441$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.6742847.2%202 W · 226 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Hurricanes61c1,393$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.441,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Utah17c1,378$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.082,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked Hurricanes61c1,363$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.573141.9%13 W · 18 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x08a4…5c3fbacked Utah37c1,278$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.930551.5%157 W · 148 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Hurricanes25c1,275$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.157162%44 W · 27 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Utah40c1,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50038445.8%176 W · 208 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6fc…3e7fbacked Hurricanes65c1,235$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.011172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Hurricanes50c1,190$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.641,35452.6%712 W · 642 L+46.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Hurricanes61c1,100$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42945749.2%225 W · 232 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfff3…e2c5backed Hurricanes29c1,034$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.485149%25 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8927…f5c6backed Utah39c1,025$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.7512436.3%45 W · 79 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf569…0cecbacked Utah2c1,016$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-47.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b60…9c7ebacked Hurricanes60c1,011$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.43641.7%15 W · 21 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a89…2f26backed Hurricanes61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39070547.7%336 W · 369 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Utah13c901.18$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.5722728.2%64 W · 163 L-17.6wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-37.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa522…9bdcbacked Utah41c890$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.9825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-45.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7aeb…0c44backed Hurricanes61c880$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.2887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick53cpaid+62.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Hurricanes41c870$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.5234538.6%133 W · 212 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Hurricanes61c861$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.7983149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Hurricanes28c821.42$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.551,84657.2%1,055 W · 791 L+85.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Hurricanes60c808.78$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.532650%163 W · 163 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Hurricanes61c803.63$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.5393953.6%503 W · 436 L+29.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Hurricanes62c800$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30425552.5%134 W · 121 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Hurricanes61c800$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31238046.6%177 W · 203 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0944…6771backed Utah39c799.98$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.9910145.5%46 W · 55 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6710…ab34backed Hurricanes61c799.95$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.985100%5 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+92.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Utah27c797.16$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.6599638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.