Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Köln vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe161b7380780d22a1cb350e83f6e2a816a839d763175de2a1c14c53c492a6dd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked No | 75c | 18,650$13,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,662.47 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed07…886abacked No | 72c | 10,000$7,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 25c | 5,000$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.99 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 26c | 3,244$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.51 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa558…1b44backed Yes | 27c | 2,964$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…de5abacked Yes | 25c | 2,888$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 25c | 2,519$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.64 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…f52fbacked Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 14c | 1,623$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.18 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…68ecbacked Yes | 29c | 1,379$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 28c | 1,231$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.18 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Yes | 26c | 1,227$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 1c | 1,044$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Yes | 25c | 961$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.25 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 74c | 862.37$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.22 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Yes | 27c | 781.53$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.77 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Yes | 26c | 707.69$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 20c | 607.66$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.61 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 20c | 594.32$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 79c | 560.48$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.05 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed No | 74c | 384.56$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.99 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 75c | 372.5$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.98 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 71c | 365.58$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.02 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…912cbacked Yes | 25c | 336$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 21c | 190.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Yes | 27c | 185$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 73c | 178.81$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…4e76backed Yes | 18c | 169.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 79c | 152.59$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eac…525ebacked Yes | 26c | 135$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed No | 74c | 118.94$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec2…00f6backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 79c | 109.74$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49fa…f904backed Yes | 28c | 103.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…9e23backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…5ba4backed Yes | 27c | 94.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3675…e4cdbacked No | 76c | 83.8$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked No | 74c | 80.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e94…f7bfbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 27c | 64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcb…4381backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…b752backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1384…12acbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…42e7backed No | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 74c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd141…5e5fbacked Yes | 26c | 48.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…2f4abacked No | 70c | 40.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -32%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30e1…0badbacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 74c | 19.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 72c | 18.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…703cbacked No | 76c | 16.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Köln vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-01-30?Yes won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-01-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.