TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-01-30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$560,658
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$597,939

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $560,658 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 305 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x43a4…7170backed Yes49c204,614$100,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104,569.851553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked No5c75,714$3,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,897.3427138.4%104 W · 167 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No46c38,103$17,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,359.9875142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No52c31,008$16,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,155.543,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked No51c29,609$15,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,100.754854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No50c24,444$12,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,270.261,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No51c19,578$10,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,061.2769851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe667…898fbacked No0c17,969$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9850%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked No51c12,452$6,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,350.461250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed No52c10,712$5,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,570.214938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked No51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,100.147062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No53c8,755$4,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,670.6423046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No53c7,865$4,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,138.6778248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8790…010bbacked No31c7,614$2,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,374.927757.1%44 W · 33 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+38.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes46c6,013$2,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,238.311,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc2b…4564backed No53c6,000$3,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,209.95560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No32c5,164$1,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,648.532,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed Yes49c5,100$2,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,583.979831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x127f…8a29backed No6c5,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003520%7 W · 28 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed No52c4,525$2,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3534658.7%27 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Yes79c4,244$3,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.2553645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yes48c4,166$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,166.3238748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No55c3,961$2,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,188.076144.3%27 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed No52c3,729$1,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,939.082222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Yes48c3,415$1,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,777.8410361.2%63 W · 40 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed No51c3,346$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,710.318545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked No51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5307057.1%40 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed No54c3,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,62011644.8%52 W · 64 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed No51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5306459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8052…cd55backed No51c2,800$1,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,428425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x585c…f0a7backed No53c2,327$1,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,244.685923.7%14 W · 45 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick34cpaid+8.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed No53c2,216$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,164.329951.5%51 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d0c…bcebbacked No51c2,171$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.145440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3ea…0637backed No51c2,100$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Yes48c2,083$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.333246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc635…2d43backed No52c2,018$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Yes42c2,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,16015847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x12c6…0691backed Yes48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0402356.5%13 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+34.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc23f…3239backed Yes48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed No52c1,923$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00015540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed No52c1,561$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.7835856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bc6…ac13backed Yes72c1,389$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.17450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-33.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Yes48c1,388$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No23c1,371$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.861,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Yes48c1,252$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.083834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes48c1,173$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.967639.5%30 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Yes46c1,150$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62110154.5%55 W · 46 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Yes47c1,134$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.115829.1%46 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2727…eef4backed Yes44c1,090$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.691216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-37.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb77e…e668backed Yes49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.411478.6%11 W · 3 L+4.6wins+0.33per pick45cpaid+84.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed No56c1,010$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.39549.5%47 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Yes47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5304835.4%17 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfece…940bbacked Yes49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+22.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51024050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0315…5eb3backed Yes45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c38…de5abacked Yes42c1,000$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5806053.3%32 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No51c986.56$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.1555058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd382…8885backed Yes73c983.36$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.713100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Yes46c908.12$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.3827726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61bb…5854backed Yes74c900$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2381861.1%11 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Yes47c880$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.430054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes47c856$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.7334342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed No26c848.22$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.54540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7be1…200ebacked Yes74c810.81$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.813458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc0e…84d1backed No54c800$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick42cpaid-78.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed No52c800$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4163447.1%16 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked No51c800$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4088764.4%56 W · 31 L+10.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xed91…8ce8backed No4c765.67$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.99520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-67.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked No51c757.5$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.332441.7%10 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd544…4d5ebacked No20c700$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes73c657$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.3916060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed No51c622.7$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.5818746%86 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed No56c600$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33615453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed No51c580.68$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.3225850.4%130 W · 128 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7643…fb95backed Yes44c500$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2801662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked No53c500$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2655052%26 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed No51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25520545.9%94 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed No53c484.62$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2583259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed No52c478.85$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24917652.3%92 W · 84 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed No51c450$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.522854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No51c450$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.515454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed No51c450$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.58864.8%57 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1cbb…7fdabacked Yes73c450$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50f8…8908backed No28c430$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked No56c400$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22410855.6%60 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No51c400$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20424258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed No51c400$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20412162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd3b1…19bbbacked No52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad6b…1fdebacked No6c375.36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.01520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked No52c366.9$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.793748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed No51c360$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.614355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x96bd…b290backed No56c354.19$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.7130%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed No51c350$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.513957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x991e…3190backed No59c338.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Yes47c335.26$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.265851.7%30 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdecf…caf2backed Yes44c325$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1824639.1%18 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-33%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x86b1…cb95backed No53c304.91$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked Yes49c300.04$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.5219446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked No51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1538461.9%52 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc400…7c6bbacked Yes73c300$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.