TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$93,154
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$98,771

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,154 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb784…61d0backed No73c31,900$23,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,2872373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+39.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes30c21,043$6,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,742.053,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yes27c11,324$3,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,266.3938748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No71c4,949$3,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,537.1475142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d0c…bcebbacked Yes28c4,200$1,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0245440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes29c4,199$1,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,981.2933945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd66f…a19bbacked No52c3,535$1,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,820.81850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe558…20f7backed No71c3,257$2,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,312.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes27c3,225$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,341.6169851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd43…cd41backed No69c3,224$2,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,224.892259.1%13 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick71cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4bba…cf14backed No73c1,876$1,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,369.82955.2%16 W · 13 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick71cpaid-22.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Yes27c1,500$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,09527726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed No10c1,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15012952.7%68 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes27c1,330$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.1656547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf673…68ecbacked Yes76c1,159$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked No72c1,086$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.927758.4%45 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-2.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Yes67c1,019$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.211,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac76…fe54backed Yes21c948.31$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+135.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3df…beefbacked No72c906$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6db…fcfcbacked Yes28c897$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.84366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+65.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No49c871.05$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.922,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x819f…70bcbacked Yes28c810$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.22536%9 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa83…4965backed Yes27c777.78$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.781154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Yes28c750$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5406129.5%18 W · 43 L-7.1wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Yes28c714.29$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.292937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0391…ef9bbacked Yes28c535.71$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.71862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick27cpaid+150.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked No71c500$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35548146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed No71c500$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35563645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No71c487.32$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.11,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed No37c448.53$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.7524541.6%102 W · 143 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Yes27c448$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.046558.5%38 W · 27 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+73.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc610…fd2dbacked Yes47c425.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.531050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes28c418$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.9617251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed No27c409.23$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.366936.2%25 W · 44 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3483…2c80backed No72c404$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.8820%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x74ba…f2c5backed Yes28c395$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No7c389$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.728241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Yes25c378.4$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.6576234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes28c357.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.1419254.7%105 W · 87 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x62c6…55acbacked Yes24c311.58$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.691040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes27c305$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.6534342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b90…30b6backed Yes44c303.57$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.575250%26 W · 26 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked No72c300$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21619446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbb…92efbacked Yes29c296.94$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.85450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+94.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No72c286.54$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.1662452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Yes50c236$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1185444.4%24 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked No17c218.81$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9414315.4%22 W · 121 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Yes30c212.12$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.4314642.5%62 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes28c198.93$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.239252.2%48 W · 44 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a50…ea80backed Yes28c187.25$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.825038%19 W · 31 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Yes27c185.19$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.198950.6%45 W · 44 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b29…1f46backed Yes28c178.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.572646.2%12 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+38.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6a6…7971backed Yes29c172.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.441741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Yes34c169.48$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.0644655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6479…5e64backed Yes62c164.52$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.523762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01b5…8ccfbacked Yes29c154.72$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.72425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed No22c152.29$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1110943.1%47 W · 62 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No49c151.66$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.841,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8cd…e951backed No73c136$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.281764.7%11 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick74cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5020…ed87backed Yes28c135.25$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd265…a7ecbacked No65c131.05$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.182245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed No32c123$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.456553.8%35 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes36c116.51$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.5514934.9%52 W · 97 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes63c103.77$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3311644%51 W · 65 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8549…41f8backed Yes29c100.34$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.344037.5%15 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1871…59e6backed Yes22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7810251%52 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed No72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1135856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfccd…02d6backed No71c99.98$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.994671.7%33 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick69cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed No72c99.63$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7421450%107 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2d9…f193backed Yes22c94.05$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.052540%10 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+58.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5d97…7d3bbacked Yes27c92.59$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.591241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick28cpaid+52.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a0c…9db8backed Yes27c90$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.41275%9 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+68.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xee09…1199backed No67c89.05$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602763%17 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e1b…4b36backed No34c88.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddd7…1596backed No72c85.7$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7125855.4%143 W · 115 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5245…37e3backed Yes47c79.02$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.88250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd306…4320backed Yes27c76.92$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.155232.7%17 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+67.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No58c73.27$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6323842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9973…cc32backed Yes28c71.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.43933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes28c71.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.433636.1%13 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…2037backed Yes28c71.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.41369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+48.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked No72c69.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5037344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x090b…2f01backed Yes29c69.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.31616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-42.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8405…2163backed Yes29c65.52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5218140.3%73 W · 108 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe838…ff86backed Yes29c62.87$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.642100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+174.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a1d…dac4backed Yes28c60.34$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5db…f982backed Yes29c58.62$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.623158.1%18 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ad9…3cb4backed Yes29c58.03$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.21650%8 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+69.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed No29c57.95$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5528822.6%65 W · 223 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22fe…65acbacked Yes29c57.39$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb9c…5a62backed Yes28c57.14$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.141330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No72c57.13$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1316045%72 W · 88 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No79c56.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.089742.3%41 W · 56 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Yes28c54.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8316343.6%71 W · 92 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84a4…21c4backed No73c54.79$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401145.5%5 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick64cpaid-30.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x22cc…8aeabacked No70c54.74$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5310051%51 W · 49 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80cf…0ec7backed No49c53.16$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2230%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9468…dc7dbacked Yes29c52$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.92633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a3e…d808backed No40c50.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-37.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed No72c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365076%38 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.