TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-02-20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$162,901
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$183,051

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,901 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 253 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Yes38c12,223$4,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,680.83,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Yes46c12,203$5,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,613.582941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed No54c11,574$6,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,324.074264.3%27 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked No53c10,324$5,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,852.135549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd303…b09bbacked No52c8,526$4,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,057.86475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+31.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f2f…be86backed No53c7,500$3,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,524.971145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes49c4,452$2,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,162.3875142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa3b…d6b7backed No53c4,000$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,879.921241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d0c…bcebbacked Yes47c3,753$1,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,764.095440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd66f…a19bbacked No63c3,551$2,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.16850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No57c3,524$2,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,509.161,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed Yes47c3,205$1,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,494.129831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No52c2,861$1,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,369.7369851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed No68c2,175$1,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.233268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+22.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf338…38e2backed Yes45c1,954$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No60c1,721$1,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.572,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Yes46c1,508$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.8635856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No53c1,400$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.3156547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Yes69c1,349$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.8614315.4%22 W · 121 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes47c1,331$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.9333945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe706…89bcbacked Yes42c1,279$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.7711843.2%51 W · 67 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30ce…fdcebacked No30c1,189$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.41968.4%13 W · 6 L+5.1wins+0.27per pick42cpaid+128.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Yes47c1,064$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007967.1%53 W · 26 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed Yes47c1,064$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50017652.3%92 W · 84 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Yes46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4609549.5%47 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3909…335fbacked Yes47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4702040%8 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed No54c940$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.43174.2%23 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+25.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Yes30c921.98$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.349951.5%51 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed Yes70c889.99$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.993339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+84.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes47c859$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.0134342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3ba…e793backed No44c744.89$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.594360.5%26 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes47c741$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.178630.2%26 W · 60 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb700…b06bbacked Yes46c723.91$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed No61c717.57$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.13145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a92…6941backed No67c704.4$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.625455.6%30 W · 24 L+9.6wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+50.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x8e2f…137cbacked Yes47c700$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked No26c682.35$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.944854.2%26 W · 22 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+29%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b49…69c1backed Yes47c670.21$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3151838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bc6…a7c8backed No54c670$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf75e…c325backed No54c670$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.2450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc4e6…0d1fbacked Yes47c640$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2921…f3f6backed Yes47c638.3$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.31per pick54cpaid-58.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes46c583.36$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.311,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85a1…a640backed Yes49c581.47$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2838959.6%53 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes47c531.91$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25038055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde6b…7178backed Yes46c529.64$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.2330%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x34f6…eab4backed Yes48c529.17$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2542040%8 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x819f…70bcbacked Yes46c525$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.712536%9 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9453…6952backed Yes55c519.15$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2889250%46 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02d4…d26cbacked No30c500$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35013129.8%39 W · 92 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked Yes47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2352751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9f8…e913backed No55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2251233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed No54c499.99$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.9963645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes45c483.2$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.4433340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96d9…18a0backed Yes46c475.38$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.743369.7%23 W · 10 L+5.7wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x12f9…74babacked No34c445$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.79476.6%72 W · 22 L+16.8wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+49.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked No65c390.59$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.7248658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No67c363$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.4128241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x060b…632bbacked No54c363$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53ec…2d79backed No54c361.55$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf35…a0dbbacked No54c357.12$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdd6…a8d6backed Yes47c348.12$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf3f…280ebacked Yes47c345.38$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a4d…4d92backed Yes47c343.53$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac7a…29c8backed No54c338.29$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.61250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed No30c333.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.338939.3%35 W · 54 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x377e…f111backed Yes47c325.17$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Yes37c320$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.631752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea3…b910backed Yes47c319.15$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Yes32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008844.3%39 W · 49 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+19.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Yes46c308.7$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1425851.7%30 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed No43c307.35$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.1944655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa5bb…7466backed No54c300$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x812d…8f72backed Yes47c300$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-71.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36fa…1125backed Yes21c277$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd265…a7ecbacked Yes57c265.64$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.422245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5db…f982backed Yes47c261.81$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.553158.1%18 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7250…f52fbacked Yes48c257$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.365425.9%14 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No53c242.85$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.6962452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda70…66b3backed No54c241.67$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.17475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+67.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6039…9496backed No54c240$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.4450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6a6…7971backed Yes48c233.33$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Yes43c228.65$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1253645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Yes10c222.59$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.246936.2%25 W · 44 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3dde…2c06backed Yes47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005236.5%19 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2dc…f9d3backed Yes47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-5.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3fb4…d481backed Yes46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923959%23 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+31.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde4b…3b7dbacked Yes47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5675…f99cbacked Yes47c199.74$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.711414.3%2 W · 12 L-4.3wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-72.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked Yes47c191.98$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4619446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed No33c182.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2420753.6%111 W · 96 L+22.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+24.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5865…696abacked No55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.82450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed Yes65c175.8$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.829646.9%45 W · 51 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01d7…5fd2backed No59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.491392.3%12 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.25per pick67cpaid+43.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes46c166$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.219846.9%46 W · 52 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes41c165.38$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0438646.9%181 W · 205 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Yes30c156.31$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6676234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e52…2320backed No34c155$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.35364.2%34 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11f0…890dbacked Yes46c150$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699062.2%56 W · 34 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x12bd…8f48backed Yes46c150$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.