TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hornetsof Cavaliers, Hornets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$993,066
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,041,788

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $993,066 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 257 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Cavaliers51c362,946$185,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185,000.5387451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Hornets50c194,294$97,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97,146.9787144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Hornets49c163,132$79,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83,382.892,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Hornets49c139,730$68,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,436.951,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Hornets49c100,000$49,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,0002,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8bd…b7aabacked Cavaliers50c94,992$47,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,4961127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.27per pick54cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Cavaliers52c49,117$25,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,480.1716547.3%78 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+56.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc311…44fcbacked Hornets52c48,086$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,085.653135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Hornets50c46,000$23,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,9601,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Cavaliers51c38,368$19,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,523.4451354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Cavaliers50c31,832$15,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,915.5444352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Cavaliers50c25,173$12,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,583.094,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Cavaliers50c24,688$12,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,34437747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers49c23,702$11,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,588.619,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Cavaliers50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00026648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Cavaliers52c19,231$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00020758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4408…1b6abacked Cavaliers43c17,154$7,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,372.37653.9%41 W · 35 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Hornets48c14,723$7,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,655.9559347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Hornets50c13,074$6,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,598.2435450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Cavaliers50c12,548$6,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,289.362,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Cavaliers50c9,456$4,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,746.570246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Cavaliers50c8,712$4,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,35648546.4%225 W · 260 L-14.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Cavaliers50c8,560$4,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,28034854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Hornets50c8,260$4,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,13065750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Cavaliers50c7,986$3,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,99338946%179 W · 210 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Hornets49c7,000$3,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,57024252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Hornets50c6,500$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,25058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Hornets46c6,447$2,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,481.3517249.4%85 W · 87 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Hornets50c6,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0001,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Hornets57c5,871$3,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,532.653,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92d8…0924backed Cavaliers51c5,643$2,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,878.0524045.4%109 W · 131 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Cavaliers50c5,631$2,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,815.4942648.1%205 W · 221 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Cavaliers50c5,606$2,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,802.830446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Hornets47c5,257$2,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,786.1129055.5%161 W · 129 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Hornets50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50018547%87 W · 98 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Hornets49c5,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5501,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedf9…5b10backed Cavaliers50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5005846.6%27 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Cavaliers52c4,500$2,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,32569149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Hornets50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Hornets51c3,989$2,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,955.0845850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7c2…722ebacked Cavaliers50c3,908$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9601258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Hornets49c3,573$1,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,839.726,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98da…a9ebbacked Cavaliers50c3,186$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6007041.4%29 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Cavaliers50c2,880$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44041649.8%207 W · 209 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Hornets50c2,500$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,25043348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed Cavaliers50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00015141.1%62 W · 89 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Hornets50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fb4…5c6cbacked Hornets51c1,965$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.926640.2%107 W · 159 L+1.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Hornets46c1,814$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.434,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Hornets49c1,593$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.413,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Cavaliers50c1,580$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79043453.2%231 W · 203 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Cavaliers50c1,560$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7809741.2%40 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Hornets48c1,494$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.021,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Hornets57c1,485$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.523,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Cavaliers51c1,434$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.917953.1%95 W · 84 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cavaliers48c1,415$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.072,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x05e1…85a2backed Cavaliers51c1,380$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69832347.1%152 W · 171 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d1e…effebacked Cavaliers53c1,320$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6938252.4%43 W · 39 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcba…2398backed Hornets50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6007851.3%40 W · 38 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Hornets55c1,150$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.911,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Hornets49c1,149$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.7551844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Hornets49c1,056$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.214,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Cavaliers50c1,042$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52152951.2%271 W · 258 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Hornets51c1,020$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.6167252.7%354 W · 318 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Hornets50c1,008$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.1976746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Cavaliers50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50065339.5%258 W · 395 L-24.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc857…9e70backed Hornets50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5001369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.25per pick44cpaid+61.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Hornets47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53040947.7%195 W · 214 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed Hornets50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50029149.5%144 W · 147 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Hornets58c962.03$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.151,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hornets48c939.83$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.14,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7479…d35fbacked Hornets54c899.96$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.983863.2%24 W · 14 L+5.6wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+32.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf673…68ecbacked Hornets52c899.42$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.724645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Cavaliers34c868.41$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.731,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2579…9d48backed Cavaliers54c855.56$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46219359.6%115 W · 78 L+14.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb8e5…1f2fbacked Cavaliers51c834.86$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.781136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x55fb…fe7bbacked Hornets50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40010342.7%44 W · 59 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Hornets50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40045647.1%215 W · 241 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d10…e270backed Cavaliers49c766.08$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.385139.2%20 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Hornets47c699.99$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37184150.3%423 W · 418 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Hornets50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30023644.1%104 W · 132 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c2f…9765backed Cavaliers51c594.79$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.346238.7%24 W · 38 L-7.6wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-26.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Hornets51c588.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.2440041.5%166 W · 234 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Cavaliers48c583$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.842,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9916…bcb2backed Cavaliers49c570$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.318743.3%81 W · 106 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Cavaliers49c527.4$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.983,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfaa…3858backed Cavaliers50c510$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2553253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Cavaliers50c508$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25427746.6%129 W · 148 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bcc…4324backed Hornets50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25052844.7%236 W · 292 L+1.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Hornets46c500$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27017250%86 W · 86 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Hornets51c499.99$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24549345.2%223 W · 270 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Hornets50c499.98$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.6850653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Hornets51c467.32$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.861,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06c2…184fbacked Cavaliers49c455$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.958541.2%35 W · 50 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Cavaliers50c455$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.51,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c8…090cbacked Cavaliers48c447.2$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21510546.7%49 W · 56 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x68a9…e73abacked Hornets50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20021045.2%95 W · 115 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x86d9…b214backed Hornets51c392.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.1521854.6%119 W · 99 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Hornets49c383$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.311,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Cavaliers53c380$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.462347.5%296 W · 327 L-17.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.