TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x05e1…85a2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
675
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: MLB, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 56 out of 100; worst Other European Leagues at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT32347.1%152 W · 171 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 323 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,678Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+1,769.8%+$29,697.54
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$6,030Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,029.78
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$2,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,500
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$800
Spread: Spurs (-10.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$725Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+154.1%+$1,117.06
Spread: Spurs (-8.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$240
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$4,070Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+115.1%+$4,685.25
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$2,580Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,580
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,000
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$4,001Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,000.5
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$2,450Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,450
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$4,907Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$6,245.49
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$630Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$630
Knicks vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$2,446Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,446.03
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,111Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$2,360.88
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$811.11
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$600
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.32
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,220Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,220
Spread: Spurs (-10.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,111Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+100%+$1,111
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$4,110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,110
Thunder vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,780Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,780
Showing 25 of 323 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT11025.5%28 W · 82 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 110 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$4,885Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,885.17
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+541.4%+$8,121.12
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$27,317Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$27,316.93
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$900Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$900
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$2,238Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,238.35
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$3,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,000
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$283Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$282.85
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,902Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,901.56
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,100
France vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$424Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$424.39
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$425Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$425
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,000
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$1,900Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,900
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$700
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Paraguay vs. France: Team to Advancebacked Paraguay · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$388Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$388.48
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$175
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Showing 25 of 110 picks, newest first.
MLBlast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT7160.6%43 W · 28 L+5.4wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
MLB — the 71 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Soxbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$553.85
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$2,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,400
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubsbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigersbacked Detroit Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$587.3
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$2,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,500
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Oriolesbacked Philadelphia Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$217.24
San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangersbacked Texas Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,800
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubsbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,998Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,998
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,500
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardiansbacked Cleveland Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$306.45
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubsbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astrosbacked Texas Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,500
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Bravesbacked Washington Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$600
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astrosbacked Texas Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$599.93
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Oriolesbacked Philadelphia Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+73.9%+$739.26
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubsbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$325
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Bravesbacked Washington Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Marinersbacked Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,600Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$1,022.95
Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Raysbacked Tampa Bay Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$319.67
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Marinersbacked Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$319.67
Showing 25 of 71 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT5154.9%28 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 51 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$141
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+251.2%+$502.38
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Connecticut Huskies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$191.24
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$600
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$172.4
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Michigan Wolverines · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$3,478Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$1,098.21
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcatsbacked Arizona Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$2,482Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$1,063.55
Will Alabama win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5)backed St. John's Red Storm · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$297Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$285.71
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked Duke Blue Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$77.23
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcatsbacked Arizona Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,490Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+27.7%+$412.22
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougarsbacked Illinois Fighting Illini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$991Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$1,261.75
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakersbacked Purdue Boilermakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$298Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$94.13
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tidebacked Texas Tech Red Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.13
Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-1.5)backed Texas Tech Red Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$297.39
Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-6.5)backed Texas Longhorns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$91.5
Spread: Utah State Aggies (-9.5)backed Boise State Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Pepperdine Waves vs. Portland Pilotsbacked Portland Pilots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Missouri Tigersbacked Vanderbilt Commodores · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Auburn Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogsbacked Auburn Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$100
BYU Cougars vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 165.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+72.4%+$72.41
Utah Utes vs. West Virginia Mountaineers: O/U 131.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Murray State Racers vs. Illinois State Redbirdsbacked Illinois State Redbirds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+72.4%+$72.41
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: O/U 147.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+78.6%+$78.57
Showing 25 of 51 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT3655.6%20 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,440Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,440
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$2,982Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+84.8%+$2,527.68
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knightsbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$1,107.69
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knightsbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$750Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$750
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$2,700Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$1,800
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.44
Ducks vs. Oilersbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$192.44
Kraken vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$859Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$442.31
Oilers vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$818Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$725.4
Oilers vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+77%+$770.05
Lightning vs. Senators: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+100%+$500
Lightning vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$735Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$765
Hurricanes vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$586.96
Flyers vs. Islandersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,995Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,994.98
Red Wings vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$192.16
Hurricanes vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Islanders vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$612.9
Maple Leafs vs. Ducksbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$978.95
Spread: Ducks (-1.5)backed Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$986Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+67.1%+$661.62
Wild vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$177.45
Sharks vs. Predatorsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$122.54
Oilers vs. Bluesbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Blue Jackets vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 10, 2026, EDT1855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$347.46
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+54%+$269.91
FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+53.8%+$161.54
Newcastle United FC vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-02-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+61.3%+$61.29
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+96.1%+$96.08
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-02-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+88.7%+$177.36
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+40.8%+$40.85
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$800
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$100
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Atalanta BC: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+143.9%+$143.9
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+138.1%+$69.05
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$212Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+38.9%+$82.6
All 18 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$88.68
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+69.5%+$69.49
Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+81.8%+$163.64
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,350Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+35.1%+$474.39
Crystal Palace FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+38.9%+$194.44
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+108.3%+$216.67
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)backed Arsenal FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-02-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 11 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-02-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$300
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+42.9%+$428.57
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+66.7%+$133.33
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-02-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+33.3%+$100
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+96.1%+$384.31
Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+132.6%+$132.56
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$40
All 9 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+25.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Feb 19, 2026, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-39%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverevbacked Alexander Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$265.82
Open Sud de France: Tallon Griekspoor vs Titouan Droguetbacked Droguet · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+40.8%+$122.54
All 2 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SC Internacional win on 2026-02-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+72.4%+$72.41
CA Rosario Central vs. CA Barracas Central: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$300
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-02-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$516Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$516.08
All 2 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Miami vs. Indianabacked Indiana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+33.3%+$150
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Men's Quarterfinals - USA vs. Swedenbacked USA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+26.9%+$268.82
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.