TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,354,609
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,246,169

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,354,609 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,380 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x533c…2658backed No70c223,451$157,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157,041.311216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-67%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xacae…6798backed Yes18c85,151$15,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,831.3210749.5%53 W · 54 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4608…d049backed Yes19c58,160$11,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,109.611030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes45c47,119$21,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,971.5433438.9%130 W · 204 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes22c47,100$10,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,913.886127.9%17 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1333…e463backed Yes73c44,592$32,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,039.91666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd604…cb5fbacked No70c38,438$27,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,020.622917.2%5 W · 24 L-5.5wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-69.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes33c37,398$12,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,979.621,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed No5c37,346$1,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,769.3217742.9%76 W · 101 L+0.8wins0.00per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca6…73e3backed No1c36,389$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.898946.1%41 W · 48 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfaf…7affbacked Yes20c35,033$7,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,917.452733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe990…dcfcbacked Yes73c33,560$24,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,061.292100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick66cpaid+54.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9fb…8feebacked Yes24c32,702$7,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,009.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+86.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc29…7774backed Yes74c28,500$21,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,410366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa75…f082backed Yes35c28,174$9,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,178.28450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Yes26c27,453$7,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,336.1813342.1%56 W · 77 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73a3…ee24backed Yes19c26,124$4,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,160.38825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No14c24,032$3,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,418.321,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Yes20c23,067$4,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,345.0912251.6%63 W · 59 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8633…a08dbacked Yes58c22,950$13,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,549.922050%10 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Yes77c20,684$16,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,680.462958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbde…a758backed Yes24c20,633$4,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,685.892832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ddf…ab10backed Yes28c20,308$5,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,583.331711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-65.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00ff…f7adbacked Yes72c19,974$14,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,591.0211252.7%59 W · 53 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes18c19,919$3,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,333.53119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e15…0ac8backed Yes74c19,131$14,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,974.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed No26c18,743$4,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,873.08540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63f3…458bbacked Yes35c17,143$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,142.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1223…d424backed No36c15,523$5,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,593.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-51.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Yes73c15,000$10,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,02025043.2%108 W · 142 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Yes26c14,309$3,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,543.43137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-70.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3491…5909backed Yes33c13,926$4,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,353.69666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf665…b45ebacked Yes74c13,836$10,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,597.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a6c…dcdfbacked Yes73c13,700$10,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,699.02450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes19c13,419$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,869.066643.9%29 W · 37 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabf7…9820backed Yes21c12,958$2,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,267.29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+103.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes78c12,774$9,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,867.065,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd961…35debacked No26c12,318$3,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,220.89742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd39…109dbacked Yes47c12,033$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,433.22268.2%15 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes27c11,628$3,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,458.082055%11 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf410…ca73backed Yes73c11,625$8,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,138.84666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+53%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Yes19c10,905$2,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,833.3728539.6%113 W · 172 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes20c10,072$1,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,078.229833.7%33 W · 65 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-28.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x51b0…8468backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No27c10,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7003132.3%10 W · 21 L-4.5wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-41.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa974…ef79backed Yes34c9,999$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,599.662040%8 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf595…bfb5backed Yes21c9,600$2,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,584540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Yes31c9,423$2,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,460.581,15550.4%582 W · 573 L-34.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes31c9,184$2,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,379.698232.9%27 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-27.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No26c8,723$2,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,268.07955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4988…18e9backed Yes74c8,599$6,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,235.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No22c8,545$1,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,888.692,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dde…2ea7backed Yes22c8,312$1,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,5033129%9 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b30…29a4backed Yes74c7,797$5,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,027.3333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-55%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes19c7,555$1,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,104.183441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a80…c54cbacked Yes19c7,456$1,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,073.463420.6%7 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-51.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d14…318bbacked Yes19c7,352$1,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,931.38728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x064b…9990backed Yes26c7,080$1,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,267.88333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb4…3839backed Yes35c7,026$2,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,566.621729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-41.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed Yes22c6,974$1,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,429.24551.1%23 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes20c6,970$1,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,588.37757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+56.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes71c6,959$4,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,998.4834343.4%149 W · 194 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No80c6,948$5,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,527.0290645.4%411 W · 495 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes71c6,168$4,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,783.54966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58d6…8d67backed Yes20c6,021$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,821425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+25.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51ef…9257backed Yes18c6,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,919.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a33…2534backed Yes22c5,574$1,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,340.85556.4%31 W · 24 L+6.4wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+18.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaacb…45d7backed Yes20c5,454$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,368.511216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a08…9513backed Yes20c5,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,000333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1917…f8a0backed Yes22c5,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,899.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+127.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes18c4,995$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,095.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes30c4,925$1,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,448.942544%11 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-26.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fcb…f91abacked Yes34c4,800$1,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1681225%3 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f17…a918backed No27c4,627$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.640%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf02…4fdcbacked Yes24c4,579$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,499.12520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d31…4421backed Yes22c4,555$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,554.87540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Yes73c4,400$3,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,188.025100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc14f…7d8dbacked Yes35c4,400$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8602352.2%12 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No68c4,384$2,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,970.666336.5%23 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes28c4,245$1,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,058.48230.5%25 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-30.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No6c4,210$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2531,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8188…b171backed No79c4,119$3,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,250.675933.9%20 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d3f…db8dbacked Yes22c4,091$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,190.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3906…7556backed Yes24c4,015$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,064.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+111.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6ca…b27abacked Yes77c3,881$2,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.96837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-42.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e0b…9e5cbacked No77c3,773$2,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9122227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-46.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05bf…1ab0backed No28c3,633$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.3757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+35.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes23c3,400$772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6281850%9 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+20.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Yes75c3,302$2,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.671250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Yes34c3,269$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,157.47757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+23.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Yes73c3,164$2,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.381883.3%15 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+26.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Yes80c3,127$2,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick77cpaid+31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a15…9ca1backed Yes79c3,007$2,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae00…6af8backed Yes34c3,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,980425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x725b…8016backed Yes33c2,898$943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,955.01714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-56.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8214…ef72backed Yes73c2,865$2,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.4919446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf95a…12f7backed Yes35c2,856$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,856.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9553…cfc7backed Yes21c2,792$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,192.212653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f5a…4a26backed Yes35c2,723$953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,769.762100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+144.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked No27c2,708$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.154436.4%16 W · 28 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 70. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.