TailMyPicks
Market

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$296,204

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $296,204 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes1c85,705$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.572055%11 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4608…d049backed Yes1c72,269$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.741030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeba7…85b9backed Yes1c51,870$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001729.4%5 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes1c33,709$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.5916721%35 W · 132 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-39.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57e9…df05backed Yes1c31,572$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.31323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-38.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2511…98f4backed Yes1c21,423$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-57.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x985f…7a5bbacked Yes1c19,025$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.919051.1%46 W · 44 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a80…c54cbacked Yes1c18,708$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.373420.6%7 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-51.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes1c13,919$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.7490645.4%411 W · 495 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62f6…272ebacked Yes0c13,782$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0706…6ffebacked Yes2c10,871$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.044015%6 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-59.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5e4…b7aebacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10150%0 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd594…98c4backed Yes1c9,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9080%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xadec…7218backed Yes1c7,615$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c7,108$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.61230%0 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7b95…6141backed Yes1c7,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c6,425$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6829012.1%35 W · 255 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9449…d829backed Yes1c6,139$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.67170%0 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…7b83backed Yes1c6,050$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.96720.9%14 W · 53 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaa7…e4adbacked Yes1c6,007$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9070%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c5,904$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.247626.3%20 W · 56 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes1c4,983$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.612123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-24%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes1c4,142$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.71822.4%2 W · 80 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-88.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes2c4,084$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.638230.5%25 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-30.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cec…7c61backed Yes1c4,081$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428446.4%39 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81fa…c4d6backed Yes4c3,852$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.754330.2%13 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes1c3,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.56336.5%23 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6aa2…2d9ebacked Yes2c3,182$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-65.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes1c3,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3942934.3%147 W · 282 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes3c2,916$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.83128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-55.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03c0…14c1backed Yes1c2,915$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.151136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes1c2,790$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.18147.1%1 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid-63.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes4c2,132$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.0318147%85 W · 96 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7794…8df9backed Yes1c2,091$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253324.2%8 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-39.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a61…1787backed Yes2c2,026$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5216445.1%74 W · 90 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x06e6…c160backed Yes1c2,007$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cb9…e983backed Yes1c1,926$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2570%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes1c1,867$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.281,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7b5…fa78backed Yes1c1,800$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122714.8%4 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-59.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8f6…a384backed Yes1c1,766$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf96c…e62ebacked Yes1c1,720$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Yes1c1,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ef6…5afdbacked Yes1c1,600$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.74130%0 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabc5…38ccbacked Yes3c1,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec8e…39b0backed Yes1c1,488$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes3c1,463$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.23214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-60.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1051…ec4bbacked Yes1c1,360$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb942…8370backed Yes1c1,341$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc9f…3a3fbacked Yes1c1,224$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9093…7787backed Yes1c1,205$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4af…2f57backed Yes2c1,103$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes4c1,098$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9233438.9%130 W · 204 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4df…e4f3backed Yes1c1,053$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.531216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-46.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54d7…3463backed Yes1c1,011$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee28…8266backed Yes3c1,006$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2716436%59 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc5…ba79backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4275…5c95backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3d5…b033backed Yes3c974.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0342…3e9dbacked Yes2c966$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5547…515ebacked Yes4c934$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eea…c72abacked Yes2c930.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick8cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x678d…519fbacked Yes2c923$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0c8…e944backed Yes3c902.22$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.03911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa240…bf81backed Yes2c878$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x057a…ba39backed Yes2c848$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70dd…18cfbacked Yes1c840$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3521…104dbacked Yes2c834$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0d7…4355backed Yes5c833.61$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2efc…5686backed Yes2c782.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.94812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick6cpaid-67.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x364b…f9bebacked Yes2c773.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.32210%0 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0baa…5d15backed Yes2c747$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a18…893cbacked Yes4c744$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10a4…c178backed Yes2c681$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb1d…bd8cbacked Yes4c628$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbba8…f383backed Yes2c613.68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes2c497.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1510429.8%31 W · 73 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-38.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe4e…1774backed Yes4c492$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9fd…1fa0backed Yes3c481.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.981233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce9d…a219backed Yes4c455.25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.217542.7%32 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 70. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.