TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,575,012
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,143,008

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,575,012 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 895 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2707…0afabacked Yes5c187,582$10,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,123.296127.9%17 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes5c102,635$4,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,734.9761652.8%325 W · 291 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes5c44,916$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,200.41020%2 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick9cpaid-29.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd658…ecadbacked Yes6c35,250$2,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,151.55812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-75.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes4c24,935$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.133756.8%21 W · 16 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes5c20,305$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.82412.5%3 W · 21 L-4.6wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-68.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes4c18,408$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.1316721%35 W · 132 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-39.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes4c13,950$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.88232.9%27 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-27.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a80…c54cbacked Yes4c13,556$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.463420.6%7 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-51.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9449…d829backed Yes5c12,799$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.57170%0 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes5c12,575$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.15147.1%1 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid-63.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c12,145$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.787626.3%20 W · 56 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfaf…7affbacked Yes4c11,641$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.812733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49e0…5cc2backed Yes5c10,717$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd12…fa82backed Yes4c10,660$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0706…6ffebacked Yes4c10,141$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.434015%6 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-59.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed Yes4c10,080$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.19933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes5c10,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4502055%11 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1842…16eabacked Yes6c8,996$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11eb…9546backed Yes6c8,553$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65b5…a403backed Yes5c8,352$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.711650%8 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes4c7,525$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.498230.5%25 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-30.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c7,322$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.6629012.1%35 W · 255 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe33f…e413backed Yes4c7,020$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.1937246.2%172 W · 200 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Yes5c6,276$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.75450%27 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00c8…b05ebacked Yes5c5,859$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6981…b4f5backed Yes5c5,846$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Yes5c5,560$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.210846.3%50 W · 58 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes5c5,488$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.71190%0 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28c2…0114backed Yes4c5,361$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43b2…e861backed Yes5c5,287$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x369b…ad6dbacked Yes6c5,257$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d25…81eebacked Yes5c5,246$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.771338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-34.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes5c5,063$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.96120%0 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16bb…4452backed Yes6c4,866$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf87…4b72backed Yes5c4,732$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf799…6f8fbacked Yes6c4,534$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dc1…d269backed Yes4c4,359$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94a1…012ebacked Yes6c4,195$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05cf…c066backed Yes5c4,182$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…0bf8backed Yes4c4,180$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdba3…c20dbacked Yes4c4,126$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5c7…bf54backed Yes4c4,066$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18d5…4295backed Yes6c3,856$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4baf…b22bbacked Yes4c3,829$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.67224.5%1 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick15cpaid-93.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5396…84e3backed Yes4c3,721$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.99922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-65.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x971b…8c50backed Yes3c3,636$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbde…a758backed Yes3c3,600$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaef…56aebacked Yes6c3,566$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3efd…b982backed Yes4c3,453$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xced9…ff9dbacked Yes3c3,361$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11cf…544abacked Yes6c3,349$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fc1…4f07backed Yes3c3,304$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8214…ef72backed Yes5c3,213$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.5519446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b91…6831backed Yes4c3,194$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a17…b1a9backed Yes3c3,169$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a61…575bbacked Yes4c3,094$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc59…0bdcbacked Yes5c3,023$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes5c3,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.99714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9e4…7f5fbacked Yes5c2,925$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5f0…d345backed Yes4c2,893$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.031643.8%7 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick29cpaid-18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fe5…fcb7backed Yes4c2,886$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02db…46f5backed Yes5c2,859$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes4c2,846$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.26214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-60.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d1…4b63backed Yes5c2,832$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c1c…3694backed Yes3c2,827$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65b9…dc8cbacked Yes5c2,782$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a19…21cebacked Yes6c2,754$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bb5…a518backed Yes4c2,663$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.75714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.37per pick52cpaid-72.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5bf4…e09bbacked Yes4c2,654$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2965…6a44backed Yes4c2,634$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc42e…edbdbacked Yes5c2,626$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.884938.8%19 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf7e…b302backed Yes3c2,626$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9bf…4b29backed Yes4c2,617$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6464…23e3backed Yes6c2,600$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7290…b6c7backed Yes4c2,594$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33f8…1933backed Yes6c2,592$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe204…0ca8backed Yes5c2,591$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.99560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe52e…2681backed Yes3c2,578$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0cd…df48backed Yes6c2,544$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8524…0d86backed Yes6c2,531$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x272d…eee4backed Yes6c2,527$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x064d…a0e4backed Yes3c2,462$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.31156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-85.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Yes4c2,283$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.57137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-70.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39e7…7f83backed Yes3c2,275$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc7e…9822backed Yes4c2,273$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1d8…1edabacked Yes6c2,267$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4a8…549abacked Yes6c2,267$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4af2…6341backed Yes6c2,260$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eee…9b2bbacked Yes4c2,250$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995543.6%24 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9712…9057backed Yes5c2,235$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.5640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5999…6468backed Yes6c2,230$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99c4…0c89backed Yes5c2,230$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.822835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…ffbabacked Yes4c2,228$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9b4…3b2ebacked Yes6c2,226$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2502…433ebacked Yes6c2,226$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad93…3eacbacked Yes3c2,224$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34ba…275ebacked Yes5c2,219$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3401…e981backed Yes4c2,200$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ec4…e5a3backed Yes4c2,200$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 70. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.