TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3f62…e744

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
195
Categories scored
26
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: NBA, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 60 out of 100; worst Middle East at 31.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3030%9 W · 21 L-9.6wins-0.32per pick62cpaid-55.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
Middle East — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,206Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$594
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$5,025Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$2,475
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$2,660Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,659.84
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$2,492Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$1,879.74
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$4,883Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+28.1%+$1,370.71
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,896Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$598.8
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.56
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$52,141Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+95.5%+$49,789.11
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$24,060Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$24,060.01
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$38,697Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$38,697.03
Nothing Ever Happens: Khameneibacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$97.37
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$7,110Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$7,109.74
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$6,724Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$6,724.13
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$2,107Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$2,106.64
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$8,134Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$8,134.01
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,833Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,833.4
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$5,697Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$5,696.54
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,089Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,088.73
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$4,432Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$4,432.47
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$19,245Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$19,244.75
US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$188.81
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,218Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$2,217.87
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$840Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$840.28
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$64,004Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$64,004.28
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$256
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST2128.6%6 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-35.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
NFL — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 50M and 75M views in its first 7 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$17.51
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15,135Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$15,135.13
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$3,757Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$3,756.83
Will Callaita be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+122.2%+$254.1
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$209Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+199%+$416.08
Will "NUEVAYOL" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$24
Will "BAILE INOLVIDABLE" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$114.27
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$7,903Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+42.2%+$3,338.77
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$8,506Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$8,505.81
Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$324Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$324.25
Spread: Buccaneers (-4.5)backed Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$61.04
Falcons vs. Buccaneersbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,980Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$1,979.99
Falcons vs. Buccaneers: O/U 44.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$69.89
Colts vs. Jaguarsbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$397Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$397.5
Broncos vs. Commandersbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$863Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+39.1%+$337
49ers vs. Brownsbacked Browns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$922Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$922.4
Bears vs. Eaglesbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$3,650Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+122.8%+$4,481.6
Spread: Eagles (-7.5)backed Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$470Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$470
Bengals vs. Ravensbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$346Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$345.97
Chiefs vs. Cowboysbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$545Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+230.3%+$1,254.99
Packers vs. Lionsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$411Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$410.81
All 21 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2030%6 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-53.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+40.4%+$66.72
Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$30.4
Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$15.4
Will Prince Andrew be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$29.61
Will Ellen Degeneres be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+41.5%+$44.46
Will Bill Gates be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$118.6
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+129.4%+$266.08
Will the DHS shutdown end between February 24-27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$86.61
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$96.41
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$108
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$102.3
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$82.54
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$89,405Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+47.1%+$42,109.85
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$594Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$594.28
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$2,819Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$2,818.78
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$14,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$14,400.13
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$148.55
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$8,405Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$8,404.6
Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$477Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$477.3
Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$18,336Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+41.1%+$7,529.6
All 20 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT1650%8 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$478Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+33.8%+$161.29
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.95
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,612Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,611.61
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$907Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$906.8
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,052Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,052
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,839Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,839.29
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$2,315Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+25.6%+$593.23
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,405Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+91.7%+$2,203.94
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$4,564Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+51.7%+$2,361.75
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$504Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$503.7
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$430Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+77.3%+$332.31
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$342Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+65.4%+$223.53
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$470Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+31.7%+$148.87
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+146.3%+$55.12
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$224.78
All 16 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT1369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.26per pick44cpaid+121%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
NBA — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Thunder vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,043Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,042.71
Heat vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$10,704Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+42.2%+$4,520.56
Nuggets vs. Spursbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$884.88
Rockets vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$4,176Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+44.3%+$1,851.06
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$292.4
Heat vs. Magicbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$580Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$579.99
Warriors vs. Cavaliersbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+354.5%+$390
Mavericks vs. Clippersbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$688Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+309.9%+$2,131.35
Nuggets vs. Sunsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$372Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+61.3%+$227.99
Bulls vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+316.7%+$835.99
Raptors vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+284.6%+$740
Spurs vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$5,285Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$5,285.43
Spurs vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+104.1%+$21
All 13 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-46.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$363Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$362.7
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$887Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+37.6%+$333.46
Will "Love is Blind: Season 10" be the top US Netflix show this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$413Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$413.36
Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$318Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+38%+$120.8
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" be the top US Netflix movie this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$41.4
Will "Tyler Perry's Joe's College Road Trip" be the top US Netflix movie this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$20.25
Will "Tyler Perry's Joe's College Road Trip" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$21.85
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$110.5
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$237Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+45.3%+$107.38
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" score at least 65 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$218.86
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$48.83
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+117.4%+$155.02
All 12 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$292Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+433.8%+$1,265.52
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$717Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$717.25
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$315.67
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked Connecticut Huskies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,236Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+317.2%+$3,920.94
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$433Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$433.19
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$523Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$522.69
Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue Boilermakersbacked Miami Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$480Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$480
Lehigh Mountain Hawks vs. Prairie View A&M Panthersbacked Lehigh Mountain Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$6,209Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,208.91
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Texas Longhornsbacked Texas Longhorns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$2,187Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+75.6%+$1,653.4
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-50.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Moltbook shutdown by Feb 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$33.81
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$44.82
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$219.42
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$54.4
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$3,722Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$3,722.41
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$63,132Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+39.2%+$24,759.37
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$774Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+43.9%+$340.12
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$311Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+61.3%+$190.34
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15,826Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15,825.89
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$762Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$761.72
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$36.64
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$217Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+44.9%+$97.5
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$9,240Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+35.3%+$3,259.19
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$14,794Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$14,794.23
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$3,075Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+33.1%+$1,017.7
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$6,032Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$6,031.76
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$112.59
Honduras Election: Nasralla flips Asfura by Tuesday 12 PM ET?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+278.3%+$43.9
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST850%4 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$212.2
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$758Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$757.79
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$46,016Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$46,015.62
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$31,424Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+87%+$27,332.73
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14,938Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$14,938.05
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$284,648Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+92.8%+$264,217.03
Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve before February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+170.3%+$61.4
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+224.7%+$207.6
All 8 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+91.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+20.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+95.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+76.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Philliesbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,777Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+108.8%+$1,932.89
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Oriolesbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,802Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$1,257.79
All 2 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Yan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+244.8%+$142
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$691Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+41.4%+$285.79
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$36.01
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stagebacked Xtreme Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$9,986Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$9,985.64
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.