TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,298,466
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,417,946

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,298,466 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 736 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4266…0e08backed No5c113,182$5,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,741.16850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd1…6feebacked No0c110,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-19%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x95c8…f511backed No0c95,000$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1151526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c6a…8015backed No0c78,688$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6c9…7863backed No1c74,015$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0460…8d22backed No16c59,381$9,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,360.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x858d…1047backed Yes14c57,614$8,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,319.911145.5%5 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.30per pick16cpaid+109.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2a1a…2ffebacked Yes13c55,026$6,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,119.18425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f9d…3836backed No1c52,582$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+33%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked No0c47,991$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.3580%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d63…348dbacked Yes15c43,680$6,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,918.121050%5 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+160.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc77a…daf8backed Yes10c42,845$4,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,609.711816.7%3 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick5cpaid+64.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x05a9…1e0dbacked No0c37,163$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.3620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes19c36,965$7,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,765.943132.3%10 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1913…b494backed Yes16c36,838$5,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,886.28825%2 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+30.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2233…6fc1backed No0c31,480$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes14c31,345$4,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,974.341369.2%9 W · 4 L+6.3wins+0.48per pick21cpaid+234.4%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed No47c31,239$14,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,662.1128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick28cpaid-87.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked No12c30,260$3,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,574.781315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-73.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7c1…0193backed Yes14c27,248$3,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,461.551338.5%5 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.25per pick14cpaid+87.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked No0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2580%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe487…aca6backed No72c24,983$17,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,890.65650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf47b…780dbacked No0c24,545$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe598…a0a8backed No1c24,187$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.671030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-54.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbab8…3597backed No1c24,000$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes70c23,044$16,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,992.81560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes18c22,513$4,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,392.684845.8%22 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+7.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5176…abc2backed No0c21,837$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fba…8a7dbacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e2…b8f5backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c2…a1b0backed Yes10c19,395$1,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,514.67966.7%6 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.35per pick31cpaid+136.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2c57…1396backed No1c19,250$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No76c18,784$14,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,300.711747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6989…b412backed No79c17,149$13,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,477.851850%9 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8204…56eabacked Yes9c16,145$1,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,647.03825%2 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+159.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c83…72bebacked Yes21c15,880$3,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,557.98450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+102.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No25c15,214$3,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,836.761145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+22.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed No0c15,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3560%0 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes28c13,950$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,049.56955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.24per pick32cpaid+42.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes15c13,884$2,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,866.951729.4%5 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick16cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x32d1…b949backed No1c12,631$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.7940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a18…6ffabacked Yes15c12,470$1,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,647.09616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5666…c630backed Yes27c12,000$3,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,819.962030%6 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes14c11,838$1,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,198.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+261%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No4c11,500$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.011118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-57.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c11,311$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3190%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…b496backed Yes16c10,958$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,158.192548%12 W · 13 L+4.3wins+0.17per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb232…b555backed Yes15c10,422$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,822.29475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick27cpaid+216.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaddd…9407backed No69c10,287$7,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,053.83540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-44.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed Yes24c10,026$2,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,631.342365.2%15 W · 8 L+5.1wins+0.22per pick43cpaid+51.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked No0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303315.2%5 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+46.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e9e…509cbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x769c…6c64backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No72c10,000$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,199.99742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick65cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xab19…4876backed No79c10,000$7,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,899.9550%0 W · 5 L-3.1wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfddf…f33dbacked Yes14c9,962$1,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,557.75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+136.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes22c9,430$2,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,364.751546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e34…42ffbacked No0c9,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27b4…4278backed No79c8,191$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,500862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick67cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5078…00e9backed Yes19c8,166$1,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,601.68616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd86e…ee3ebacked No12c8,122$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.06825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2826…5ea2backed No79c8,012$6,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,311.23475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedc0…99f3backed Yes36c8,000$2,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,151.52035%7 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-39.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes20c8,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,399.963119.4%6 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2450…8108backed No76c7,821$5,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,957.56366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes23c7,609$1,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,829.441338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+56.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ee1…2f39backed No1c7,040$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c3c…5eeabacked No40c6,970$2,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,815.79560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed No1c6,799$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.991729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-53.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes29c6,705$1,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,776.363256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes35c6,211$2,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,049.311978.9%15 W · 4 L+5.5wins+0.29per pick50cpaid+81.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed No73c6,161$4,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,476.391553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked Yes19c6,046$1,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,903.42475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick30cpaid+153.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed Yes29c6,007$1,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,285.191070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+43.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd863…0e2cbacked Yes79c5,983$4,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,269.921020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-24.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe49c…481bbacked Yes25c5,891$1,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,395.94633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked No4c5,876$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.471735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0fc…c715backed No0c5,782$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes26c5,607$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,166.852650%13 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed No16c5,562$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.85520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-65.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0da0…73e2backed Yes9c5,558$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,058.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+455.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf286…55e0backed Yes20c5,489$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,417.13616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3248…f20bbacked No78c5,419$4,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,207.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-49.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf05…70dabacked Yes21c5,355$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,229.83825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a2a…0179backed Yes61c5,293$3,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,067.26475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+27.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes26c5,244$1,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,896.721643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc0c…cfc9backed Yes29c5,051$1,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,596.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+247.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3790…f78fbacked No1c5,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe194…cd47backed Yes6c5,000$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,689.991127.3%3 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.24per pick3cpaid+332%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbdbb…084ebacked No4c5,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20060%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4167…2427backed No70c5,000$3,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,489.99450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes31c4,800$1,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,314.862030%6 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaed…fd99backed Yes21c4,762$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,761.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick20cpaid+162.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b78…e410backed No73c4,457$3,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,250.140%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x49b2…ffd0backed No0c4,380$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xede5…7802backed Yes17c4,359$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,628.071643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.21per pick23cpaid+92.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaae6…522dbacked No1c4,338$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef48…ef15backed Yes35c4,334$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,834.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+39.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb52…92eebacked No71c4,206$3,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,006.17850%4 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes77c4,185$3,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.83862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+25.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.