Venezuela · resolved market
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fa3cfab9c53c89b71a72b4d8d0fd2a726c9c8b5feb73636dd9ee9ba1e8dbfc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $229,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $252,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $229,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes | 1c | 31,995$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.32 | 70 | 2.9%2 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8652…3ce4backed Yes | 0c | 22,232$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 2c | 10,185$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.15 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 9,600$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 1c | 8,448$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.89 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…3061backed Yes | 1c | 6,605$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.58 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 2c | 5,149$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.63 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f16…03f3backed Yes | 2c | 5,050$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 1c | 2,679$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0d…1064backed Yes | 1c | 2,019$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5078…00e9backed Yes | 1c | 1,612$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,599$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28a…6bdcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,598$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,159$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 2c | 1,111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…9e19backed Yes | 5c | 1,056$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,049$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c6…00a2backed Yes | 2c | 1,003$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 1c | 999.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x819e…e967backed Yes | 1c | 934.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f92…dcedbacked Yes | 2c | 820.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed Yes | 8c | 712.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 2c | 639.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 3c | 606.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb28c…be33backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…c5b6backed Yes | 7c | 479.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a54…efafbacked Yes | 5c | 383.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b78…2637backed Yes | 5c | 365.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7698…5136backed Yes | 6c | 276.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…ff99backed Yes | 6c | 269.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c8…84a0backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 3?this page
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 5?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 9?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 1?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 21?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 23?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 24?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 25?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 26?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 27?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 2?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 5?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by October 24?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by October 27?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.