Venezuela · resolved market
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b3251d2b414f75280ad4626de201089b8be8043c6c531497a1549540f6717e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $310,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $304,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $310,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 5c | 37,076$1,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,711.98 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 1c | 14,955$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.9 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 14,448$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.3 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03af…87cbbacked Yes | 4c | 10,383$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.56 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 1c | 9,743$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.33 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed Yes | 1c | 9,035$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 1c | 7,732$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 2c | 7,144$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.02 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 1c | 6,550$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 1c | 5,002$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60df…a69ebacked Yes | 3c | 4,442$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 3c | 4,266$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 1c | 4,163$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,403$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 1c | 2,968$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 1c | 2,941$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8474…247bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,929$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,774$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.86 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef43…7b62backed Yes | 2c | 2,571$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…e9cbbacked Yes | 6c | 2,532$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.44 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…72ebbacked Yes | 7c | 2,493$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c60…0b12backed Yes | 2c | 2,455$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked Yes | 1c | 2,222$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x376d…9b48backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…8908backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbab9…9d74backed Yes | 1c | 1,995$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 1c | 1,961$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf3…4ec6backed Yes | 5c | 1,863$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb9…1cb4backed Yes | 3c | 1,856$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc741…880abacked Yes | 3c | 1,833$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 2c | 1,818$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb399…a06abacked Yes | 5c | 1,810$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…9d93backed Yes | 6c | 1,590$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0989…1b82backed Yes | 6c | 1,588$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.51 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2b…b73abacked Yes | 6c | 1,561$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.01 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 1c | 1,507$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9198…6b22backed Yes | 2c | 1,122$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed Yes | 2c | 1,111$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc630…fbe4backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 2c | 999.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 1c | 992.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 5c | 801.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b332backed Yes | 2c | 800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…85e8backed Yes | 3c | 787.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 2c | 701.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed Yes | 4c | 606.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8646…5f2fbacked Yes | 5c | 534.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed Yes | 4c | 518.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x435f…5ca0backed Yes | 2c | 518.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcae5…55a9backed Yes | 5c | 500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d3…1c0bbacked Yes | 3c | 458.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15dd…05adbacked Yes | 11c | 445.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 3c | 434.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…60b4backed Yes | 3c | 357.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes | 5c | 299.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 4c | 268.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…8a69backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…1e3abacked Yes | 7c | 140.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 9?this page
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 5?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 1?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 21?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 23?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 24?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 25?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 26?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 27?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 2?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 3?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 5?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by October 24?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by October 27?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.