Venezuela · resolved market
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0a8054ce6ce1c55ff8afd3adc897bf6936a27dc21b8359be48e37abc553ea89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $696,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $500,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $696,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 0c | 67,428$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.24 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 0c | 45,495$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.93 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 1c | 40,319$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.49 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 1c | 39,131$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.32 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 0c | 26,612$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes | 1c | 24,500$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.84 | 70 | 2.9%2 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 0c | 19,063$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe487…aca6backed Yes | 9c | 17,636$1,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,507.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699d…58d2backed Yes | 1c | 14,605$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 1c | 12,512$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.87 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes | 2c | 11,751$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…34f7backed Yes | 1c | 10,890$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.31 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 1c | 10,274$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,171$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.46 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…b1a5backed Yes | 0c | 10,046$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…0b22backed Yes | 1c | 8,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 1c | 8,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9dd…b761backed Yes | 2c | 7,467$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…d53abacked Yes | 0c | 7,222$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 1c | 6,642$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed Yes | 1c | 6,208$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…aaaebacked Yes | 7c | 5,764$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 4c | 5,726$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.82 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -30%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b30…84ccbacked Yes | 1c | 5,353$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f90…153dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,154$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ac…ad7fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,083$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,798$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9673…a116backed Yes | 1c | 4,512$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a17…4340backed Yes | 1c | 4,333$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 3c | 4,040$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.19 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 1c | 3,920$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -69%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f16…03f3backed Yes | 1c | 3,846$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 4c | 3,647$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.14 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed Yes | 1c | 3,624$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…275dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,319$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…650bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,238$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61e…794cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…78c9backed Yes | 0c | 3,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf77c…7a01backed Yes | 1c | 2,833$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 2c | 2,680$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…68f4backed Yes | 2c | 2,508$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5273…d975backed Yes | 1c | 2,191$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…72b6backed Yes | 2c | 2,150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 20cpaid | +99.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5e…49edbacked Yes | 3c | 2,076$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e2…f3bbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,059$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 1c | 2,009$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…6fb8backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,949$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 2c | 1,700$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 9c | 1,698$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.78 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,576$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 2c | 1,570$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…c498backed Yes | 1c | 1,534$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2f…7976backed Yes | 1c | 1,373$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,360$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea8f…8f6abacked Yes | 1c | 1,320$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,299$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.94 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…8379backed Yes | 1c | 1,243$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,215$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…1caabacked Yes | 1c | 1,154$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 2c | 1,093$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +565%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,011$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 8c | 650$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked Yes | 5c | 599.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x819e…e967backed Yes | 7c | 566.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5263…82f2backed Yes | 6c | 350$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b55…01c6backed Yes | 10c | 259.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x054a…f218backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde50…cf46backed Yes | 6c | 222.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 61c | 134.62$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Venezuela military engagement by October 27?this page
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 5?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 9?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 1?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 21?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 23?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 24?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 25?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 26?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 27?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 2?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 3?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 5?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by October 24?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.