TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$817,622
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$745,629

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $817,622 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 293 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6058…d286backed No80c39,795$31,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,127.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17a5…c36fbacked Yes5c33,389$1,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,732.71837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick20cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes20c23,116$4,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,541.960%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc5fe…e320backed Yes10c20,753$2,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,101.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes4c20,189$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.55219.2%10 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-35.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes16c15,869$2,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,525.59520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-43.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e28…dc83backed Yes10c15,703$1,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,594.8270%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7cb…c76fbacked Yes22c15,009$3,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,344.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9636…1f74backed No78c12,750$9,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,865.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32be…58dbbacked Yes4c12,483$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed Yes16c12,441$2,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,005.521735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick26cpaid-30%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed No77c11,160$8,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,552.531060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes9c10,689$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.25702.9%2 W · 68 L+0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-81.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bde…8c91backed No77c10,436$8,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,402.353100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes3c9,999$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.513063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes22c9,705$2,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,135.071414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-58.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes3c9,662$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.8740%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x33ad…e148backed Yes4c7,777$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.8130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25ee…c453backed Yes13c7,639$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2b…650bbacked Yes2c7,215$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.1880%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes18c7,076$1,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,285.36140%0 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5c6…fb6abacked Yes6c6,882$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa71c…7fd3backed Yes20c6,565$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,333.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes21c6,000$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,280540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-44.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x509d…0f6ebacked Yes14c5,750$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.5520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-44.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes11c5,632$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.143119.4%6 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeec…aa69backed No79c5,603$4,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54bb…35e5backed Yes23c5,526$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x700c…9368backed Yes24c5,509$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7816…ce35backed Yes4c5,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd30…29aebacked Yes4c5,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa4a…4f22backed Yes8c4,917$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked Yes18c4,909$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+53.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9f2…1df8backed Yes18c4,812$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes2c4,761$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.562326.1%6 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick14cpaid-9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed No74c4,439$3,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.03366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+24.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a1f…8280backed Yes20c4,292$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2950…4b36backed Yes15c4,238$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes13c3,924$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.24126.8%11 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes24c3,696$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.152917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-63%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes4c3,537$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.97137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-85.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes15c3,492$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.411926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-61.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes4c3,309$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.7666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes9c3,194$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.772725.9%7 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked Yes1c3,075$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7190%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe352…f259backed Yes4c3,000$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53bf…bc10backed Yes5c2,858$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes15c2,853$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.26219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-52.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdeb9…1cb4backed Yes1c2,849$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3870%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc472…ced9backed Yes4c2,791$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes12c2,555$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.345121.6%11 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c0e…1411backed Yes13c2,423$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3152010%2 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-68.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1cc…e2ebbacked Yes4c2,220$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked Yes1c2,018$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.44166.3%1 W · 15 L-4.0wins-0.25per pick31cpaid-87%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0b9b…a65ebacked Yes3c2,000$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6650%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed No75c2,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+39.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x55e9…150dbacked Yes7c1,996$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aa2…6a1bbacked Yes5c1,976$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-51.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50fb…80c8backed Yes5c1,926$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,891$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.321644.9%8 W · 156 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-75.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No77c1,882$1,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.441070%7 W · 3 L+3.7wins+0.37per pick33cpaid+118.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8662…c94fbacked Yes23c1,775$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.252317.4%4 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-40.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1ff…55bdbacked No76c1,710$1,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.75742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+100.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes13c1,700$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2292650%13 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbde…befabacked Yes23c1,695$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa416…025ebacked Yes25c1,640$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b30…84ccbacked Yes4c1,576$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.161612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-71.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes18c1,562$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.31338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+56.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd061…d5e4backed Yes13c1,500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.232313%3 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc5c…a171backed Yes4c1,500$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00f2…212ebacked Yes20c1,500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb15…5b3abacked Yes7c1,457$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa628…9d0fbacked Yes10c1,420$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.0640%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes16c1,363$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.753243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8fd…4373backed No77c1,295$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.29250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59ae…6264backed Yes4c1,277$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c1,267$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.897435.1%26 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-37.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a66…3dbabacked Yes4c1,264$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.43160%0 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x02b1…fb65backed Yes11c1,261$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ac9…155abacked Yes20c1,251$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes11c1,250$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.492119%4 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-61.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes14c1,237$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.731118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x381f…bc99backed Yes15c1,214$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes15c1,213$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.613828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd2…0bd8backed No79c1,200$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e40…f622backed Yes16c1,173$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf961…62bbbacked Yes23c1,161$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No77c1,154$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.011346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes10c1,100$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd57e…95f3backed Yes9c1,069$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a15…68abbacked Yes16c1,066$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes4c1,056$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0350%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0a3…f425backed Yes17c1,047$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes20c1,017$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.931822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-50.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes2c1,005$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5260%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes16c1,000$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.893132.3%10 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c7…191abacked Yes24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-44.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24070%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f3…d536backed Yes7c943.35$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.