TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$941,599
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$943,229

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $941,599 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 263 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes2c85,368$1,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,659.815121.6%11 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes0c26,929$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.662619.2%5 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd10…a689backed Yes2c23,257$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes2c22,285$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.791926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-52.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes1c22,236$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.83315.2%5 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+46.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes1c18,998$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.67468.7%4 W · 42 L-0.2wins0.00per pick9cpaid-54.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ee7…1713backed Yes4c18,329$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes6c16,910$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.592917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-63%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes0c16,001$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.22733.3%9 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes1c11,054$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.796841.2%28 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes2c11,038$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.3219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-52.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes1c11,035$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6260%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes5c9,592$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.733132.3%10 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x86d1…2bddbacked Yes3c9,567$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56db…750bbacked Yes2c8,488$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes3c8,412$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.692326.1%6 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick14cpaid-9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c7,050$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.59160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf969…7ce8backed Yes1c6,970$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.0970%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes6c6,912$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.731729.4%5 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick16cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bb3…5a71backed Yes2c6,732$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.27520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+81.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes0c6,667$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28702.9%2 W · 68 L+0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-81.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf05…70dabacked Yes3c6,085$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dba…172fbacked Yes2c4,997$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.07560%3 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.39per pick21cpaid+72.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed Yes1c4,974$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.821735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick26cpaid-30%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes6c4,907$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.44742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick11cpaid+225.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfcdd…b038backed Yes2c4,598$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.44650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f61…011abacked Yes2c4,433$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes2c4,221$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.141369.2%9 W · 4 L+6.3wins+0.48per pick21cpaid+234.4%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x3bea…f95abacked Yes1c4,204$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402020%4 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cc5…6092backed Yes2c4,192$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8470%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xede5…7802backed Yes6c4,121$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.771643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.21per pick23cpaid+92.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcfe6…3017backed Yes5c4,064$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb401…df2abacked Yes1c4,061$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.54633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-49.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes2c3,900$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7890%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a01…fcacbacked Yes2c3,691$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7f2…7027backed Yes3c3,518$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.321711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.21per pick33cpaid-83.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc44d…e5ccbacked Yes7c3,174$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes2c3,054$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.05933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+40.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed Yes19c3,000$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5651833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69bf…1737backed Yes2c2,906$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x486a…8a09backed Yes3c2,630$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes7c2,600$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.542334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb950…4dd4backed Yes14c2,547$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.5170%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x03c8…0e01backed Yes2c2,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.22326.3%2 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-82.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes1c2,496$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.65014%7 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-69%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x725f…c932backed Yes23c2,483$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5273…d975backed Yes1c2,429$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.29460%0 W · 46 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd08…4a59backed Yes14c2,297$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.6837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed Yes1c2,286$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.151442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed Yes3c2,247$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6640%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9aa…bb40backed Yes5c2,112$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.59616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2ae…c3afbacked Yes2c2,104$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed Yes1c2,100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.31643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cd1…a151backed Yes17c2,059$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes1c2,005$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.123256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x09f0…1e82backed Yes17c2,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3680…a456backed Yes16c2,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32060%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9c2…e2c4backed Yes2c2,000$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Yes16c2,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-59%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd18d…fc51backed Yes2c2,000$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.21040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes5c1,988$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.191741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-31.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0429…df8fbacked Yes3c1,861$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5e9e…509cbacked Yes2c1,803$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde31…4f59backed Yes2c1,779$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41fe…79c1backed Yes5c1,772$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a89…b868backed Yes16c1,757$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76d4…3ad4backed Yes20c1,730$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.4230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed Yes3c1,683$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4860%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes1c1,658$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.911811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes15c1,600$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2461030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes5c1,517$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.082441.7%10 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+58.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Yes1c1,503$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.022638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6434…72b6backed Yes7c1,478$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.951643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.7wins+0.23per pick20cpaid+99.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb79f…d749backed Yes1c1,453$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.44110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x731d…32c9backed Yes7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf061…906cbacked Yes7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes14c1,412$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.452025%5 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-26.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff4…a683backed Yes7c1,400$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e77…482ebacked Yes6c1,284$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.0540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8660…7a93backed Yes2c1,260$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe49c…481bbacked Yes8c1,253$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4659…8a38backed Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8214…ef72backed Yes18c1,231$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb20b…8da0backed Yes7c1,227$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.512917.2%5 W · 24 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-55.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfda2…c52bbacked Yes1c1,200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9394…45e5backed Yes5c1,191$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3550%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f85…8693backed Yes5c1,170$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.061540%6 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3846…d66fbacked Yes6c1,160$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95da…60b4backed Yes2c1,128$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2570%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0ad…c8e3backed Yes9c1,109$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes4c1,100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.422334.8%8 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick20cpaid+43.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7994…0b69backed Yes3c1,089$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a4b…975ebacked Yes7c1,071$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick24cpaid+116.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c67…9232backed Yes7c1,071$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-51.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b8…c770backed Yes3c1,060$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.21944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick15cpaid+210.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8420…6183backed Yes2c1,021$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-50.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8204…56eabacked Yes18c1,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180825%2 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+159.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69c9…ed1abacked Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.