Venezuela · resolved market
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7b9a3bb729a5e2ba090932ae5c1bcb471e6dfc03f158776cac16d09b8b5ab92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $326,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $287,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $326,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05c5…1d0abacked Yes | 0c | 32,590$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes | 0c | 20,095$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.31 | 70 | 2.9%2 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 14,728$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.32 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f16…03f3backed Yes | 2c | 14,096$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.51 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…3061backed Yes | 2c | 14,078$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.02 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca3…cb95backed Yes | 1c | 12,100$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 4c | 10,229$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.17 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.37 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe8…f492backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed Yes | 1c | 9,564$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed Yes | 2c | 5,213$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.34 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,667$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.07 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 3c | 4,331$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 6c | 4,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…7ce8backed Yes | 2c | 3,750$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa10e…0ddfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,222$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d81…2b63backed Yes | 2c | 2,140$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 1c | 2,008$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 1c | 1,951$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e1…3cf3backed Yes | 2c | 1,771$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,700$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec4…fa49backed Yes | 2c | 1,696$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 1c | 1,590$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…c498backed Yes | 2c | 1,553$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…3afcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,429$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Yes | 2c | 1,333$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a0…8c83backed Yes | 2c | 1,332$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 1c | 1,300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef4…520dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,107$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…d2abbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 2c | 977.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbb…de8cbacked Yes | 2c | 972.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x819e…e967backed Yes | 2c | 895.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4561…59d4backed Yes | 6c | 836.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c49…7af9backed Yes | 5c | 831$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc27b…43cbbacked Yes | 1c | 785.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 5c | 750$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…8379backed Yes | 1c | 746.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…29d1backed Yes | 3c | 714.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 2c | 617.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 3c | 600$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…9cabbacked Yes | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb28c…be33backed Yes | 2c | 499.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 4c | 499.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a54…efafbacked Yes | 3c | 483.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…5e17backed Yes | 5c | 408.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…57f5backed Yes | 3c | 407.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc72d…320fbacked Yes | 6c | 326.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…0d1bbacked Yes | 5c | 238.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 1?this page
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 5?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 9?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 21?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 23?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 24?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 25?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 26?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 27?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 2?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 3?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 5?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by October 24?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by October 27?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.