TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

US x Venezuela military engagement by November 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$841,108
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$858,134

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $841,108 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 304 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes13c25,000$3,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,246.131414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-58.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e86…8727backed Yes19c24,550$4,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,747.74633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-42.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes16c18,655$2,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,970.651729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4266…0e08backed No76c18,582$14,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,405.25850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes14c17,306$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,340.462941.4%12 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid-8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Yes26c17,147$4,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,431.9310%0 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes1c15,062$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.345014%7 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-69%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c12,459$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.51160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes5c12,036$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.16219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-52.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes4c12,000$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.052917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-63%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes1c12,000$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes2c11,851$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.2425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-51.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes3c11,316$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.93702.9%2 W · 68 L+0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-81.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Yes1c11,191$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.291656.3%9 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+3.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Yes14c11,000$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,539.9990%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes1c10,294$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7780%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7c47…882abacked Yes3c9,671$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c9,280$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes3c8,641$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.34140%0 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x251a…32adbacked Yes1c8,621$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e84…ef69backed Yes2c8,580$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.372236.4%8 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x57aa…04c5backed Yes1c8,267$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5273…d975backed Yes10c8,137$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.17460%0 W · 46 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes11c7,503$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.232619.2%5 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes1c7,290$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.13953.8%21 W · 18 L+5.6wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+76.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2d04…cfc5backed Yes24c7,256$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,740.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-51.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f82…e964backed Yes2c6,034$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes3c5,912$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.151618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-38.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b48…3b37backed Yes2c5,063$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5250%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6da…a209backed Yes3c5,001$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes14c4,831$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.346040%24 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-33.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes3c4,822$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.5650%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb612…c6b0backed Yes3c4,618$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e28…dc83backed Yes25c4,532$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.9770%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes8c4,328$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.135121.6%11 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x711c…8495backed Yes1c4,098$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes1c4,000$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523315.2%5 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+46.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a64…efd5backed Yes1c3,870$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.96714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7912…ffc3backed Yes1c3,786$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.26728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick17cpaid-46.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d27…62cabacked Yes2c3,745$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.44333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes2c3,725$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.52326.1%6 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick14cpaid-9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd11e…699fbacked Yes17c3,671$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.4850%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e76…2c4ebacked Yes2c3,419$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a66…3dbabacked Yes9c3,338$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.24160%0 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed No76c3,320$2,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.4666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick61cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c3,312$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.761644.9%8 W · 156 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-75.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd2…2925backed Yes10c3,228$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.5740%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd74d…ff5ebacked No79c3,029$2,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1128…cfa5backed Yes9c3,024$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.27175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-84.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9d9…5670backed Yes27c2,850$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-54.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1db…838dbacked Yes2c2,786$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5460%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes3c2,649$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.47137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-85.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c22…9b23backed Yes3c2,555$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1860%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d4a…a1dcbacked Yes15c2,534$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3912030%6 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa5c…5226backed No79c2,523$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.34366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes1c2,519$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f2…7027backed Yes4c2,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.21per pick33cpaid-83.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x919e…d915backed Yes5c2,500$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.981822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-57.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Yes8c2,400$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.09911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27db…e863backed No76c2,397$1,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.51833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71ff…acc5backed No73c2,322$1,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.873100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed Yes3c2,300$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-78.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes23c2,297$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.381233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0943…5fc0backed Yes2c2,257$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes1c2,222$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.551216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-44.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x028c…2419backed No77c2,219$1,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-58.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f6e…7918backed Yes5c2,165$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8867…4ae5backed Yes28c2,080$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.58650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+31.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fb1…36f3backed Yes3c2,029$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7140%0 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5157…aa2cbacked No80c2,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-50.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x62af…89f3backed No75c2,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5001100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes1c2,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222030%6 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes26c2,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.993119.4%6 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e6…1abcbacked Yes3c2,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes19c1,998$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.631526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-50%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed Yes4c1,950$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.822321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes4c1,931$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.21020%2 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-66.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e47…3715backed Yes15c1,908$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.250%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c67…9232backed Yes3c1,833$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-51.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes14c1,779$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.794126.8%11 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6989…b412backed No72c1,776$1,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.811850%9 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfac…490fbacked No75c1,769$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.591369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf45c…90b5backed Yes3c1,671$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9256…2e8bbacked Yes8c1,658$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.2333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-39.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb1ec…8bf1backed Yes2c1,619$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7770%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cdc…ab3abacked Yes21c1,615$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.13520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-66.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes1c1,572$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.84333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick13cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e40…f622backed Yes3c1,542$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x374a…6fb8backed Yes1c1,500$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.860%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0a9…67e4backed Yes3c1,449$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6d6…395bbacked Yes4c1,424$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf710…edc9backed Yes3c1,402$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.342630.8%8 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+5.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x638d…3e5bbacked No73c1,402$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.542100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes12c1,360$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.64845.8%22 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+7.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf3b4…27f7backed Yes5c1,345$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x819e…e967backed Yes1c1,335$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.472412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-69.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b8b…3c39backed Yes3c1,305$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37110%0 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes1c1,304$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.68837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick14cpaid+49.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb07a…4d19backed No79c1,266$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf6…fecebacked Yes3c1,223$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.