Venezuela · resolved market
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x206662f144a3241bcd1aaa4a2a82268ff90c2f371f88f1279dfa3bac15aaa259
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $174,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $203,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes | 1c | 20,723$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.72 | 70 | 2.9%2 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4a…a1dcbacked Yes | 2c | 7,346$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 2c | 7,122$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.64 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2f…21babacked Yes | 3c | 4,664$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.66 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked Yes | 1c | 4,592$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed Yes | 1c | 4,399$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 20c | 3,375$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.7 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x819e…e967backed Yes | 1c | 3,334$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe27…52b7backed Yes | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 9c | 2,854$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.29 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03af…87cbbacked Yes | 16c | 2,081$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.87 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8b…3c39backed Yes | 9c | 1,806$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 5c | 1,763$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.45 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe261…b9e7backed Yes | 6c | 1,579$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a8…586abacked No | 80c | 1,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 10c | 1,462$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 2c | 1,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -69%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…2c21backed Yes | 15c | 1,240$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.3 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…5d4fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,138$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…c5b6backed Yes | 11c | 1,015$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 16c | 999.98$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c23…0266backed Yes | 8c | 999.98$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…3dbabacked Yes | 3c | 900$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 12c | 800$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.86 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 12c | 699.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…1559backed Yes | 10c | 689.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.31 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x028c…2419backed Yes | 3c | 687.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d4…2b0dbacked Yes | 8c | 653.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…37dabacked Yes | 9c | 634$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…b26cbacked Yes | 12c | 617.33$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b30…84ccbacked Yes | 4c | 599.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8828…2954backed Yes | 5c | 483.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 7c | 378.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x685b…69efbacked Yes | 4c | 318.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa359…a882backed Yes | 9c | 311.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb1…36f3backed Yes | 9c | 307.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1da…0370backed Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 12c | 273.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7a…d37ebacked Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7a…c772backed Yes | 8c | 240.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ba…a074backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed Yes | 8c | 219.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd046…98b1backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0b…5334backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf5…149bbacked Yes | 19c | 194.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd592…b119backed Yes | 7c | 193$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9771…0c8dbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4858…c8aabacked Yes | 15c | 170$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 8c | 142.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…450abacked No | 79c | 130$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c2…1540backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 10c | 111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Yes | 13c | 108$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb59…69b6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…28f9backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11e…699fbacked Yes | 15c | 90.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe131…174abacked Yes | 14c | 85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…5073backed Yes | 64c | 18.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…d37cbacked No | 78c | 15.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 25?this page
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 5?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 9?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 1?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 21?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 23?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 24?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 26?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 27?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 2?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 3?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 5?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by October 24?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by October 27?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.