TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9394…37da

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
179
Categories scored
24
Categories below 50
15

Best Category: Macro Indicators, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Macro Indicators at 57 out of 100; worst Venezuela at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT2321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$163.16
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$56.76
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$100
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$516Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$516.05
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+350.7%+$455.92
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$553Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$552.94
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$863Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$863.5
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.32
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$478Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+115.2%+$550.02
Will four or more people dissent the September Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$65
Will three people dissent the September Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will two people dissent the September Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will one person dissent the September Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+460%+$115
Will Powell say "Uncertainty" 7+ times during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.42
Will Powell say "Employment / Unemployment" 20+ times during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$21.64
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$187.92
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+34.5%+$24.79
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.6
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$322Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$322.5
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$111.37
All 23 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-42.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+300%+$150
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+26.3%+$18.42
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+70.5%+$21.16
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+70.2%+$49.15
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
England vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$55.38
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Spread: France (-2.5)backed Paraguay · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$40.85
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.24
Will Portugal win the UEFA Nations League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.8
All 21 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT2045%9 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+43%+$21.5
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$52.5
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% and 9%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+34.9%+$17.45
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$46.15
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.36
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.43
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+242.2%+$49.91
Will VVD win fewer than 14 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$87.71
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Andrónico Rodríguez win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$32
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$12.8
Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$64
Will Irfaan Ali win the 2025 Guyana presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will LDP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$106.74
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$14.78
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+379%+$511.44
All 20 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$596Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+69.4%+$413.86
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$88.1
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$495Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$495.3
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.8
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the US strike Iran next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$68.69
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Iran Nuke in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Israel strikes Iran before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Another Houthi strike on Israel before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.71
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$8.81
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$483Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+72.3%+$349.26
Israel military action against Iran before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$26.96
Israel military action against Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+900%+$180
All 19 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT1361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+113.8%+$102.4
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Iga Swiatek win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$8.56
Wimbledon: Sinner vs. Djokovic backed Sinner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$10.77
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.07
Wimbledon: Sabalenka vs. Anisimova (W) backed Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Ben Shelton win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Wimbledon: Sinner vs. Shelton backed Sinner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$6.43
Wimbledon: Swiatek vs. Samsonova (W) backed Swiatek · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$5.97
Wimbledon: Anisimova vs. Pavlyuchenkovabacked Anisimova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$4.71
Wimbledon: Kartal vs. Pavlyuchenkova (W) backed Pavlyuchenkova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$4.65
Wimbledon: Sabalenka vs. Raducanu (W)backed Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+25%+$7.4
Will Lorenzo Musetti win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.34
All 13 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST1225%3 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-54.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than 200k employees in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+72.4%+$60.83
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+29.9%+$11.5
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25.2
US government shutdown in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Trump approval Up or Down this week?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT+146.2%+$32.49
Israel military action against Iran in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.63
Andrew Cuomo gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
US-EU trade agreement by July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.65
Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during the press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.12
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D Housebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$50
All 12 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST1136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
MLB — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$21
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Rangers vs. Angelsbacked Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$16.36
Mariners vs. Athleticsbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$20.82
Mets vs. Padresbacked Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$22.55
Padres vs. Diamondbacksbacked Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Twins vs. Astrosbacked Twins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Yankees vs. Red Soxbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Angels vs. Oriolesbacked Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$12.78
Reds vs. Tigersbacked Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 11 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST110%0 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$22
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$22
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$40.17
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$659Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$659.26
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$80
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$40
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$60
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$20
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$438Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$437.58
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$334Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$333.84
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 11 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid+126.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+1,016.5%+$762.41
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+678.5%+$1,261.38
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$125.38
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$18.5
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$283Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$127.25
Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 15+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Trump say "Hottest Country" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump say "Marco" or "Rubio" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 9 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2025, EST683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick50cpaid+59.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-70.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-75%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jun 25, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-65.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Sep 13, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 23, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$13.33
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$26.67
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved Sep 28, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Europe win the 2025 Ryder Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$17.74
Will Viktor Hovland win The 2025 U.S. Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.65
All 2 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 22, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$130
NBA Finals: Thunder vs. Pacers backed Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$17.14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Oct 14, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Taylor Swift holds top ten spots on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of October 18th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT+34.7%+$8.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$241Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+30.1%+$72.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.